Bitcoin's "long-term" pattern of recovering from dips is over

[ktabb]

Everyone here likes to "hodl". It makes sense. Bitcoin has spiked before and provided investors with 10x return or more, and then proceeded to talk 50-80%. This is normal bitcoin behavior and seems to happen again and again, and it always seems to recover and bounce even higher. From that perspective, I totally understand people wanting to remain steadfast and hodl.

That being said, it is now over. Bitcoin is done with this pattern and will not spike again like it has in the past.

The landscape for crypto has fundamentally changed recently. Bitcoin used to be the only option for many people to invest in crypto. The reason it would rise is because there was a large, untapped population of investors who were willing to log into Coinbase and invest because it was very easy to do, and there was a lot of money to be made. Now, this is being spread out among altcoins. While bitcoin itself is championed as being this great deflationary currency, ironically, crypto as a whole is infinitely inflationary as more and more alt coins are created, and made easily accessible on services like Coinbase.

Previously it was one choice - you log into Coinbase and you buy bitcoin. Now it is 4, and this number will only rise. This, on top of government threats, and technical/scalability issues with Bitcoin, are why this pattern is over.

I do not expect Bitcoin to ever set a new all time high again.

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[BitcoinBunny]

Everyone here likes to "hodl". It makes sense. Bitcoin has spiked before and provided investors with 10x return or more, and then proceeded to talk 50-80%. This is normal bitcoin behavior and seems to happen again and again, and it always seems to recover and bounce even higher. From that perspective, I totally understand people wanting to remain steadfast and hodl.

That being said, it is now over. Bitcoin is done with this pattern and will not spike again like it has in the past.

The landscape for crypto has fundamentally changed recently. Bitcoin used to be the only option for many people to invest in crypto. The reason it would rise is because there was a large, untapped population of investors who were willing to log into Coinbase and invest because it was very easy to do, and there was a lot of money to be made. Now, this is being spread out among altcoins. While bitcoin itself is championed as being this great deflationary currency, ironically, crypto as a whole is infinitely inflationary as more and more alt coins are created, and made easily accessible on services like Coinbase.

Previously it was one choice - you log into Coinbase and you buy bitcoin. Now it is 4, and this number will only rise. This, on top of government threats, and technical/scalability issues with Bitcoin, are why this pattern is over.

I do not expect Bitcoin to ever set a new all time high again.

Oh well we can always go back to stashing fiat and watching our stash erode away through inflation and microscopic interest rates.

Whatever you do have fun along the way. 

[markj113]

Oh well we can always go back to stashing fiat and watching our stash erode away through inflation and microscopic interest rates.

Whatever you do have fun along the way. 

Or start putting your bitcoin profits into gold and silver like I have.

[ktabb]

Oh well we can always go back to stashing fiat and watching our stash erode away through inflation and microscopic interest rates.

Whatever you do have fun along the way. 

Or you can invest in the stock market and make reliable long-term returns.
Or real estate.
Or gold.
Or fine artwork.
Or bonds.
Or all of the above.

[600watt]

Everyone here likes to "hodl". It makes sense. Bitcoin has spiked before and provided investors with 10x return or more, and then proceeded to talk 50-80%. This is normal bitcoin behavior and seems to happen again and again, and it always seems to recover and bounce even higher. From that perspective, I totally understand people wanting to remain steadfast and hodl.

That being said, it is now over. Bitcoin is done with this pattern and will not spike again like it has in the past.

The landscape for crypto has fundamentally changed recently. Bitcoin used to be the only option for many people to invest in crypto. The reason it would rise is because there was a large, untapped population of investors who were willing to log into Coinbase and invest because it was very easy to do, and there was a lot of money to be made. Now, this is being spread out among altcoins. While bitcoin itself is championed as being this great deflationary currency, ironically, crypto as a whole is infinitely inflationary as more and more alt coins are created, and made easily accessible on services like Coinbase.

Previously it was one choice - you log into Coinbase and you buy bitcoin. Now it is 4, and this number will only rise. This, on top of government threats, and technical/scalability issues with Bitcoin, are why this pattern is over.

I do not expect Bitcoin to ever set a new all time high again.

thank you for your post. posts like yours are telling me that bottom is getting close. the number one crypto will never go up again because of... ...other cryptos?  what you are forgetting is that every new alt coin is not only competing with bitcoin, but also with every other alt at the same time.

[uslfd]

while i agree there are merits of diversifying into other crypto, please note all other cryptos are still quoted in BTC. hence most people who would like to buy into cryptos other than the top 4 would still have to go through btc.

[Zicadis]

~snip~

thank you for your post. posts like yours are telling me that bottom is getting close. the number one crypto will never go up again because of... ...other cryptos?  what you are forgetting is that every new alt coin is not only competing with bitcoin, but also with every other alt at the same time.

I agree with you, the more altcoins we have on the market the more money is removed from the bitcoin pot which results in reduced share capital of bitcoin in the crypto market, but if this remains the way they are btc could become more stable and the current dip in prices could be blamed on high transaction fees which has seen btc been dropped as a payment method by big companies hope things change soon.

[alyssa85]

Oh well we can always go back to stashing fiat and watching our stash erode away through inflation and microscopic interest rates.

Whatever you do have fun along the way. 

Or you can invest in the stock market and make reliable long-term returns.
Or real estate.
Or gold.
Or fine artwork.
Or bonds.
Or all of the above.

I know you were probably being facetious - but as the Fed normalises interest rates, some investors will stop looking for exotic investments and go back to safe boring bonds. The suppressed interest rates created an appetite for risky investments because people didn't have much choice - but that era is ending. I expect the stock market to crash as well, as people rotate out of it and back into safer investments that yield an interest.

[Elwar]

I seem to recall the exact same thing being said after the 2013 jump to $1200.

[egyptian magician]

Everyone here likes to "hodl". It makes sense. Bitcoin has spiked before and provided investors with 10x return or more, and then proceeded to talk 50-80%. This is normal bitcoin behavior and seems to happen again and again, and it always seems to recover and bounce even higher. From that perspective, I totally understand people wanting to remain steadfast and hodl.

That being said, it is now over. Bitcoin is done with this pattern and will not spike again like it has in the past.

The landscape for crypto has fundamentally changed recently. Bitcoin used to be the only option for many people to invest in crypto. The reason it would rise is because there was a large, untapped population of investors who were willing to log into Coinbase and invest because it was very easy to do, and there was a lot of money to be made. Now, this is being spread out among altcoins. While bitcoin itself is championed as being this great deflationary currency, ironically, crypto as a whole is infinitely inflationary as more and more alt coins are created, and made easily accessible on services like Coinbase.

Previously it was one choice - you log into Coinbase and you buy bitcoin. Now it is 4, and this number will only rise. This, on top of government threats, and technical/scalability issues with Bitcoin, are why this pattern is over.

I do not expect Bitcoin to ever set a new all time high again.

What has "fundamentally changed"? Bitcoin has been a speculative instrument for several years now, and during that time has competed with several other alt-coins that have come and gone, as well as other exchanges. It's nothing new. As long as people are out talking about bitcoin and speculating on it, the boom/bust cycle will continue. Unless there is a "black swan" event that nobody here can account for. I would bet that in a few years, once all the new round of investors forget about it and move on, we'll see another ATH.

[egyptian magician]

I seem to recall the exact same thing being said after the 2013 jump to $1200.

And in 2012, and in 2011... OP could be right, but I doubt it.

[azguard2]

I seem to recall the exact same thing being said after the 2013 jump to $1200.

And in 2012, and in 2011... OP could be right, but I doubt it.

Pattern is the same and it could be like this again price went 6 times down so in this we can say that price can be below 5000 per bitcoin. Off course if this is the same like back in 2014 when it started. After price little recovered from 200 to 600 back then so if this is repeated then we could say price will go little over 12000.

Again if everything be the same.

[dinofelis]

The landscape for crypto has fundamentally changed recently. Bitcoin used to be the only option for many people to invest in crypto. The reason it would rise is because there was a large, untapped population of investors who were willing to log into Coinbase and invest because it was very easy to do, and there was a lot of money to be made. Now, this is being spread out among altcoins. While bitcoin itself is championed as being this great deflationary currency, ironically, crypto as a whole is infinitely inflationary as more and more alt coins are created, and made easily accessible on services like Coinbase.

Bitcoin is not a currency, but a greater-fool speculative token, that is, something that you buy at price X (you fool!) with as a goal to sell it for something like 20 X to a greater fool.  It was designed that way, even though people called it a "currency".  Like with socialism, greater fool games stop when you run out of greater fools.

But greater fools come in armies.  A small set of geeks got in in 2011, financing the gains of the very very small fools that had been heating their computers in 2010.  Then it crashed a factor of 10.  In 2013, a much bigger army of greater fools financed the gains of the hodlers of 2011 and 2012.  Then it crashed a factor of 6.  And last year, the "Koreans and Japanese" financed the gains of the hodlers of 2013-2016.  How low will it crash ?  A factor of 5 ?  A factor of 10 ?   We'll see.
The question is: is there, in this world, still a bigger army of greater fools ?  There's still the whole speculative finance market to take, but beware, these are professionals!   Bitcoin has only reached a fraction of the world population.  There's maybe still room for a last big final army of greater fools, but it will take some years.

As to "bitcoin is not the absolute monopoly", this is true, but the market is REMARKABLY synchronized.  It is as if the whole of crypto was essentially a single token.  Bitcoin has remained around 33-35% of market cap during all this falling of 60% or more, give or take a few percent.  So there seems to be one single "crypto" thing out there for greater fools.

We will see.  I table on at least 3-4 years of bear market.  It might be the final one.   But I table on a very, very big bang in something like 2021 or so.
If we go below the previous ATH, that is, $1200, I think it is done.  If we remain above it by a factor of 2, I guess we're in for a long, cold winter, and in a few years, another mega bubble.  Probably the last one.  There won't be greater fools left after they've paid for the whole shebang.

[Gameroid]

~snip~

thank you for your post. posts like yours are telling me that bottom is getting close. the number one crypto will never go up again because of... ...other cryptos?  what you are forgetting is that every new alt coin is not only competing with bitcoin, but also with every other alt at the same time.

I agree with you, the more altcoins we have on the market the more money is removed from the bitcoin pot which results in reduced share capital of bitcoin in the crypto market, but if this remains the way they are btc could become more stable and the current dip in prices could be blamed on high transaction fees which has seen btc been dropped as a payment method by big companies hope things change soon.

That may be for the time being, i am sure that one bitcoin will take a step and when its price will start increasing, people will surely reinvest their money in bitcoin. they are just waiting for the better time and i am sure that bitcoin has the ability to recover its potion and very soon we will see another all time high price of bitcoin in the market.

[vegita1233]

Bitcoin is not a currency, but a greater-fool speculative token, that is, something that you buy at price X (you fool!) with as a goal to sell it for something like 20 X to a greater fool.  It was designed that way, even though people called it a "currency".  Like with socialism, greater fool games stop when you run out of greater fools.

But greater fools come in armies.  A small set of geeks got in in 2011, financing the gains of the very very small fools that had been heating their computers in 2010.  Then it crashed a factor of 10.  In 2013, a much bigger army of greater fools financed the gains of the hodlers of 2011 and 2012.  Then it crashed a factor of 6.  And last year, the "Koreans and Japanese" financed the gains of the hodlers of 2013-2016.  How low will it crash ?  A factor of 5 ?  A factor of 10 ?   We'll see.
The question is: is there, in this world, still a bigger army of greater fools ?  There's still the whole speculative finance market to take, but beware, these are professionals!   Bitcoin has only reached a fraction of the world population.  There's maybe still room for a last big final army of greater fools, but it will take some years.

As to "bitcoin is not the absolute monopoly", this is true, but the market is REMARKABLY synchronized.  It is as if the whole of crypto was essentially a single token.  Bitcoin has remained around 33-35% of market cap during all this falling of 60% or more, give or take a few percent.  So there seems to be one single "crypto" thing out there for greater fools.

We will see.  I table on at least 3-4 years of bear market.  It might be the final one.   But I table on a very, very big bang in something like 2021 or so.
If we go below the previous ATH, that is, $1200, I think it is done.  If we remain above it by a factor of 2, I guess we're in for a long, cold winter, and in a few years, another mega bubble.  Probably the last one.  There won't be greater fools left after they've paid for the whole shebang.

I don't have anything insightful to contribute but I believe this to be the most accurate assessment of bitcoin price action.  You've got my one and only merit that I have to give.

[TERA2]

There are 4 possibilities here:

1. This is a 2013-like interim correction that is already or almost done and will reach a new ATH within 6 months.

2. This is a 2014-like bear market that bottoms out around 3K and doesnt set a new ATH for 3 years.

3. This is the end of a 9-year 3-bubble elliot wave and a super bear market is coming where it crashes to 3K, then recovers to 8K, then crashes again to triple digits. A new ATH isnt seen for over a decade.

4. This is the end of bitcoin. No ATH ever again. The new fashion is to count ATLs since 2018.

How bearish are you? Carebear, picnic bear, grizzly bear, or Karhu?

[alyssa85]

As to "bitcoin is not the absolute monopoly", this is true, but the market is REMARKABLY synchronized.  It is as if the whole of crypto was essentially a single token.  Bitcoin has remained around 33-35% of market cap during all this falling of 60% or more, give or take a few percent.  So there seems to be one single "crypto" thing out there for greater fools.

Some coins hardly budged when Bitcoin dropped - Monero for example. Presumably because the people who were buying it were buying to spend in the dark markets.

[Biodom]

There are 4 possibilities here:

1. This is a 2013-like interim correction that is already or almost done and will reach a new ATH within 6 months.

2. This is a 2014-like bear market that bottoms out around 3K and doesnt set a new ATH for 3 years.

3. This is the end of a 9-year 3-bubble elliot wave and a super bear market is coming where it crashes to 3K, then recovers to 8K, then crashes again to triple digits. A new ATH isnt seen for over a decade.

4. This is the end of bitcoin. No ATH ever again. The new fashion is to count ATLs since 2018.

How bearish are you? Carebear, picnic bear, grizzly bear, or Karhu?

I am #5, a.k.a not bearish, but #1 would be too neat.
I can never trade bitcoin up and down though, too much pressure.

[ask]

As gold prices are at top its better to hodl your coins. Its over for bears and lets take the control with bulls.
Time to buy and hodl for me.

[aso118]

I seem to recall the exact same thing being said after the 2013 jump to $1200.

Not many have the will power to wait 4 years for their Bitcoin investments to break even again. It is way too early to say if we will have a long Bitcoin winter. I am bullish in the long term too.