subpoena was from dec 6, more panic selling, more FUD.
That is exactly what's scary.
1. how much time does it take for them to prove they have the fiat? 2 months?? why would that be??
2. & thus, when will the case close? And how can you imagine the market going forward again before everything has been cleared up?
Plus, this is happening at the same time as there are suspicions around Bitstamp's solvability, with so many people having withdraw & deposit problems. And Bitstamp too prefers to keep its mouth shut. I don't even see how Bitstamp would NOT have the fiat that people brought in (they have no leverage, no margin), other than by heavy fraud.
The AMOUNT of traded Bitcoin within Tether is very small. Actually, most ALTCOINS will suffer the most in the case of a Tethering/tether collapse, NOT Bitcoin.
This is once again FUD and if the price of Bitcoin dips it will be once again due the huge amount of morons holding Bitcoin, not because of any real fundamentals. It will be scared noobs reading Reddit and CNN, not because this poses any systemic risk to the market.
Well, the smart people will be able to once again, amass a lot of BTC if it goes cheap.
First, how do you know this, that the amount of traded BTC with Tether is small? We're not even talking about what's traded right now, but what has been traded months ago when it was much cheaper. And then combine this with leverage & margin.
Second, aren't you contradicting yourself? "amass a lot of BTC if it goes cheap". Are you saying that it is NOT cheap at the moment? Well, that's a pretty good reason to SELL (what I just did, partially). Sell, & buy cheaper later.
It's not about whether the BTC will rise again, but about whether it will go lower. And it going lower has nothing to do with its "real" value (which is very subjective anyway), but about today's perception.
So I'd say if the Tether case takes too long to clear up, it's gonna dip deeper. And then it will depend on whether Tether is legit or not.
But the scariest for me is that this Tether case should normally result in crypto RISING. I mean, if no one wanna hold Tethers, they just buy stuff. So crypto dipping even more can only mean one thing: money getting out of exchanges, into bank accounts, that's much worse. And that also means that if Tether is bs, it may be discovered the hard way pretty soon.
Also consider what is a weak hand. Strong hands don't have more solid minds, they're just those who bought so cheap that they just can't lose anymore.
I bought a lot of mine around 5keur. Do you know how I felt when it later dipped from 16keur to 12k? I didn't give a shit! It was still way higher than I had hoped. But 8k (10k usd) was my limit. It touching 8k once, that's ok, it's gonna get back up. Twice.. doubt.. Third time, I sell, enough to get my initial investment back.
And that's why I think it's gonna dip pretty quickly now: it's now gonna make investors of 3 months ago, which were much less, become weak hands too. It's not unrealistic to imagine it going back to 5keur or even 3k pretty quickly.
It's very likely that it's gonna be (much) higher than now at the end of the year. But by not selling before a possible massive dip, you'll be missing a lot of potential BTC's.
Those you call morons may end up gathering more BTC's than you, if the market dips even more. If it doesn't, then you win by holding. But let's not pretend that what will happen next week is so predictable. You're not selling, well if next week it has dipped a lot, you are the moron.
What you can FUD is risk taking. You're holding because you don't wanna take risks, the risk of the BTC rising again right after you've sold. Well, it's all about risk.. You didn't take the risk to sell, perhaps you could have doubled your BTCs. It's only FUD when you sell without a plan to buy back. Judging by how short past crashes have been, that's most likely what they are, not FUD, but risk taking.
Btw, anyone knows if Kraken is too exclusively based on Tethers? It doesn't look like it, since it has its own Tether/USD market. I mean if Kraken's USD was actually USDT, it wouldn't let you trade USDs for USDT, I guess.
As long as the market doesn't take a dive below our most recent bottom of slightly over $9200, there is not much to worry about -- people shouldn't panic just because the market dipped below $10k.
This isn't the usual abrupt crash in crypto, though. You know when it dips 50% and goes back up the next day. This is slow (well, for crypto) and the trend seems to get clearer. As you wrote, we just got a "most recent bottom". Perhaps next week that bottom will be $8500, and you will still think "no need to panic until it goes below that". I find this downtrend more scary than a quick dip, because you have the time to get used to it.
