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全球货币政策收缩 专家提醒中国需防范外溢风险
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Topic: 全球货币政策收缩 专家提醒中国需防范外溢风险 (Read 105 times)
Jacksonlei
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全球货币政策收缩 专家提醒中国需防范外溢风险
February 03, 2018, 05:50:33 AM
#1
近日,在中国国际经济交流中心举办的“2018年全球货币政策收缩的影响”讲座上,多位专家建议,在世界主要发达经济体货币政策收缩的趋势下,需要警惕其带来的外溢风险。
随着全球经济逐渐复苏,为避免货币和量化宽松政策带来的通胀压力,造成资产泡沫等,各国开始考虑货币政策正常化,以美联储为代表的全球央行开始逐步退出量化宽松。
中国国际经济交流中心副理事长魏建国认为,发达经济体货币政策转向正常化,标志着2008年以来的全球货币政策迎来拐点,整体呈现紧缩的态势,“2018年全球货币政策继续收紧,将对全球经济和金融市场带来重要的外溢性影响”。
中国国际经济交流中心副总经济师张永军表示,美国实施减税政策后,美国财政赤字规模有可能扩大,需靠发国债来弥补,但各大央行不再扩大规模甚至减少购买国债,这将导致美国国债价格下降,收益率提高。美国债券收益率的上升将带来全球利率的上升,给全球金融稳定带来挑战。同时,美国加息与减税叠加也将加剧全球资本大规模跨境流动。
中央财经大学金融学院副院长谭小芬认为,伴随全球流动性逐步收紧,部分新兴经济体或将受到较大影响。目前,新兴市场的非金融部门债务已由2007年的10万亿美元扩大到2016年的50万亿美元。高额债务需要现金流量偿还,若现金流量跟不上就会出现问题。
对于中国的影响,张永军认为影响是多方面的:一是中国已持有的境外资产会受到一定程度损失。二是由于中国工业品价格和原材料价格与国际联动密切,可能对国内价格水平和进出口产生影响。此外,还会增加中国实现跨境资本双向流动基本平衡的难度。
谭小芬认为,主要央行调整货币政策,对中国的影响在短期内是可控的,中长期的风险可能会大一些。全球经济扩张总体在接近顶峰,2018年之后全球经济下行压力可能会加大,外需不容乐观。同时,消费和投资也会受到一定程度的抑制,如果这3个因素同时出现,将会对经济产生压力。
对于如何更好地应对外溢性风险,张永军建议,首先要保持中国经济的高质量增长。其次要稳步推进金融市场的开放和资本项目可兑换,完善人民币汇率形成机制,保持合理的外汇储备,管控好汇率风险。同时,还应稳步推进人民币国际化,不断提升人民币的国际地位,加强国际金融合作,推动“一带一路”相关国家成为全球资金汇聚地。“这样整个政策的外溢效应对中国的影响就会很小,全球经济也会稳定。”张永军说。
中国银行首席研究员宗良认为,虽然全球货币政策出现紧缩,但各国对美元流动性的依赖有所减弱,资本流向也出现了分化。过去一旦美国加息或税改,联动效应会使资金一致流向美国,但是这次美联储加息后资本流向出现了变化,既流向美国,也流向欧元区和中国,“在这样的变化下,中国需要有一个良好的营商环境,以保证继续成为全球投资的热点”。
Mack1988
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Re: 全球货币政策收缩 专家提醒中国需防范外溢风险
February 03, 2018, 06:01:52 AM
#2
全球货币政策出现紧缩
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