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房地产波动背后藏矛盾 中国经济难逃危机
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Topic: 房地产波动背后藏矛盾 中国经济难逃危机 (Read 65 times)
ckkbiter
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房地产波动背后藏矛盾 中国经济难逃危机
January 29, 2018, 08:04:50 AM
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近日,大陆房价频现“回落”、“腰斩”、“连跌”的消息,似乎显示楼市调控正在生效。然而国际业界人士看到,中共体制下的房地产市场问题,非一个“价格下降”可解,其背后隐藏着与经济增长和债务相关的巨大矛盾和危机。
大陆的楼市调控政策包括提高房贷首付要求、提高按揭利率等,大规模调控从2016年下半年持续至今,中共官方的数次公开场合也都重点提及房地产。最近,大陆主要城市房价连跌数月的消息见诸报端。
面对大陆房价多年的飙升和最近的下降,国际业界人士提出,由于大陆房地产市场的特殊性,大陆房价无论涨与跌,在中共治下都令中国经济危机难解。
经济增长堪忧
穆迪投资者服务公司(Moody’s Investor Services)的数据显示,房地产市场大约占中国GDP增长的三分之一。
日经新闻网近日分析,房地产市场是2018年中国经济的主要危机之一。中共实行土地公有制,中国房地产市场交易的只是一定年限的土地使用权,现实是,房地产是中国经济的“支柱产业”,因为中共中央和地方政府都要依赖出售土地使用权的收入。
海外评论员张岩认为,日益膨胀的中国房地产泡沫令中共恐惧,但同时,由于中共长期以来为了维持政权而大搞短期刺激、脱实向虚的做法,早已把房地产与中国经济捆绑在一起,房价涨则泡沫风险加剧,跌则带动经济下滑。
《南华早报》英文版引述分析师的预测分析,2017年中国的GDP增长的主要因素包括出口房地产,今年房地产市场降温将令经济增长与去杠杆难以达到平衡。
按揭债务危机
近日,美国地产专业媒体The Real Deal引述分析人士警告,北京和上海的房价多年呈现两位数上涨,从2016年11月至2017年11月下降了0.3%,这引发了业界对中国按揭危机的担忧,一些观察人士担心,承受按揭贷款重负的中国业主,可能陷入麻烦。
英国《金融时报》去年6月的评论文章中就提及,在中共看来,把债务从政府和企业转移到家庭,是在“解决”经济难题,所以这是中共乐于去做的,但是其隐藏的危机是,如果房地产大幅下跌,购房者的财富一夜间化为乌有,违约和贷款者撤资将大规模出现,银行和地方政府也将面临巨大的危机。
PNC金融服务集团经济学家Bill Adams说,中国购房者是房地产领域更易受损的一方,他们的购房成本超出其收入水平,他们没有家庭财富,尤其是那些从小城市和农村来到大城市的人们。
澳洲联邦银行矿业和能源大宗商品分析师Vivek Dhar分析认为,虽然调控使中国楼市出现降温,但是中国的按揭贷款却持续攀升,去年全年增幅超过20%。
最近大陆的一些银行又曝出丑闻,银行与房产中介、融资担保公司联手,向申请房贷的业主提供“按揭贷款+消费贷”形式的首付贷。
而其中引发关注的是,银行对申请这种贷款客户的收入要求不高,甚至工资流水部分可以由担保公司来包装。分析人士认为,中国房价多年涨势已经远超过居民的收入水平,其背后隐藏着巨大的按揭债务危机。
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