Where are all the bearish people?

[Ruuvari]

I'm kind of puzzled here as vast majority of topics and their replies here is about holding btc no matter what happens. We are well into the bear market but still speculation haven't changed at all from the bullish sentiment. Clearly this forum does not contain complete crosscut of bitcoin investors/traders as opinions are so optimistic and hardly anybody implies that they might be selling and trying to buy them back closer to the bottom where ever that is. I just wonder what it takes to change sentiment here to correspond better with the market's sentiment?

What I have seen in dotcom bubble and 2008 sub prime crisis is that the sentiment starts to change no sooner than we go to a full despair and nobody anymore believes in the markets and hardly any positive sayings are heard from people. Usually pessimistic argumentation kicks in quite fast once the bullish sentiment turns into a bearish one. More optimistic argumentation starts to show up again after some lag once reversal happens.

Where are all the people here who clearly bet or have been betting for bearish movement? Clearly there is more pressure to sell off than buy more as price is declining week after week. If people would follow prevalent consensus here there should be strong demand for the btc as now is the time to buy more or jump in if you missed the first huge pump.

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[imapessimist]

I am puzzled to.  Because the price is crashing and still people are saying hold hold and buy more.  I think I will try another coin where the price is a lot cheaper and then you can get more coins for your money. 

[shield132]

I think people here are very optimistic. Also why do we need so high price?I think there is no need of this, it caused many problems too like paying high fees and etc. Also if you look, there was a lot of bad news which didn't beat bitcoin's price. If it falls now, I think this will be great, at least we will have a knowledge and experience of what happens on very high price and we all know: Bitcoin can recover to it's all times high price.

[Apekool]

I bought ETH. Probably a very foolish thing to do now. And if it declines much further I'll either wait till everyone that's afraid has fled and then buy, or buy a small portion after each significant step downward.

And if everything disappears overnight, so be it.

[Apekool]

I am puzzled to.  Because the price is crashing and still people are saying hold hold and buy more.  I think I will try another coin where the price is a lot cheaper and then you can get more coins for your money. 

Don't forget that many people who talk about crypto have certain coins in their possession as well. Their intention might not be the enlighten you with valuable knowledge, and even if it is, they might just be wrong.

[Apekool]

People are buying into USDT for some reason.

[glub0x]

I'm kind of puzzled here as vast majority of topics and their replies here is about holding btc no matter what happens. We are well into the bear market but still speculation haven't changed at all from the bullish sentiment. Clearly this forum does not contain complete crosscut of bitcoin investors/traders as opinions are so optimistic and hardly anybody implies that they might be selling and trying to buy them back closer to the bottom where ever that is. I just wonder what it takes to change sentiment here to correspond better with the market's sentiment?

What I have seen in dotcom bubble and 2008 sub prime crisis is that the sentiment starts to change no sooner than we go to a full despair and nobody anymore believes in the markets and hardly any positive sayings are heard from people. Usually pessimistic argumentation kicks in quite fast once the bullish sentiment turns into a bearish one. More optimistic argumentation starts to show up again after some lag once reversal happens.

Where are all the people here who clearly bet or have been betting for bearish movement? Clearly there is more pressure to sell off than buy more as price is declining week after week. If people would follow prevalent consensus here there should be strong demand for the btc as now is the time to buy more or jump in if you missed the first huge pump.

exactly this.
I think there is no "bear puppet" account this time.
worst, as you said, i didnt feel like the sentiment here has changed. It puzzle me because this is not something i am used to and i do not like surprises

[gentlemand]

There are many users who've been here for a long, long time and they've seen this before and worse. They know the drill now.

They've also been subject to so many 0 post moronic bearshit statements that it doesn't really register any more. That's not calling out OP.

If you'd arrived in late 2013 you would've had to wait over 3 years to break even again. If you're still here then it's safe to say you're not going to be riled by this. Perhaps that's rubbing off on the the general population too.

[longyenthanh]

I am puzzled to.  Because the price is crashing and still people are saying hold hold and buy more.  I think I will try another coin where the price is a lot cheaper and then you can get more coins for your money.  

Those who write hold, hold and buy are those who are interested in Bitcoin and invest in it for more than a year. Such situations with the price of Bitcoin as the present have already happened several times. And they will be repeated again and again. I also strongly recommend NOT selling at a loss

[Enjel]

It's because the people who held in 2013-2014 are now all rich and can retire, while those who sold are poor and sold at a loss. Very simple.

[timerland]

I'm kind of puzzled here as vast majority of topics and their replies here is about holding btc no matter what happens. We are well into the bear market but still speculation haven't changed at all from the bullish sentiment. Clearly this forum does not contain complete crosscut of bitcoin investors/traders as opinions are so optimistic and hardly anybody implies that they might be selling and trying to buy them back closer to the bottom where ever that is. I just wonder what it takes to change sentiment here to correspond better with the market's sentiment?

What I have seen in dotcom bubble and 2008 sub prime crisis is that the sentiment starts to change no sooner than we go to a full despair and nobody anymore believes in the markets and hardly any positive sayings are heard from people. Usually pessimistic argumentation kicks in quite fast once the bullish sentiment turns into a bearish one. More optimistic argumentation starts to show up again after some lag once reversal happens.

Where are all the people here who clearly bet or have been betting for bearish movement? Clearly there is more pressure to sell off than buy more as price is declining week after week. If people would follow prevalent consensus here there should be strong demand for the btc as now is the time to buy more or jump in if you missed the first huge pump.

Because if you have been into crypto for long enough, you will see that right now the price is oversold and once all this FUD clears up, the market will at least make one last push, even if it's all downhill from there. The forum is full of people who has that experience in trading cryptos.

There are bears. And they do post. I'm sure if you looked at the first page of speculation you'll find at least  one bear with his opinion. But of course the vast majority are bitcoin bulls. And it's for good reason, it's the bitcoin forum, and people here are naturally bullish about bitcoin, and it's because they know what it can bring in the long run.

Hopefully you make your own informed decision though, and not just relying off others opinions.

[ask]

I bought ETH. Probably a very foolish thing to do now. And if it declines much further I'll either wait till everyone that's afraid has fled and then buy, or buy a small portion after each significant step downward.

And if everything disappears overnight, so be it.

you made the best thing dude. don't worry. Ethereum is going to hit 0.4 btc soon. Check the charts and chart will never lie.
just hodl your eth for months and win big!

[lablab03]

Those who write hold, hold and buy are those who are interested in Bitcoin and invest in it for more than a year. Such situations with the price of Bitcoin as the present have already happened several times. And they will be repeated again and again. I also strongly recommend NOT selling at a loss

maybe the reason why some of the holders here in forum always saying hold or sell then buy back because of their beliefs.  Which is when the valued drop there will be long jump after.  But since the valued start decreasing gradually, until now the price didn't pump and it's always dumping. Perhaps no need to blame others because also bitcoin is a very promising currency. 

[Ruuvari]

I'll have to take little bit back my statement. I wrote this without looking the writings for few days. It seems now that we broke 10k there has been more people talking about bearish sentiment..

To people to better understand where I'm at I could tell you that I'm holding btc from the days when it was around 10$ a piece. I bought few of them to try out couple of transactions. They have been long forgotten but they caught my attention again after summer 2017. So basically I have been long time holder but not by a desicion. There is only gains for me at this point but still I feel I'm loosing money here just by holding. I started to prepare for cashout when price was already over 15k. But for some reason I slipped over the zenith and I'm still holding them. First I thought that consensus seems so positive that bullish momentum will continue after few weeks.

Now I kind of a feel like a deer in a headlights. I should make up my mind to do something. wheather it is doing nothing, that is holding, or selling everything off and come back later. I'm quite skeptical about technical analysis and market timing. Usually I have bad luck with these. If I now do the move and sell them off I'm sure that trend will reverse instantly. One thing that I could do would be protecting my stand with futures. If trend changes those same futures will take off any gains from increasing price. Buying such futures to protect my price point would be so strong statement from me to be bearish that why not sell all bitcoins and buy only the futures to get big gains from the drop.

Although I said that I'm not big believer in TA still I think that people never change. Ultimately markets are all about people and psychology. I think that some patterns are repeated all over again because people tend to behave in a same way time after time. I remember one youtube video (sorry don't remember channel and video name) which showed TA from first +1k spike which occured late 2013 to begin of 2014 and compared that to the current situation. they seem to be quite similar in nature. Even the dotcom bubble went in similar fashion. So if we try to bracket where we are going by looking the past (which is not usually advisable). We could say that 2013/2014 spike topped at 1200$ and declined to about 200$ over the next year before starting to rise again. that is about 83% drop. From 20k it would make somewhere around 3k before it should start rising again.. If looking at the dotcom bubble NASDAQ 100 it took 2 years before we saw reversal. High was 4691 and went to 815 before reversal that is almost 80%..

[jubalix]

it s no surprise

when it goes up hodl, when it goes down hodl

also the sellers have been killed of in 2011 and 2013, and will again be killed of in 2018.

Each time it gets harder to kill them because you are selecting people out each time who will hodl

[jubalix]

I'll have to take little bit back my statement. I wrote this without looking the writings for few days. It seems now that we broke 10k there has been more people talking about bearish sentiment..

To people to better understand where I'm at I could tell you that I'm holding btc from the days when it was around 10$ a piece. I bought few of them to try out couple of transactions. They have been long forgotten but they caught my attention again after summer 2017. So basically I have been long time holder but not by a desicion. There is only gains for me at this point but still I feel I'm loosing money here just by holding. I started to prepare for cashout when price was already over 15k. But for some reason I slipped over the zenith and I'm still holding them. First I thought that consensus seems so positive that bullish momentum will continue after few weeks.

Now I kind of a feel like a deer in a headlights. I should make up my mind to do something. wheather it is doing nothing, that is holding, or selling everything off and come back later. I'm quite skeptical about technical analysis and market timing. Usually I have bad luck with these. If I now do the move and sell them off I'm sure that trend will reverse instantly. One thing that I could do would be protecting my stand with futures. If trend changes those same futures will take off any gains from increasing price. Buying such futures to protect my price point would be so strong statement from me to be bearish that why not sell all bitcoins and buy only the futures to get big gains from the drop.

Although I said that I'm not big believer in TA still I think that people never change. Ultimately markets are all about people and psychology. I think that some patterns are repeated all over again because people tend to behave in a same way time after time. I remember one youtube video (sorry don't remember channel and video name) which showed TA from first +1k spike which occured late 2013 to begin of 2014 and compared that to the current situation. they seem to be quite similar in nature. Even the dotcom bubble went in similar fashion. So if we try to bracket where we are going by looking the past (which is not usually advisable). We could say that 2013/2014 spike topped at 1200$ and declined to about 200$ over the next year before starting to rise again. that is about 83% drop. From 20k it would make somewhere around 3k before it should start rising again.. If looking at the dotcom bubble NASDAQ 100 it took 2 years before we saw reversal. High was 4691 and went to 815 before reversal that is almost 80%..

The markets are not about people and psychology, they are about competing of entropic systems, the least entropic system wins out to the extent of the difference of the entropy.

[Ruuvari]

The markets are not about people and psychology, they are about competing of entropic systems, the least entropic system wins out to the extent of the difference of the entropy.

This sounds interesting. Can you open up this little bit more? I made quick search about entropy in the financial context but didn't find anything that relates to concept you presented. I only find some references to the entropy in the financial system as a measure of volatility, uncertainty and other factors relating to randomness. This is kind of inline with the normal interpretation of entropy which is postulated in the physics theories.

I didn't quite grasp what are you refering with these competing entropic systems and how state of their randomness affect the agreed price?

Are you saying that there is no room for any kind of human behaviour while asking and bidding forces agree upon current price?

[Wilhelm]

Where's faiiiiilllliing in these desperate times

[sjefdeklerk]

I'm here ! Bearish for a long time, starting shorting around 17.000. BTC failed as payment system, governments cracking down, Lightning network a horrible idea, possible bitfinex/tether fraud, market places hacks. I'm really not sure what positive there is ? This thing is going to 0. It's sure as hell never going to be what most imagine here (a banking replacement).

Keep short until it's 0. SODL !!

[nokati]

I'm here ! Bearish for a long time, starting shorting around 17.000. BTC failed as payment system, governments cracking down, Lightning network a horrible idea, possible bitfinex/tether fraud, market places hacks. I'm really not sure what positive there is ? This thing is going to 0. It's sure as hell never going to be what most imagine here (a banking replacement).

Keep short until it's 0. SODL !!

I wish I could get 1 satoshi for every time someone calls bitcoin is death