If it's all just FUD, then...

[juicyjanet88]

So it's no secret that the market and bitcoin included have been crashing in the last couple weeks, hitting a low around 9k and then lingering around 10k and now looking to retest that bottom again. It seems like it's been bad news after bad news and then a lot of FUD around that. Here's what I don't get.

If we buy in to the logic that at these prices only the weak hands should sell out of fear, because the price is so low and a recovery is bound to come along, then surely there is only a finite number of these people that are willing to sell at such 'low' prices. You would assume that most people with a willingness to sell around 10k would have already done so, so why do we keep having more and more people selling and pushing the price down?

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[Skunker]

mybe bicouse people think this is not bottom 🤔 mybe bicouse they belevie fuds well mybe they are real or mybe bicouse there is no new money coming on the market, exchanges are close for registration. or mybe we just watch how the "bubble" is loosing his volume and will burst quite soon. well all is mybe. but the thruth is we dont know much, but we can protect ourself with not to be so greedy and collect the profits while they are still on the table, step back wait a bit see what will happen and then continue. if you guys call that a week hand. go ahead  keep holding and let the wind do his job.

[alia]

When panic sets in, plans go to shit. Sure, many people convince themselves they're gonna buy the dip, but when the dip actually happens, they can't bring themselves to buy it. They give in to human nature and actually sell, instead of going by their original plan. As the price crashes lower and lower, this magnifies and we see people selling due to fear - this is exacerbated by the cascading margin calls. Eventually there comes an inflection point (usually caused by a megabuy or very good news), the panic is erased and the market storms upwards again. Even with all this info, it takes a very strong mind to be able to trade this effectively.

[Cryptodude2020]

So it's no secret that the market and bitcoin included have been crashing in the last couple weeks, hitting a low around 9k and then lingering around 10k and now looking to retest that bottom again. It seems like it's been bad news after bad news and then a lot of FUD around that. Here's what I don't get.

If we buy in to the logic that at these prices only the weak hands should sell out of fear, because the price is so low and a recovery is bound to come along, then surely there is only a finite number of these people that are willing to sell at such 'low' prices. You would assume that most people with a willingness to sell around 10k would have already done so, so why do we keep having more and more people selling and pushing the price down?

Very valid and puzzling question however people's trust in Crypto is still very very weak. This is specially true for most of the people who know very little and mostly invested due to all the new and hype in late 2017. The FUDs are not helping either and end result will be a lot of these newbie will lose their money and feed more fire to this FUD. The market is sure to go up however as no one as good answer or reason why, these newbie are loosing patience (and may be worried what if they loose more).

We need a few good news to pump the gas in right direction and once that happen people will jump the boat again to start buying.

my 2 coins ....

[Raigeki.]

If you are into crypto before.. you will mind this as an opportunity to buy... This is the best time to buy... whenever it gets lower, just buy it....

[sltshp]

Just remember that markets are always cyclical...there will be ups and there will be downs. Always enter and exit at a price you're comfortable at, and have the fortitude to hodl when times are bad , and sell when times are good.

[jseverson]

People sell for varying reasons. It would be unrealistic to expect everyone to not touch their coins and simply HODL. Traders could be dumping their Bitcoins for surging alts for a quick profit, for example. I'm sure panic selling of weak hands is kind of a factor, but it's just as likely that not many people are interested in buying Bitcoin at the moment, considering that its growth has stalled.

Really though, a drop like this could be chalked up to normal market movement. No one can really tell, but I'd hazard a guess that it'll bounce back sooner rather than later.

[franky1]

So it's no secret that the market and bitcoin included have been crashing in the last couple weeks, hitting a low around 9k and then lingering around 10k and now looking to retest that bottom again. It seems like it's been bad news after bad news and then a lot of FUD around that. Here's what I don't get.

If we buy in to the logic that at these prices only the weak hands should sell out of fear, because the price is so low and a recovery is bound to come along, then surely there is only a finite number of these people that are willing to sell at such 'low' prices. You would assume that most people with a willingness to sell around 10k would have already done so, so why do we keep having more and more people selling and pushing the price down?

the truth is that although there are 16.8mill bitcoins.. hardly any are on exchanges
there have been times where it only takes less than $1k of a users money, to move the whole market cap by $168million

EG
if there was a orderline of 0.1btc and filing it changed the price from $10,060 to $10,070... thats a market cap change of $168m caused by buying 0.1btc($1k)

yep.. thats right.. i said it. bitcoin price/market cap is not true value


in short the bitcoin price or market value can be manipulated cheaply. this is not due to supply/demand. because the real supply demand is not found on exchanges. a large % of exchange trades are day traders, playing on speculation(gambling) not hoarders/sellers.

if there were 16mill coins on an exchange.. and they were forced to put their coins on the line at the lowest price they would be willing to sell for. you would see a far different resistance point(much higher) then these exchanges are 'playing' with

just look at most exchanges where the order lines are just mbtc/satoshi amounts .. not millions of bitcoin amount

[Dapper]

I don't know about anyone else, but I can HODL to around $800 per coin, but I should also mention, that within my exchange accounts, my non-HODL funds I have mostly moved over to ETH and other alts.    BTC will likely recover, but I'm not going to sit around on my hands when there is so much movement in the market over 3-4 day spreads where trading profits can be made.

[richardsNY]

Really though, a drop like this could be chalked up to normal market movement. No one can really tell, but I'd hazard a guess that it'll bounce back sooner rather than later.

It should bounce back, but the thing is that this market tends to exaggerate the situation badly, which results in the market either to get overbought, or heavily oversold. Main point of importance is that the latest articles regarding Bitfinex come at a time where there is already so much fud going through the market, where we also have to take into consideration that people were expecting Bitfinex to go nuts. Bloomberg did well in causing a bit of panic in the market by wrongly (I believe it was done so on purpose) stating the date the subpoenas were sent -- it happened on December 6th, and not just recently this year. That however doesn't mean nothing will happen from Bitfinex's side in the coming weeks or months, which is why I prefer to hold a conservative stance till the air get cleared by either Bitfinex or the regulators.

[t0nberry]

So it's no secret that the market and bitcoin included have been crashing in the last couple weeks, hitting a low around 9k and then lingering around 10k and now looking to retest that bottom again. It seems like it's been bad news after bad news and then a lot of FUD around that. Here's what I don't get.

If we buy in to the logic that at these prices only the weak hands should sell out of fear, because the price is so low and a recovery is bound to come along, then surely there is only a finite number of these people that are willing to sell at such 'low' prices. You would assume that most people with a willingness to sell around 10k would have already done so, so why do we keep having more and more people selling and pushing the price down?

Weak hands aside. There's two very big reasons why it can keep going down.

The first which no one has responded to you about yet is the derivatives market. Now that people can "short" BTC through forex platforms etc they can make money from selling before buying. There's no loss to them if they're pushing the market down, on the contrary it's where their profit comes from, the lower the better for them.

Second reason is the fact that there are still huge amounts of people (prob the majority) that are way way ahead still, like at 2x or more if they bought pre December. That's a hell of a return still even if they do pull out now. No other market will they see that return in such a short time so they haven't lost if they sell, they just didn't make it to the moon. Stratosphere is acceptable to them.