September and October will be eventful.

[Vladimir]

.

[1714992387]

1714992387

[bitwhizz]

We are on the verge of panic buying and seller strikes. Once price breaks 170$, which could be next week, the bulls will go berserk and all those who hoped to buy once it crashes will surrender and buy back at loss.

I know lots of long time Bitcoin bulls who are patiently waiting for a crash with loads of fiat. I know too many of those temporarily bearish bulls. I do not think that their strategy will be profitable. Too many people are waiting with fiat to pick up cheap coins. It will not happen this time, they will have to buy back at higher price.

Look at the chart right now. Only during 11 days ever the price was higher than it is now.  Only during 5 days the price was above 141$ for most of the day and the volume during those days was rather mediocre.  On the other hand days, that marked bottom prices had huge volume. Everyone, but those who sold coins in history of Bitcoin but in those 11 days above 141$ with intention to buy back (and still has not bought) is being hurt now. Emotions are starting to boil. It is kind of prisoner dilemma for them.

Expect a bunch of elephants to try to squeeze into Bitcoin room via a tiny door of roughly 50-100kBTC available on sale at price below of all time high. Buy popcorn. September and October will be eventful.

this +1

[marcovaldo]

If someone expects the price to drop, he will never buy at loss.
You don't trade with feelings or emotions. You trade with a strategy.


And I think that the recent increase in price will be inverted, after everyone withdraw his btc from mt.gox, and people start understanding that current price is overrated.

[smoothie]

(stocked up on Popcorn) 

[marcovaldo]

Seriously!?

The real world is a lot different from what you think it is. I do not want to offend you, but what is quoted above is just so not true, it hurts. To clarify, I do not trade at all, but most trades out there are driven by two simple emotions: fear and greed. In Bitcoin even more so than in other markets.

Who trades with fear and greed? If you don't trade yourself, how would you know?
You only trade with money you can freely lose, so what would you be afraid of?


I'm trading bitcoins, and I am not greedy, I have a strategy with "take profits" and "stop loss". I don't change it because I feel it right to change it  

[seldon]

And I think that the recent increase in price will be inverted, after everyone withdraw his btc from mt.gox, and people start understanding that current price is overrated.

This seems to be the prevalent explanation of recent rises, however I don't see how this goes along with rises on other exchanges? If gox withdrawal is the driving force shouldn't we see the spread increase? Rather it seems bitstamp if closing in (percent-wise)

[marcovaldo]

This seems to be the prevalent explanation of recent rises, however I don't see how this goes along with rises on other exchanges? If gox withdrawal is the driving force shouldn't we see the spread increase? Rather it seems bitstamp if closing in (percent-wise)

1 week ago, the difference between mt.gox and bitstamp was 10 usd.
Currently, it is 15.5 usd. So, the gap is increasing.



Mt.gox is still, somehow, a "reference", but it will change soon I guess.

[smoothie]

Seriously!?

The real world is a lot different from what you think it is. I do not want to offend you, but what is quoted above is just so not true, it hurts. To clarify, I do not trade at all, but most trades out there are driven by two simple emotions: fear and greed. In Bitcoin even more so than in other markets.

Who trades with fear and greed? If you don't trade yourself, how would you know?
You only trade with money you can freely lose, so what would you be afraid of?


I'm trading bitcoins, and I am not greedy, I have a strategy with "take profits" and "stop loss". I don't change it because I feel it right to change it  

I don't think the discussion is about YOU, but the market of traders as a whole. They trade on greed and fear (the majority).

[RationalSpeculator]

We are on the verge of panic buying and seller strikes. Once price breaks 170$, which could be next week, the bulls will go berserk and all those who hoped to buy once it crashes will surrender and buy back at loss.

I know lots of long time Bitcoin bulls who are patiently waiting for a crash with loads of fiat. I know too many of those temporarily bearish bulls. I do not think that their strategy will be profitable. Too many people are waiting with fiat to pick up cheap coins. It will not happen this time. They will have to buy back at a higher price.

Look at the daily chart right now. Only during 11 days ever the price was higher than it is now.  Only during 5 days the price was above 141$ for most of the day and the the volume during those days was rather mediocre.  On the other hand, days that marked bottom prices had huge volume. Everyone, but those who sold coins any day other than those 11, above 141$, with intention to buy back (and still has not bought), is being hurt now. Emotions are starting to boil. It is kind of prisoner dilemma for them.

Expect a bunch of elephants to try to squeeze into Bitcoin room via a tiny door of roughly 50-100kBTC available on sale at a price below of the all time high 266$. Buy popcorn. September and October will be eventful.

You are right.

However your post is primed to trigger those emotions as it is basically a victory song for the buy and hold strategy. A strategy that at todays price indeed proved to be a better one for most.

I must admit I start to feel the fear myself. Only a month ago my trading strategy came out way ahead of a buy and hold, but now it's equal again.

Was it all for nothing? Will I miss the train?

You think yes. I know not. I kept some, I sold some, and statistically the chances are in fact much higher that a collapse below $100 will happen again before the end of the year.

Popcorn - and - fiat ready

[HeliKopterBen]

Close but I think maybe a bit more rally followed by sideways for two to three months.  Perhaps a panic dip at the end just to flush out a few remaining week hands and then the panic buying ensues.

[marcovaldo]

Lol, even the worst website for wannabe-traders explains in the first steps / lessons that you should not trade with emotions.
Everyone should trade with money he can afford to lose, that would be the second lesson.

And I'm speaking about websites designed to people who know anything about trading / finance like (in French): http://www.forexagone.com/


People who took a loan and invested everything in bitcoins and only trading with fear to lose everything and greed to make more money are just plain stupid. If you consider themselves as a majority: lol. That might be their first mistakes as beginners, but they won't do it twice...

[RationalSpeculator]

I know lots of long time Bitcoin bulls who are patiently waiting for a crash with loads of fiat.

How many do you know if you are willing to share?

You might be exaggerating the number?

[smoothie]

Well... 10 to 15. I also infer that there are lots more.

I know of 2 whales.

[RationalSpeculator]

Well... 10 to 15. I also infer that there are lots more.

Also just look at this kind of sentiment https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=285076.0 it is like all over this forum.

That's a lot of people I admit.

Sentiment is divided. You can read a lot of 'will buy lower' indeed, but also still a lot of permabulls and buy and holders around, who become more outspoken today, like you, which is another indicator this market is ready to turn.

Also, we all talk our books, unconsciously or not. Are you aware that your book is a permabull one?  ("I do not trade at all")

[RationalSpeculator]

Also, we all talk our books, unconsciously or not. Are you aware that your book is a permabull one?  ("I do not trade at all")

Yes, I am aware. No argument here.

So how has the ride been for you the past months?

I'm asking since I am really tempted to change to your strategy.

The only thing that worries me, will I be able to handle the sometimes devastating losses? Were you?

[goxed]

Have fun guys. Fun time has begun !!!
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg360zigWeeklyztgSza1gSMAzm1g7za2gEMAzm2g14zxzi1gUOzi2gMACDzi3gRSIzi4gCCIzvzl

[DrJoeGrine]

There will definitely be some action in September for sure as the Fed will announce if they will end Quantitative Easing or continue with QE3. If they reduce or stop QE3, money will be flowing out of the stock market and looking for somewhere else to make a profit, not saying it will all come to BTC, but even a small % will have large effects for BTC. Not to mention the speculation with the BTC ETF being approved or denied which will have a major impact on BTC price. I am feeling bullish about BTC price as everything seems to favor upward gains at the moment for BTC.

[NamelessOne]

Seriously!?

The real world is a lot different from what you think it is. I do not want to offend you, but what is quoted above is just so not true, it hurts. To clarify, I do not trade at all, but most trades out there are driven by two simple emotions: fear and greed. In Bitcoin even more so than in other markets.

Who trades with fear and greed? If you don't trade yourself, how would you know?
You only trade with money you can freely lose, so what would you be afraid of?


I'm trading bitcoins, and I am not greedy, I have a strategy with "take profits" and "stop loss". I don't change it because I feel it right to change it  

LOL come on, clearly you aren't aware that most people aren't expert traders. Sure YOU might trade on pure logic and strategy, which is the best way to go, but most people aren't that controlled and this is pretty much common knowledge. Bitcoin is the ultimate example of fear and greed controlling peoples trades. The insane price swings from 266 all the way to 50 in days are lead by traders emotional panic and desire to get as much money as possible, either going up or down.

[DrJoeGrine]

Agree. Only with low volatile asset trading can you easily separate emotions with logic. BTC however, is highly volatile, it can gain $20 today, lose $40 tomorrow. High volatility in my opinion is normally high emotions and uncertainty. Your typical investment rational strategy is not effective with highly volatile assets.

[sunnankar]

We are on the verge of panic buying and seller strikes.  ....

Expect a bunch of elephants to try to squeeze into Bitcoin room via a tiny door of roughly 50-100kBTC available on sale at a price below of the all time high 266$. Buy popcorn. September and October will be eventful.

I think you may be underestimating where the price could go this fall.

I have been in NYC the past two weeks working on several very significant Bitcoin related projects. I think there is a possibility we could see a major price melt-up based on fundamentals to $1,000+, perhaps even $5,000+ and then a crash if the markets get particularly unruly, bitcoins over the next 6 months.