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多空真实对抗,短线或有反弹
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Topic: 多空真实对抗,短线或有反弹 (Read 106 times)
saitou1696
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多空真实对抗,短线或有反弹
February 03, 2018, 01:57:29 AM
#1
这样的行情对于每天码文的人来说都是一次挑战,因为要看盘,实际上行情发展到这个境地趋势已经无法阻止,恐慌盘昨天再次被杀出来了,比特币因此来到了本轮大跌的新低点位置,距离8000已经不远,统观1月中旬的下跌量能,市场应该有可能在8000位置获得一定支撑并反弹,但是趋势还是弱,没有利好,短期这个市场进入了一个自相残杀的死胡同,交易所推波助澜,市场的崩溃让人感到悲观。
今天和圈内朋友一起聊天关于2018年的展望,大家的共识之处在于不能再用老眼光去看待币圈市场的发展,老眼光指的是什么,总是把本轮行情与94对比,12月22日行情对比。我们应该看到的是每一波行情的纵深发展都离不开全球资金的推动,从中国到日本到韩国,这场全球接力游戏现在到了关键的节奏之上,除了东亚之外,大规模接盘的队伍还没找到,而从韩国开始的政策压力开始,这个市场没有了新增资金的支援,国内政策的收紧强化了资金的逃离想法,虽然你不动如山,但是全球的资金并不以为然,市场的关注兴趣也在锐减,场外正等着新一轮底部和消息面的尘埃落定,这二者实际是相关的。普涨的行情在2018可能出现的几率不大,更多的是优质项目脱颖而出,吸引市场资金的参与,毕竟是存量博弈,所以结构性的行情是必然的,资金选择安全优质的项目更好获得回报。因此对于2018年的看法是“监管下的结构行情”。
毫无疑问,区块链正吸引着全世界的关注,也意味着更多的项目正加速进入这个圈子之中,这从以太坊最近的走势就看得出来,虽然国内的项目被遏制,但国外依然如火如荼,而传统VC的进场带来了更多的项目,这一切都要建立在底层公链之上。目前底层技术依然有待完善,从区块链的商业方向来看,这依然是一块最大的风口,随着应用类项目的增多,底层技术愈加凸显价值,也因此比特币所占的市值比重将下滑。有人说2018年,以太坊将超过比特币的市值,我不做评论,但是应该看到的是如果排除监管政策本身的压制,那今年绝对应用会层出不穷,五花八门,这也凸显底层技术的意义。所以龙头还是在底层技术,我依然深信不疑。因为17年还是创业者自发组织,18年是机构孵化,这其中的规模差异还是想象的出来的。
这几天老有人在问HT,对于平台币,我觉得有意义但是要向后放,老交易所现在具备去中心化交易所没有的优势,所以死不了,但是行情本身对于平台的盈利收入影响太大,所以平台币是时好时坏的,现在不确定政策对于盘面的压抑会如何,也无法预料18年能否找到日韩这样的民众大接盘,如果行情是结构化行情,那平台币本身应该只是维稳,除非市场情绪转好,事实上我们需要正视的是这个市场暂时来说钱就那么多,为什么一级市场火热之后二级市场崩了,钱不够,或者钱根不上了。既然中日韩都尽力了,这也算是一个峰值,在市场行情减弱的情况下,只能维持适当看好的局面,相对17年而言,交易所的盈利在一段时间肯定是要下滑的,当然从长远来看,大交易所依然具备自己的优势,所以从长期而言,看好是可以的。当然市场既然有结构性的机会,那每轮行情之中不见得不会出现平台币暴涨的局面,所以拿着大交易所的平台币我觉得担心倒是不必的。
现在的行情是每天逼着你割肉,空方一刀一刀割,并且营造一种感觉就是没跌够,就是不一天放量跌到位,阴跌是最折磨人的,看不到希望,也不知道终点在哪里,但是1小时线上我们也看到明显的放量,虽然被阴线反包继续跌,也看出来了抄底资金是真的花钱在干了。现在差的是一根放量的阴线,之后才有一些放量的反弹出现,但是反弹就是反弹,反弹是要减仓的,反弹也不会一次信到位,10000美元就是顶了。
短期也到了180日均线的支撑位置,也到了日线下行趋势的轨道位置,看看吧,情况好的话,今天可能会撑住了反弹。下方还是8000大关的支撑(30周均线)。这个时候别杀自己人了。当然即使反弹也别乐观,你放心会有很多人抛售的,所以要走的人会继续走,长期的继续长期。如果想减仓抓住反弹的机会!
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多空真实对抗,短线或有反弹
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