Historic BITCOIN crash

[rexona]

Yes, indeed this situation often happens, and this is not the worst, hopefully it does not get any worse, now it's best to buy and hold it, I hope this situation quickly ends, and back to normal in february, for situations better.

[Zyborg]

Thanks for your Historic Percentage comparison.If we analyze all of these crashes our mind will certainly think that why it rose again and again.Due to series of crash still people around the globe put their investment in BTC trading,they understand that BTC is a pioneer in the digital currency,it has huge potential to offer something to its investor.Its crash history clarifies that it has potential to correct every year.2017 was breakout year for BTC,It rose to top height 19783 and went down by 33%.Lets be bullish on its price in 2018 a tremendous increase in 2018.

[zarados]

Bitcoin is overpriced. If people hold bitcoin will never reach $20k. We should sell.

On what basis do you say that? no wonder, maybe you are still new in the realm of cryptocurrency. What needs to be underlined is the limited number of bitcoins while the demand keeps increasing every year. Back to the law of demand and supply, when demand is high, prices will go higher. Meanwhile, the survey showed 60% of USA residents know about bitcoin and only 5% have. Only 5% and it represents the average number of people around the world who have bitcoins. Do you still think bitcoin overprice?

For example, if we compare bitcoin with gold by market capitalization,

My prediction with a simple calculation that compares the bitcoin market cap bitcoin and gold market cap.
current bitcoin market cap = $ 199 B
current gold market cap = $ 8.2 T
current bitcoin price = $ 11,872
$ 8.2 T / $ 199 B = 41.2
bitcoin need 41.2 times current market cap to reach the gold market.
Possible price is
41.2 x 11.872 = $ 489,197
With very fast bitcoin growth, $ 1M / btc may still be practically reasonable.

[deviltasha]

let me remind you of this, that this is not the first time bitcoin has crashed very significantly and is not the worst of it all. (correct me if i'm wrong) Based on bitcoin history, crashes occur on:

2011 jun- Nov: -97%---> From $ 32 to $ 2
2012 jan - Aug: -36%---> From from $ 7 to $ 4
2013 Mar 6 -11: -25%---> From $ 49 to $ 36
2013 Apr 10: -79%---> From $ 266 to $ 54
2014 Feb 24: -49%---> From $ 867 to $ 439
2017 jun 11-16: -36%---> From $ 3,000 to $ 1.869
2017 Sept 2-15: -40%---> From $ 5,000 to $ 2,972
2018 Jan 17: -48%---> From $ 19,783 to $ 9,496

If viewed from history, crashes often happen every year since 2011 and proved that this year is not the worst year of the year - the year before. What do you think, whether this crash will continue or not?

Yes, and hope as always bitcoin will recover.

[Vatimins]

let me remind you of this, that this is not the first time bitcoin has crashed very significantly and is not the worst of it all. (correct me if i'm wrong) Based on bitcoin history, crashes occur on:

2011 jun- Nov: -97%---> From $ 32 to $ 2
2012 jan - Aug: -36%---> From from $ 7 to $ 4
2013 Mar 6 -11: -25%---> From $ 49 to $ 36
2013 Apr 10: -79%---> From $ 266 to $ 54
2014 Feb 24: -49%---> From $ 867 to $ 439
2017 jun 11-16: -36%---> From $ 3,000 to $ 1.869
2017 Sept 2-15: -40%---> From $ 5,000 to $ 2,972
2018 Jan 17: -48%---> From $ 19,783 to $ 9,496

If viewed from history, crashes often happen every year since 2011 and proved that this year is not the worst year of the year - the year before. What do you think, whether this crash will continue or not?

     great observation. i just wish a lot would also be doing the same before believing other people's predictions that are mainly fud and spreading these unverified fuds(to do their own research and observation). because clearly, if everyone does this, i am sure that less people will be losing big capitals(due to the fact they they are investing in the wrong time) or losing the chance to get a higher potential profit.


      now, although i can say that your observation is quite good, this is not enough to justify dip of this year. because even though the percentage of the drop is somehow kind of reassuring, i honestly think that this year's dip time frame(the speed or how fast the dip has happened) is somewhat the fastest compared to the past years which happened all in just a month. but that doesn't mean that this is something that is really bad. in fact, i see this as a healthy thing to happen for the crypto world. its just that the speed of the dip really worries me. but nevertheless, i still believe in bitcoins and still am invested on it. my point is that, before investing, every investor should really do the needed research and study their decisions very hard. they owe it to themselves.


EDIT : i gave you a merit because you clearly deserved one. good day.

[wagi]

let me remind you of this, that this is not the first time bitcoin has crashed very significantly and is not the worst of it all. (correct me if i'm wrong) Based on bitcoin history, crashes occur on:

2011 jun- Nov: -97%---> From $ 32 to $ 2
2012 jan - Aug: -36%---> From from $ 7 to $ 4
2013 Mar 6 -11: -25%---> From $ 49 to $ 36
2013 Apr 10: -79%---> From $ 266 to $ 54
2014 Feb 24: -49%---> From $ 867 to $ 439
2017 jun 11-16: -36%---> From $ 3,000 to $ 1.869
2017 Sept 2-15: -40%---> From $ 5,000 to $ 2,972
2018 Jan 17: -48%---> From $ 19,783 to $ 9,496

If viewed from history, crashes often happen every year since 2011 and proved that this year is not the worst year of the year - the year before. What do you think, whether this crash will continue or not?

As i said to people earlier, this correction is happen every and this is not the worst one.
But i dont have the proof of it. But you post the list here and its good to inform every not to panic at all.

[johnnys101]

I understand corrections happen and I fully expect the market to recover from this, but I always see the expectation for recovery no matter what. Many people think it is very cyclical and predictable. That is never the case. Why do I always see 'bitcoin will bounce back' posts but never 'this is what will have to happen for bitcoin to never recover'. I understand the chances that Bitcoin crashes forever are slim to none, but we must calculate all possibilities. At what point does Bitcoin have to reach before the sentiment is that we will not recover? Or better yet, that it will not recover to previous highs. I keep seeing Bullish statements and positivism is a good virtue to have, but for once I'd like to see an argument in the other direction. Does it have to drop down 98% before we would have bearish thoughts? Does it have to lose so much in a certain period of time? Like I said, I am positive it's a simple correction and that we will atleast hit $50k Bitcoin in 3 months, my opinion, but I would just like to see counter arguments.

[laowang666]

I think it's quite normal, and it won't make bitcoin go extinct.
This is a corrective adjustment for the better development of bitcoin.
It will soon return to normal.

[Noctis Connor]

No one can tell what may happen next. It still the system will create and make the changes. Dont depend on the history of it because sometimes there is still a miracle and magic. One day, maybe it will be boom which people will be proud and shock of. So just be responsible and wait for the perfect oppurtunity.

[Chris314]

Corrections, not really crash. We're still higher than where we were 3 months ago. Bitcoin price jumped too fast at the end of last year, it wasn't sustainable to keep so high prices.
Now we're still around the 10k$ support, which haven't been really broken yet. It may however if bad news still occur in the near future. We may go down to 8 or 6k$ eventually.

[Nahl]

makes previous histories crash for reference bitcoin price movement indeed that's pretty good because we can determine time to sell or time to hold but in my opinion every year will not always same happened and this year was very curious to figure out whether the price will recover soon or the price will decrease again

[Rajamuda]

It's just like being a drama, the story of the price movements almost resembles the price developments in the past, but of course there are still other new factors that will affect it, we can't be really sure.. it will happening again like the past. We just can take the utilized in any conditions to makes profits.

[Tonygold1967]

let me remind you of this, that this is not the first time bitcoin has crashed very significantly and is not the worst of it all. (correct me if i'm wrong) Based on bitcoin history, crashes occur on:

2011 jun- Nov: -97%---> From $ 32 to $ 2
2012 jan - Aug: -36%---> From from $ 7 to $ 4
2013 Mar 6 -11: -25%---> From $ 49 to $ 36
2013 Apr 10: -79%---> From $ 266 to $ 54
2014 Feb 24: -49%---> From $ 867 to $ 439
2017 jun 11-16: -36%---> From $ 3,000 to $ 1.869
2017 Sept 2-15: -40%---> From $ 5,000 to $ 2,972
2018 Jan 17: -48%---> From $ 19,783 to $ 9,496

If viewed from history, crashes often happen every year since 2011 and proved that this year is not the worst year of the year - the year before. What do you think, whether this crash will continue or not?

Thanks for reminding for crypto society, that it is normal situation.

[michael shikany]

There is a big drop every January to February.
I'm used to it, and by the end of February, bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency market will be green again, not to worry.

[kinzey]

I think that it will continue for a while then rebound around March. Not as significantly as it was, but still settle a bit and slowly rise. The more people that get involved the stronger it will ultimately become. The only thing then to do is to help stop fud and misinformation.

You are right about fud and misinformation. Also the people who believes the news without understanding and learning about bitcoin. We all need to learn and understand what we are doing in btc. The people spreading those news are taking advantage of gullable investors who believes everything.

[zhangfeng666]

I think it's a normal adjustment.
Bitcoin does not die from such adjustments.
It will soon return to normal.

[dinofelis]

let me remind you of this, that this is not the first time bitcoin has crashed very significantly and is not the worst of it all. (correct me if i'm wrong) Based on bitcoin history, crashes occur on:

2011 jun- Nov: -97%---> From $ 32 to $ 2
2012 jan - Aug: -36%---> From from $ 7 to $ 4
2013 Mar 6 -11: -25%---> From $ 49 to $ 36
2013 Apr 10: -79%---> From $ 266 to $ 54
2014 Feb 24: -49%---> From $ 867 to $ 439
2017 jun 11-16: -36%---> From $ 3,000 to $ 1.869
2017 Sept 2-15: -40%---> From $ 5,000 to $ 2,972
2018 Jan 17: -48%---> From $ 19,783 to $ 9,496

If viewed from history, crashes often happen every year since 2011 and proved that this year is not the worst year of the year - the year before. What do you think, whether this crash will continue or not?

You are looking at relatively high frequencies (that is: the order of days or weeks).  You can say that bitcoin has a potentially high volatility on the order of days or weeks.  Volatility is to be seen as a frequency spectrum.

What is more interesting, I think, are much longer-range movements.  I can see 2 similar movements in the past, when you look over a range of the order of a year or longer, where we see retractions of the order of an order of magnitude.  Bitcoin has known essentially these long-range movements:

1) an upwards movement from $0.1 in 2010 to an ATH in summer of 2011 ($30), followed by a crash of a factor of 10 in the year that followed ($3).

2) an upwards movement from that low $3 up to an ATH in December of 2013 ($1100) followed by a crash of a factor of 6 in the two years that follow ($200) in 2015.

3) an upwards movement from that low $200 up to an ATH in December of 2017 ($20000) followed by ...

It is true that the upwards movement in (2) from $3 all the way up to $1200 has been seen a pause after a high of $150 in April 2013 by a correction back down  to $76 in July 2013 before the final uprun to near $1200 in December 2013.  Note that the correction was of the order of 50%.

So are we now in such a similar correction, before a next up run before the real crash, or is the next crash down by an order of magnitude already in motion, hard to say.

It seems reasonable to assume that the crash set in, because of the size of the up run.  The first up run was x300.  The second up run was x400.  The "correction" in Summer 2013 was after an up run of about x50.  It was followed by another up - run of x8 before crashing for good.

We have seen the last up run being a factor of x100.  Is that small enough to allow for a correction and next smaller up run, or is that big enough for a genuine crash ?

We've seen, on a shorter time scale, that the crash periods are long, and punctuated by a lot of bull traps.  

[olubams]

Seeing the comparative analysis showed the one happening at this time is the one that is massive because the past have been overcome already we only need to face the future which is why I am focusing on that. But it will be wrong to assume that the fall happened this year because right from last year, the price has been dropping real hard. In all I am not perturbed and even dumping all at this moment wont be the right choice what matter is what are we going to do about it? With all forces coming against it, this year is going to be a long walk to victory.

[poplolnman]

There are not really any bad news that are driving this, my conspiracy theory is that there will be a breakout soon and whales are pushing the price down now, to scare the speculators and the newbie traders. They need to buy more cheap coins and the only way to get people to sell their coins, is for them to artificially create a fake "dump".  ^hmmmmm^

Once the price reach a very low point, they will quickly buy up these cheap coins and more newbies and speculators will be pushed out of the market.

As per your statement it's seems some people are trying to make other people get bankrupt with that way , I don't think the market run as easy as like that. It's okay that's your theory. Fundamentals nowadays has big impact to the Bitcoin market, look at how the price of bitcoin soaring once korean exchange announced they would operate soon ,  back at the end of 2017. But this time I'm not sure the crash happened due some people create a panic atmosphere just like your general theory , it could be due the real huge selling occurred right?

[Prodigan786]

its really good statistic data but this time bitcoin price really over priced now its getting corrected the fair price should be around 10000$ to 12000$ . Now fudster taking advantage on each news . Its just normal panic crash but price will stable around 10K to 12K.