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Author Topic: Now it's when people start calling overly pessimistic bottoms  (Read 318 times)
cellard
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February 01, 2018, 06:22:43 PM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (1)
 #1

Very common in speculative volatile markets like crypto, is to see how people become overly pessimistic once certain resistances are broken.

We have broken the January 17th bottom of low $9000, so people expect further crashing due the double bottom+recovery scenario being ruled out... now this is when people start calling wild lower bottoms, and now it's also when Bitcoin crushes the overly pessimistic shorts by deciding to start crawling back up at least expect price.

If you have held this long all the way down $20,000, just keep holding. For anyone that held from $1200 to $150 in the MtGox crash the current crash is another day in the office. So don't make the mistake of being overly pessimistic or you'll end up selling at the bottom. It's the same as being overly optimistic and buying at the peak. Keep a hold head and a strong hand, the fundamentals are good. Lightning is here. I claim we'll see Steam accepting Bitcoin payments again through LN and this will mark the start of mainstream LN adoption. Give it a few months and buy while the noobs start thinking once again that Bitcoin is dead.
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February 01, 2018, 06:38:30 PM
Merited by alyssa85 (1)
 #2

This is horrible advice. What logic suggests that bitcoin will ever set a new all time high again? Why do you think it's not a problem that bitcoin is not scalable and therefore can never become a universal currency? Why is it not a problem that transaction fees are absurdly high and take a long time? What about the fact that governments are cracking down and companies are banning crypto-related services and ads?

And most of all, what about the fact that there is now much greater competition among alt coins than there ever was in the past, making the crypto space infinitely inflationary? Why are none of these things an issue? Any one of these is enough reason for bitcoin to never reach its previous highs again. Honestly this decline is more than warranted. It should continue for quite a while and I don't see any reason to think it will ever recover. This is very different from in the past for all of the reasons I mentioned above.

For the record, I owned bitcoin for years and sold my last remaining btc at $17,700.

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February 01, 2018, 06:39:47 PM
 #3

Not only lightning, theres also MAST, smart contracts for bitcoin:

https://www.coindesk.com/inside-mast-little-known-plan-advance-bitcoin-smart-contracts/

I'm going to bleed as bitcoin touches 5k, but I'm not all-in, so no need to sell.

The problem with most people is that they put all their eggs in a single basket. They go full into crypto and dont inform themselves about the risks. Thats why we have those crashes.

On a sidenote, my QT wallet got better after I put the blockchain in my SSD. Now it is synching fast and no more sluggishness.
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February 01, 2018, 07:06:46 PM
Merited by richardsNY (1)
 #4

From now until the next all time high we're gonna be swamped with geniuses in retrospect.

What I find tiresome is the endless search for definitive moments.

Every reversal is more than likely not IT, just as every fall is not the death spiral the noob account assholes shout about.

Most of the time the next move is not epic. It'll be forgotten in a few hours.

Let it play out and go do something more productive.
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February 01, 2018, 07:21:30 PM
Merited by fabiorem (1)
 #5

This is horrible advice. What logic suggests that bitcoin will ever set a new all time high again? Why do you think it's not a problem that bitcoin is not scalable and therefore can never become a universal currency? Why is it not a problem that transaction fees are absurdly high and take a long time? What about the fact that governments are cracking down and companies are banning crypto-related services and ads?

And most of all, what about the fact that there is now much greater competition among alt coins than there ever was in the past, making the crypto space infinitely inflationary? Why are none of these things an issue? Any one of these is enough reason for bitcoin to never reach its previous highs again. Honestly this decline is more than warranted. It should continue for quite a while and I don't see any reason to think it will ever recover. This is very different from in the past for all of the reasons I mentioned above.

For the record, I owned bitcoin for years and sold my last remaining btc at $17,700.


The scaling problems are being addressed with new research on signature formats and second layer solutions, not to mention that for BTC to reach $100,000+ it would only require a small % of capital allocated in gold to get into bitcoin, so solely as a store of value, ignoring the fee problems, BTC has a potential of 6 figures.

Anyone that got into Bitcoin thinking that governments wouldn't attack it is delusional, crypto-related services and ICO scams being advertised are irrelevant for Bitcoin's rise.

Altcoins do not inflate Bitcoin, Bitcoin still has a 21 million coin limit supply.

Bitcoin will reach a new all time high, either as an underground stoppable store of value alone keeping people's wealth safe from corrupt governments, or as a successful currency via second layers as well.

We will revisit your post once we reach ATH.
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February 01, 2018, 07:29:12 PM
 #6

Let it play out and go do something more productive.

Can't agree more. It's quite entertaining actually to see the market panic and people go full nuts on social media, and even on this forum. Main point of importance is that while people believed the $10k level to be an important support level, it was far from that in reality since it has been broken 3 times already. That's basically a perfect indication that suport levels of the past aren't really any different from regular levels right now. I haven't bought yet since I prefer to keep waiting, but will definitely pull the trigger once the market happens to tank deeper. In the meanwhile people should focus on other things as you also pointed out -- holders don't lose anything as long as they aren't selling, and traders have the time of their life now.
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February 01, 2018, 07:51:36 PM
 #7

I think it's pretty much equal both ways, with some majority creeping in as the market swings in favour of agreeing view. This is how it works in what we already know is an extremely volatile market. I must admit I felt a little gulp logging in today to see the prices, I felt Bitcoin seemed to be quite comfortable swimming around the 10k level.

Holding bravely right now is probably what holders are thinking now. I'm still rather unperturbed, happy to be earning a little bit extra during this dip.

From now until the next all time high we're gonna be swamped with geniuses in retrospect.

What I find tiresome is the endless search for definitive moments.

Perhaps we can forgive it, if we assume that the majority of posters are in fact still finding the experience new. But I agree that this endless postulating by accounts that eventually get abandoned, only to resurface months later with some victory parade celebrating their preordained moments.

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February 01, 2018, 08:19:24 PM
 #8

I predict Altcoin slaughterhouse the next few weeks/months and BTC bottom between 3-4 k, at which point I shall buy.

Next growth cycle will start with LN, my Palantir says this summer.
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February 01, 2018, 08:55:59 PM
 #9

I predict Altcoin slaughterhouse the next few weeks/months and BTC bottom between 3-4 k, at which point I shall buy.

Next growth cycle will start with LN, my Palantir says this summer.
If that's really your target, then you'll need a whole lot of patience, because nothing justifies the price to fall down that much. Current levels are quite a good buy, and if you choose to wait, then you'll miss out.

I honestly don't see the market shoot up significantly, but anything above the $10,000 mark seems to be perfectly acceptable for me. But I do agree on LN to be the next bull run initiator.

People should understand that red market days are perfect moments to open positions, and this seems to be the case as well. Anyone not buying at current levels is just wasting a precious opportunity.

 
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February 01, 2018, 09:20:16 PM
 #10

This correction was utterly needed and is good and healthy. It has to last a few more weeks/months till all the "get rich quick" kiddies left the boat.
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February 02, 2018, 01:34:50 AM
 #11

Very common in speculative volatile markets like crypto, is to see how people become overly pessimistic once certain resistances are broken.

We have broken the January 17th bottom of low $9000, so people expect further crashing due the double bottom+recovery scenario being ruled out... now this is when people start calling wild lower bottoms, and now it's also when Bitcoin crushes the overly pessimistic shorts by deciding to start crawling back up at least expect price.

If you have held this long all the way down $20,000, just keep holding. For anyone that held from $1200 to $150 in the MtGox crash the current crash is another day in the office. So don't make the mistake of being overly pessimistic or you'll end up selling at the bottom. It's the same as being overly optimistic and buying at the peak. Keep a hold head and a strong hand, the fundamentals are good. Lightning is here. I claim we'll see Steam accepting Bitcoin payments again through LN and this will mark the start of mainstream LN adoption. Give it a few months and buy while the noobs start thinking once again that Bitcoin is dead.
You are right but there are many investors that are influenced by the market, if you made a question about the future price of bitcoin in December then you could have gotten answers like 40k or 50k but now that the price has gone down for some time people are very pessimistic, however bitcoin is still strong, there is nothing wrong with the network, the reason the price is going down is mostly due to politics and not any technical aspect of bitcoin, so holding is still the best strategy to make money.
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February 02, 2018, 05:08:17 AM
 #12

in my experience of past 4 years the "pessimistic bottom callers" are bulls who want to buy at a little lower price to make profit from the rise. almost everyone of these bullshitters who has said for example "price will fall to $6000" had their buy orders placed at $9999 and wanted to make profit from the rise back to $11k-14k. those "pessimistic bottom callers" are now fucked Cheesy which is why we don't see any of them making any noise right now.

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February 02, 2018, 07:23:39 AM
 #13

I predict Altcoin slaughterhouse the next few weeks/months and BTC bottom between 3-4 k, at which point I shall buy.

Next growth cycle will start with LN, my Palantir says this summer.

I doubt the fall will be so dramatic, but I agree with you on the other point. I also think that the greatest growth will be observed in Summer.
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February 02, 2018, 09:36:56 AM
Merited by jadenunderhill (1)
 #14

Very common in speculative volatile markets like crypto, is to see how people become overly pessimistic once certain resistances are broken.

We have broken the January 17th bottom of low $9000, so people expect further crashing due the double bottom+recovery scenario being ruled out... now this is when people start calling wild lower bottoms, and now it's also when Bitcoin crushes the overly pessimistic shorts by deciding to start crawling back up at least expect price.

If you have held this long all the way down $20,000, just keep holding. For anyone that held from $1200 to $150 in the MtGox crash the current crash is another day in the office. So don't make the mistake of being overly pessimistic or you'll end up selling at the bottom. It's the same as being overly optimistic and buying at the peak. Keep a hold head and a strong hand, the fundamentals are good. Lightning is here. I claim we'll see Steam accepting Bitcoin payments again through LN and this will mark the start of mainstream LN adoption. Give it a few months and buy while the noobs start thinking once again that Bitcoin is dead.

Agreed. This is the stage where it's full panic mode, especially the newbies. People will set random arbitrary numbers as the bottom bitcoin will experience, and most of the time it's going to be absolutely absurd and won't happen, ever.

For instance, I saw an article today with 2 guys claiming BTC is going to drop to $20... Crazy.

Others have some more logical predictions such as $4-5k, as a bottom. But I think that we're going to hang around $8k-12k for a while still. Don't forget the fact that just a month ago we were around $17k in price. We could easily go back up there, of course with the current scenario people won't think of that, though.

 
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February 02, 2018, 12:07:04 PM
 #15

What esle do you expect from people who are only concerned about the price of bitcoin as their sole motive for being involved in it and related activities. I have even seen a thread that is rooting for bitcoin heading to $1000, some saying bitcoin end is near and a host of other pessimistic moves but for the strong ones, they are staying strong in the face it seeming impossible there is possibiktu.
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February 02, 2018, 12:36:57 PM
 #16

Very common in speculative volatile markets like crypto, is to see how people become overly pessimistic once certain resistances are broken.

We have broken the January 17th bottom of low $9000, so people expect further crashing due the double bottom+recovery scenario being ruled out... now this is when people start calling wild lower bottoms, and now it's also when Bitcoin crushes the overly pessimistic shorts by deciding to start crawling back up at least expect price.

If you have held this long all the way down $20,000, just keep holding. For anyone that held from $1200 to $150 in the MtGox crash the current crash is another day in the office. So don't make the mistake of being overly pessimistic or you'll end up selling at the bottom. It's the same as being overly optimistic and buying at the peak. Keep a hold head and a strong hand, the fundamentals are good. Lightning is here. I claim we'll see Steam accepting Bitcoin payments again through LN and this will mark the start of mainstream LN adoption. Give it a few months and buy while the noobs start thinking once again that Bitcoin is dead.

Well finally a positive thing to ponder on. You shot it right in the forehead dude. Everyone seems to be stressed out by how btc is moving and doomsday peeps are shouting bubble, crash and other scary stuff. Funny how people waited for the right time to enter and then panic when its here lol

 
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February 02, 2018, 04:00:31 PM
Last edit: February 02, 2018, 04:14:40 PM by cellard
 #17

in my experience of past 4 years the "pessimistic bottom callers" are bulls who want to buy at a little lower price to make profit from the rise. almost everyone of these bullshitters who has said for example "price will fall to $6000" had their buy orders placed at $9999 and wanted to make profit from the rise back to $11k-14k. those "pessimistic bottom callers" are now fucked Cheesy which is why we don't see any of them making any noise right now.

Yes, typically people that call bottoms have their orders set higher than what they are calling.

We now saw the "bottom is $7500" prediction come true, but of course, it didn't go as low as $7500, it went at $7650 Bitstamp, and $7960 Bitfinex. Notice how it QUICKLY pumped the closer we went to $7500, since the closer we got, the higher chances of missing buying that ideal entry point.

Now FOMO is going to kick in and we are going to be at $10k within hours. $7500 was a way stronger support than $10k. So out of any unlucky news with further FOMOing, we are going higher from now on. We need to break $10k once again and sustain it for a while to regain confidence

If $7500 falls it's going to be a big fail for a lot of reputed traders like Vays. Im going to give them a chance and I personally always bet at $7500 as the strongest recovery point and so far the market has panicked upwards.
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February 02, 2018, 04:15:11 PM
 #18

Very common in speculative volatile markets like crypto, is to see how people become overly pessimistic once certain resistances are broken.

We have broken the January 17th bottom of low $9000, so people expect further crashing due the double bottom+recovery scenario being ruled out... now this is when people start calling wild lower bottoms, and now it's also when Bitcoin crushes the overly pessimistic shorts by deciding to start crawling back up at least expect price.

If you have held this long all the way down $20,000, just keep holding. For anyone that held from $1200 to $150 in the MtGox crash the current crash is another day in the office. So don't make the mistake of being overly pessimistic or you'll end up selling at the bottom. It's the same as being overly optimistic and buying at the peak. Keep a hold head and a strong hand, the fundamentals are good. Lightning is here. I claim we'll see Steam accepting Bitcoin payments again through LN and this will mark the start of mainstream LN adoption. Give it a few months and buy while the noobs start thinking once again that Bitcoin is dead.

Loosing ~+50% of bitcoin price value (same goes for alts) over few months is kinda shocking every new participants in the crypto-world.
I am a little bit worried about this crash but will not sell a cent.
HODLing forevah!

 
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cellard
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February 03, 2018, 03:38:17 PM
 #19

This is looking great. Looks like the classic recovery pattern, bounced right at the 200 day moving average and it's looking healthy. Im looking forward to see a battle for the $10k+ again. These type of corrections are very healthy, because when we go further, we will not be paranoid about never having re-touched former support lines, in this case we confirmed the long term line that touched $7500 which coincided with the 200 day moving average, which is why im very bullish now (and will be even more once we can stay above $10k for a while), coupled with the good fundamentals: lightning network has now more than 400 nodes on mainnet, and 1000+ channels:

https://lnmainnet.gaben.win/

Things are moving in a positive direction, don't get confused by the FUDed price.
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February 03, 2018, 04:09:22 PM
Merited by ktabb (1)
 #20

This is horrible advice. What logic suggests that bitcoin will ever set a new all time high again? Why do you think it's not a problem that bitcoin is not scalable and therefore can never become a universal currency? Why is it not a problem that transaction fees are absurdly high and take a long time? What about the fact that governments are cracking down and companies are banning crypto-related services and ads?

And most of all, what about the fact that there is now much greater competition among alt coins than there ever was in the past, making the crypto space infinitely inflationary? Why are none of these things an issue? Any one of these is enough reason for bitcoin to never reach its previous highs again. Honestly this decline is more than warranted. It should continue for quite a while and I don't see any reason to think it will ever recover. This is very different from in the past for all of the reasons I mentioned above.

For the record, I owned bitcoin for years and sold my last remaining btc at $17,700.

Agree.

First of all bitcoin simply can't replicate the 9000% gains it's had in the past. It would require billions entering bitcoin to achieve that.

Secondly, it's a red flag that merchants are dumping bitcoin, but enabling alts. It means that the network effect is switching from bitcoin towards alts.

 
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