MORE THAN 3 YEARS! peak-to-peak

[RawDog]

Last time, BTC price took more than 3 years to return to its peak.  How many years will it take, if ever, for BTC to return to $20,000?  

[skorupi17]

Consider the volume of Bitcoin users then than today. Also why did Bitcoin crashed then than today. We know that the volume of Bitcoin users now is increasing rapidly than 2013-2016. With this alone, we could conclude that it won't take more than 3 years just to reach again our ATH. I am optimistic about Bitcoin and I think that Bitcoin will reach $20,000 within this year. But if it won't, that's fine with me. I always wanted Bitcoin to increase steadily. Even if it's slow, at least it's stable.

[styca]

Last time, BTC price took more than 3 years to return to its peak.  How many years will it take, if ever, for BTC to return to $20,000?  

I think the current situation is different.
What we saw in late November/ early December was a massive influx of new people who had read all the news reports of bitcoin surging in value, and wanted in. This I believe was the main cause of the huge price rise. All big rises tend to be followed by a fall, and what happened was that as soon as the price dropped, these people had lost money and a lot of them panicked, and sold to cut their losses, which triggered further sells, and then experienced traders jumped in to short their coins, exacerbating the drop. And this was pattern was repeated in more extreme fashion in the altcoins rising almost vertically and then dropping just as quickly in Jan/early Feb. This is all due to the fact that crypto is gaining mainstream attention, which is why we also have governments jumping in to have their say every couple of days. This government/media FUD is in my opinion a symptom of the price swings, not the cause.

So I think the current situation is unprecedented - it is the first pains of interaction between crypto and the mainstream. Crypto will grow, mainstream adoption will come, but there will no doubt be more drama along the way.

Of course I may be wrong (I have limited experience and have not yet been here a year), but I believe that $20k will arrive sooner than people think. The overall trend is still upwards, and this will continue through 2018.

[o_e_l_e_o]

Last time, BTC price took more than 3 years to return to its peak.  How many years will it take, if ever, for BTC to return to $20,000?  

I think the current situation is different.
What we saw in late November/ early December was a massive influx of new people who had read all the news reports of bitcoin surging in value, and wanted in. This I believe was the main cause of the huge price rise. All big rises tend to be followed by a fall, and what happened was that as soon as the price dropped, these people had lost money and a lot of them panicked, and sold to cut their losses, which triggered further sells, and then experienced traders jumped in to short their coins, exacerbating the drop. And this was pattern was repeated in more extreme fashion in the altcoins rising almost vertically and then dropping just as quickly in Jan/early Feb. This is all due to the fact that crypto is gaining mainstream attention, which is why we also have governments jumping in to have their say every couple of days. This government/media FUD is in my opinion a symptom of the price swings, not the cause.

So I think the current situation is unprecedented - it is the first pains of interaction between crypto and the mainstream. Crypto will grow, mainstream adoption will come, but there will no doubt be more drama along the way.

Of course I may be wrong (I have limited experience and have not yet been here a year), but I believe that $20k will arrive sooner than people think. The overall trend is still upwards, and this will continue through 2018.

This is a nice summary, and I agree with what you have said, EXCEPT from $20k arriving sooner than we think.

There were times over the last few months where the mempool was so backed up, many people gave up even attempting to transfer/move their coins. Bitcoin market dominance is at an all time low of 34%. Bitcoin is slipping, and people know it. Yes, the overall trend for the market as a whole is upwards, and I'm still very bullish about crypto in general, but I'm not sure how long Bitcoin can maintain its number 1 spot. It has first mover advantage, but not much else going for it. It is used widely to trade alts, but Ethereum is rapidly taking over this market. There are other coins offering smart contracts, fee-less transaction, instant transactions, staking, ASIC-resistance, etc, etc.

With news circulating of various exchanges in the process of allowing trading directly between fiat and alts, we need lightning network to be a success, and a success SOON. I think it will be a while before we see $20k again. But that's just one guys opinion. Who knows.  

[RawDog]

I believe that $20k will arrive sooner than people think.

This is called 'wishful thinking'.  You just want this to happen.

[styca]

I believe that $20k will arrive sooner than people think.

This is called 'wishful thinking'.  You just want this to happen.

Certainly the struggle for me is always to try to split emotion from logic. This includes both hope and fear. My best prediction is that prices will continue to increase, but I'm certainly prepared to admit that my views are influenced by emotion.

As I say, I've not been here a year yet so I'm a relative newcomer- I'd be interested to hear your opinion on the main drivers of the price rise and fall, and how this may play out in future. We learn partly from our mistakes, and partly from the lessons taught by those who have experienced more.

[RawDog]

I'd be interested to hear your opinion on the main drivers of the price rise and fall, and how this may play out in future.

Pure idiocy.  That is the main driver of BTC prices.  Expect more idiocy in the future. 

[styca]

I'd be interested to hear your opinion on the main drivers of the price rise and fall, and how this may play out in future.

Pure idiocy.  That is the main driver of BTC prices.  Expect more idiocy in the future. 

I'd go along with that

[ManaMan]

More people are aware of btc day by day and awareness of crypto currency in general is raising, having this in mind I do believe we might see another 20k$ this year. You can't compare old time with this one, before you had few people involved + like one and few exchanges and lower volume. Today we have more exchanges, more people registering day by day to trade which causes some of them to limit registrations or to restrict new users until they upgrade their server. Which to me shows that there is a demand for crypto currency in general.

If bitcoin doesn't reach 20k$ again, I am sure some other alts will try to flip place with btc then as this is not some trend that will go just like that. Dumping from 20k$ till like 8k$ is nothing and this doesn't scares me at all. I would be concerned however if price dumped till 1k well then I'd be skeptic about price returning to 20k mark.

I'd be interested to hear your opinion on the main drivers of the price rise and fall, and how this may play out in future.

Pure idiocy.  That is the main driver of BTC prices.  Expect more idiocy in the future. 

Speculation and people desire to get quick over night, but they fall to see that to become a millionaire with small investment you had to hold and believe for a long time. Which is really hard thing to do.

[secondgarlic]

Last time, BTC price took more than 3 years to return to its peak.  How many years will it take, if ever, for BTC to return to $20,000?  

I think the current situation is different.
What we saw in late November/ early December was a massive influx of new people who had read all the news reports of bitcoin surging in value, and wanted in. This I believe was the main cause of the huge price rise. All big rises tend to be followed by a fall, and what happened was that as soon as the price dropped, these people had lost money and a lot of them panicked, and sold to cut their losses, which triggered further sells, and then experienced traders jumped in to short their coins, exacerbating the drop. And this was pattern was repeated in more extreme fashion in the altcoins rising almost vertically and then dropping just as quickly in Jan/early Feb. This is all due to the fact that crypto is gaining mainstream attention, which is why we also have governments jumping in to have their say every couple of days. This government/media FUD is in my opinion a symptom of the price swings, not the cause.

So I think the current situation is unprecedented - it is the first pains of interaction between crypto and the mainstream. Crypto will grow, mainstream adoption will come, but there will no doubt be more drama along the way.

Of course I may be wrong (I have limited experience and have not yet been here a year), but I believe that $20k will arrive sooner than people think. The overall trend is still upwards, and this will continue through 2018.

I agree with the main points in your write up, but what makes me wonder is the fact that the price still hasn't stabilized, although the people who had come on board towards the end of last year just because they thought bitcoin was free magic internet money have already cut their losses and dumped their bitcoins.

I understand that there is considerable FUD right now because a lot of governments are not giving a clear indication in terms of how they will approach cryptocurrencies, but I'm thinking that most of the people who jumped on the band wagon have jumped off, and their coins have been picked up by relatively experienced people (i.e. people willing to hodl) so I would have thought that the price would have started to slowly stabilize by this point.

[tegarp90]

i think it's different, it was long time ago and people was so not familiar with bitcoin and look bitcoin for nothing. But now every country in this world started to using blockchain or bitcoin system as a payments, so in my opinion it will not need 3 years to reach $20k, i'm sure this year it will back to 20k

[styca]

I would have thought that the price would have started to slowly stabilize by this point.

It might take a bit longer. I'm still expecting more fallout from the bitfinex/tether subpoena. Who knows, though? Short term is even harder to predict than long term.

[Virman01]

i do not think we take too long, even waiting for three three years. the more days the bitcoin enthusiasts get more and more for what is the long wait to get back to the high price again? thanks

[sunkat]

3 years ago noone of my friends know about bitcoin. Today some of them join crypto world with me. To return 20k I think bitcoin will reach in the first half of 2018.

[jakelyson]

I bet it will be longer. Stricter policies, regulations and some countries banning bitcoin and restricting exchanges adds up to fear to new comers but eventually will stabilize bitcoins price. If it grows, hopefully it is a stable one.

[buwaytress]

So, wishful thinking and idiocy is the realm of those who think the former peak can be reached again. Pray tell, what would be the thinking that wouldn't be considered idiotic? It's one thing to criticise an opinion, quite another not to offer an alternative of your own, but then you don't want to risk being wrong, do you?

Don't be afraid, the rest of us idiots know we'll continuously be wrong for a great many years to come. Just embrace the fact that we're speculating and only time will tell if we were right. Three years is a really short time in relative terms. I'd be very happy to wait three years to a 20k return.

[trecore4]

Last time, BTC price took more than 3 years to return to its peak.  How many years will it take, if ever, for BTC to return to $20,000?  

If that would have been easy to predict then im sure that could have been known to us by now. There might have been many speculations by this time and threads would have been already present there to answer that question. Thats because everyone is asking the same question everywhere and everyone just speculating some hoax in the air. We cant say anything about the crypto currency due to its very nature of uncertainty. The crypto suddenly took the wrong turn last month and came down without any expectation. This time it will happen the same, it could come up at anytime, tonight, next week or next month or may be after long than that. Its unpredictable.

[squallw]

Took 3 years, it was the worse possible cenario, if someone bought at ATH in 2013, that time, bitcoin and crypto had very low volume and only few people knew about cryptos.
This time, almost all the world knows about cryptos, it will recover within some few months.

[PeterPPAP]

I think not long, Bitcoin will increase to $ 20,000. Because Bitcoin has tremendous development potential and is worth the investment, not the technology behind it, or the fighting factions struggle together. We can see that Bitcoin is getting a lot of support from the loyal fans of Bitcoin.

[lillyann]

It is natural always the graph looks the same. Such a situation has already occurred several times only not on such a scale. According to forecasts, the BTC price should reach 55k $ by the end of the year.