Bitcoin's "long-term" pattern of recovering from dips is over

[timerland]

Everyone here likes to "hodl". It makes sense. Bitcoin has spiked before and provided investors with 10x return or more, and then proceeded to talk 50-80%. This is normal bitcoin behavior and seems to happen again and again, and it always seems to recover and bounce even higher. From that perspective, I totally understand people wanting to remain steadfast and hodl.

That being said, it is now over. Bitcoin is done with this pattern and will not spike again like it has in the past.

The landscape for crypto has fundamentally changed recently. Bitcoin used to be the only option for many people to invest in crypto. The reason it would rise is because there was a large, untapped population of investors who were willing to log into Coinbase and invest because it was very easy to do, and there was a lot of money to be made. Now, this is being spread out among altcoins. While bitcoin itself is championed as being this great deflationary currency, ironically, crypto as a whole is infinitely inflationary as more and more alt coins are created, and made easily accessible on services like Coinbase.

Previously it was one choice - you log into Coinbase and you buy bitcoin. Now it is 4, and this number will only rise. This, on top of government threats, and technical/scalability issues with Bitcoin, are why this pattern is over.

I do not expect Bitcoin to ever set a new all time high again.

So are you saying that right now, crypto has already reached its maximum potential? I think you'll agree with me in saying that crypto has not even unlocked half of its potential yet, I'd say that less than 10% of the world population actually has investments in crypto, and the countries which need it the most like Venezuela which has hyperinflation on a daily basis has not yet fully adopted it.

These are all potential for bitcoin to keep growing, which I believe will be the case.

Right now, there may be a "crypto winter" like people like to say. But after that there will be pumps. All time high could be broken again, or at least that's my opinion.

Of course, you shouldn't put all your eggs in one basket. Even as a bitcoin bull, I'm diversifying into silver, gold, fiat, stocks, etc. so that in any scenario, I've still got some savings left.

[gabmen]

There are 4 possibilities here:

1. This is a 2013-like interim correction that is already or almost done and will reach a new ATH within 6 months.

2. This is a 2014-like bear market that bottoms out around 3K and doesnt set a new ATH for 3 years.

3. This is the end of a 9-year 3-bubble elliot wave and a super bear market is coming where it crashes to 3K, then recovers to 8K, then crashes again to triple digits. A new ATH isnt seen for over a decade.

4. This is the end of bitcoin. No ATH ever again. The new fashion is to count ATLs since 2018.

How bearish are you? Carebear, picnic bear, grizzly bear, or Karhu?

I am #5, a.k.a not bearish, but #1 would be too neat.
I can never trade bitcoin up and down though, too much pressure.

Well of all these, number 2 would be the most likely to happen, though i'm hoping for that number one recovery. Anything is possible in crypto and perhaps i'm just not accepting the fact that 3 and 4 can actually happen because i have too much invested in btc.

[Carlsen]

Everyone here likes to "hodl". It makes sense. Bitcoin has spiked before and provided investors with 10x return or more, and then proceeded to talk 50-80%. This is normal bitcoin behavior and seems to happen again and again, and it always seems to recover and bounce even higher. From that perspective, I totally understand people wanting to remain steadfast and hodl.

That being said, it is now over. Bitcoin is done with this pattern and will not spike again like it has in the past.

The landscape for crypto has fundamentally changed recently. Bitcoin used to be the only option for many people to invest in crypto. The reason it would rise is because there was a large, untapped population of investors who were willing to log into Coinbase and invest because it was very easy to do, and there was a lot of money to be made. Now, this is being spread out among altcoins. While bitcoin itself is championed as being this great deflationary currency, ironically, crypto as a whole is infinitely inflationary as more and more alt coins are created, and made easily accessible on services like Coinbase.

Previously it was one choice - you log into Coinbase and you buy bitcoin. Now it is 4, and this number will only rise. This, on top of government threats, and technical/scalability issues with Bitcoin, are why this pattern is over.

I do not expect Bitcoin to ever set a new all time high again.

The way I see it, it was not only bitcoin that went down, all crypto currencies did.
Most altcoins evenmore than bitcoin. Only the price of ETH is now about as high as six weeks ago.
And I really do not think that the majority of the altcoins we see today will still be here in two years.
I suspect that only a few will survive, and those will create new all time highs because the money will concentrate on them again.

[burner2014]

Well of all these, number 2 would be the most likely to happen, though i'm hoping for that number one recovery. Anything is possible in crypto and perhaps i'm just not accepting the fact that 3 and 4 can actually happen because i have too much invested in btc.

Yes, of course it will really recover and it is happening right now a pump of 9% hoping that the increase in value will continue until $20k, so for those who have still time, it is the time now to hold more than you can. It is nice to see that almost all of the people here are holding and not worrying about the price.

[carlisle1]

Everyone here likes to "hodl". It makes sense. Bitcoin has spiked before and provided investors with 10x return or more, and then proceeded to talk 50-80%. This is normal bitcoin behavior and seems to happen again and again, and it always seems to recover and bounce even higher. From that perspective, I totally understand people wanting to remain steadfast and hodl.

That being said, it is now over. Bitcoin is done with this pattern and will not spike again like it has in the past.

The landscape for crypto has fundamentally changed recently. Bitcoin used to be the only option for many people to invest in crypto. The reason it would rise is because there was a large, untapped population of investors who were willing to log into Coinbase and invest because it was very easy to do, and there was a lot of money to be made. Now, this is being spread out among altcoins. While bitcoin itself is championed as being this great deflationary currency, ironically, crypto as a whole is infinitely inflationary as more and more alt coins are created, and made easily accessible on services like Coinbase.

Previously it was one choice - you log into Coinbase and you buy bitcoin. Now it is 4, and this number will only rise. This, on top of government threats, and technical/scalability issues with Bitcoin, are why this pattern is over.

I do not expect Bitcoin to ever set a new all time high again.

thank you for your post. posts like yours are telling me that bottom is getting close. the number one crypto will never go up again because of... ...other cryptos?  what you are forgetting is that every new alt coin is not only competing with bitcoin, but also with every other alt at the same time.

its happening mate,look at the market now everything comes to green,early today its all blood in the market,so im pretty sure this is the start of the recovery that we had waited for how many weeks.lets all pray that this trend will continue until the target price for bitcoin achieved,even if not the $20,000 atleast $15-17,000 is enough for

[dinofelis]

The way I see it, it was not only bitcoin that went down, all crypto currencies did.
Most altcoins evenmore than bitcoin. Only the price of ETH is now about as high as six weeks ago.

In fact, no.  Bitcoin and the rest of the crypto market are EXTREMELY in sync.  Even though the market crashed near 50%, bitcoin's market share has remained in the 33%-35% window.  That's hard to explain, unless there's an active regulation mechanism: are ALL altcoin traders keeping all the time 1/3 in bitcoin ?

Some alts go up, others go down, but bitcoin remains at a very precise 1/3 even though everything shakes for 50% or more.  Incredible.