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Author Topic: KNC miner with hosting not profitable  (Read 2822 times)
Herp
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September 04, 2013, 06:32:31 PM
 #1

I've been doing some digging looking to get into mining. KNC seemed best option in terms of power/delivery date/price. However, I've ran some numbers:

Jupiter unit(400GH/) $4,995 + 20% VAT(most European countries have similar VAT bit lower or higher even) = $5,994
+
Hosting(I've considered it because it includes PSU, you get it earlier than others, it's supervised, no risk of faulty unit, having to send it back, power costs included, high uptime % n so on)

12 Months Jupiter hosting = $ 3,960 + 20% VAT= $4,752
------------------------------------------------------
Total(Jupiter unit+ 12 month hosting)= $10,746

Ok so far so good...Now the hard math begins. Here are the variables:

12 month mining period
400Gh/s Hash power
10.746$ total investment
95% uptime(probably optimistic)
1,6853% difficulty increase/day
ETA for mining unit: 2.5 months(probably optimistic)
Exchange rate for BTC 150$
KNC Pool mining fee 1.5%
Power cost: 0 (since it's included in hosting package)
--------------------------------------------------
Results:
Initial Coins per Day: 2.16535
Initial income/day: 384,8 USD
Reduction/week: 12,41%
Break even including difficulty change: Never
Net profit/loss: -5309.7 USD

Of course Bitcoin price can get much higher but then again it may not and ETA for mining units may be delayed, the downtime can be smaller than 95% so on and so forth.

Assuming all the variables above stay the same, this setup could be profitable at a Bitcoin price of $300 starting from day one. With a $300 BTC price averaged on a 12 month period, one could earn a net profit of $126,6.

Again KNC seems one of the good deals out there. Others like BFL are even less profitable.



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September 04, 2013, 06:47:46 PM
 #2

That's why you should sign up me with me. Smiley My prices blow their pricing away & by having your ASIC miner hosted by a vetted forum member, you're also helping out a fellow Bitcoin miner that believes in and supports the BTC ecosystem.

I have vetted miners in multiple US states offering 2.5% hosting, the lowest hosting prices in the world. Thanks to this mesh network of vetted miner hosts I'm building, you can even move your unit to another host if there's an emergency. I may also be able to offer you hosting in Europe or the Middle East via one of my co-op members with similar pricing depending on his spare capacity.

No other Bitcoin miner hosting service has this level of reach and redundancy. No other hosting service has hosting fees this low (This is an introductory rate). For more details: please see post 6 of my GBEC & Miner Host Matchmaking service link, the 2nd line in my sig. Please send me a PM if you have more questions or if you're interested in this service.

Aloha!
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September 04, 2013, 09:54:04 PM
 #3

I'm confused, why would you add VAT?

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Herp
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September 04, 2013, 10:06:34 PM
 #4

I'm confused, why would you add VAT?

Because their prices don't include VAT and they also add that to final bill.


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Bitcoinorama
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September 04, 2013, 10:29:03 PM
 #5

I'm confused, why would you add VAT?

Because their prices don't include VAT and they also add that to final bill.

Sorry, let me rephrase, why would you choose to pay VAT?

Set yourself up a company, claim back VAT, claim electricity as a justifiable expense reducing your outlay there, claim associated hardware, and even rent from the room in the flat/house used to house product as a necessary part of day to day operation.

Make my day! Say thanks if you found me helpful Smiley BTC Address --->
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September 05, 2013, 12:25:57 AM
 #6

I'm a noob, so pardon my noobishness.

But even I know a Jupiter will be obsolete beyond 6 months.  In 6 months, Jupiter II's will be online, so why opt for the 12 month hosting?  Another thing to consider is that beyond October, one could expect/guesstimate anything less than ASIC machines will be switched off.  The difficulty would be too high to keep sub-ASIC machines online, and even if some stayed on, their impact would be insignificant.  Then, one could guesstimate the network hash rate by approximating the quantity and mix of ASIC units shipped after September.  KnC has order numbering to 6,500+ (mostly single machines), for example.  Guess a mix of KnC and other vendor ASIC shipments.  I'm not interested enough to do the math, but it seems it would get you to more realistic numbers.

Hosting:  I agree profits trump all, but hosting with KnC means my unit doesn't get delayed in customs and I don't pay import duty.  So if you were to consider that in a comparison of hosted v shipped, hosting still wins.  Personally, I don't think many of those having their box shipped abroad have given that enough thought.  Many (American) buyers are thinking it will leave KnC on a Monday and show up on their doorstep before the end of the week.  Good luck with that.  

To me, hosting with KnC also means I don't give a rats azz about spending MY time trying to accurately determine power consumption, tweaking, and such.  I know how much I bill my time to my customers and therefore know how much my time is really worth; so that goes into my calculation too.  I also don't have to worry about the friggin NOISE those fans will be making.  It's gonna be hoooooowling(!).  Hell, I wouldn't even want that thing in my detached garage.  Those are some intangible benefits for which I am happy to pay KnC a premium to handle for me.

My very conservative napkin math says I will get a very decent return over 6 the month period I think the box will be useful with no further effort required.  So, I'm in.  After 6 months, KnC can handle scrapping it for me.  I have no interest in actually ever seeing the thing.  Or, more likely, it could be re-purposed for some other mining task.
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September 05, 2013, 01:56:31 AM
 #7

His numbers don't really add up.

Time til mining 2.5 Months?

The rigs at the price point you mention are supposed to be here at latest in 1.5 Months, at earliest ~20Days.

Secondly that percentage of difficulty increase per day is not sustainable past about 6 months and will dramatically drop off. By my estimates even with hosting costs you'd be making about ~$300/month with a jupiter (And it should already be paid off by then)

I think the OP is saying "If you bought a rig today, the earliest it would arrive would be 2.5 months". The rigs due to arrive in 20 days were sold out weeks ago.

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September 05, 2013, 02:01:11 AM
 #8

His numbers don't really add up.

Time til mining 2.5 Months?

The rigs at the price point you mention are supposed to be here at latest in 1.5 Months, at earliest ~20Days.

Secondly that percentage of difficulty increase per day is not sustainable past about 6 months and will dramatically drop off. By my estimates even with hosting costs you'd be making about ~$300/month with a jupiter (And it should already be paid off by then)

I think the OP is saying "If you bought a rig today, the earliest it would arrive would be 2.5 months". The rigs due to arrive in 20 days were sold out weeks ago.

Plus I thought those were sold at $7000 not the current $5000 price tag?

 
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Herp
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September 05, 2013, 06:40:42 AM
 #9

His numbers don't really add up.

Time til mining 2.5 Months?

The rigs at the price point you mention are supposed to be here at latest in 1.5 Months, at earliest ~20Days.

Secondly that percentage of difficulty increase per day is not sustainable past about 6 months and will dramatically drop off. By my estimates even with hosting costs you'd be making about ~$300/month with a jupiter (And it should already be paid off by then)

I think the OP is saying "If you bought a rig today, the earliest it would arrive would be 2.5 months". The rigs due to arrive in 20 days were sold out weeks ago.

Exactly


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Herp
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September 05, 2013, 07:10:17 AM
 #10

I'm a noob, so pardon my noobishness.

But even I know a Jupiter will be obsolete beyond 6 months.  In 6 months, Jupiter II's will be online, so why opt for the 12 month hosting?  Another thing to consider is that beyond October, one could expect/guesstimate anything less than ASIC machines will be switched off.  The difficulty would be too high to keep sub-ASIC machines online, and even if some stayed on, their impact would be insignificant.  Then, one could guesstimate the network hash rate by approximating the quantity and mix of ASIC units shipped after September.  KnC has order numbering to 6,500+ (mostly single machines), for example.  Guess a mix of KnC and other vendor ASIC shipments.  I'm not interested enough to do the math, but it seems it would get you to more realistic numbers.

Hosting:  I agree profits trump all, but hosting with KnC means my unit doesn't get delayed in customs and I don't pay import duty.  So if you were to consider that in a comparison of hosted v shipped, hosting still wins. Personally, I don't think many of those having their box shipped abroad have given that enough thought.  Many (American) buyers are thinking it will leave KnC on a Monday and show up on their doorstep before the end of the week.  Good luck with that.  

To me, hosting with KnC also means I don't give a rats azz about spending MY time trying to accurately determine power consumption, tweaking, and such.  I know how much I bill my time to my customers and therefore know how much my time is really worth; so that goes into my calculation too.  I also don't have to worry about the friggin NOISE those fans will be making.  It's gonna be hoooooowling(!).  Hell, I wouldn't even want that thing in my detached garage.  Those are some intangible benefits for which I am happy to pay KnC a premium to handle for me.

My very conservative napkin math says I will get a very decent return over 6 the month period I think the box will be useful with no further effort required.  So, I'm in.  After 6 months, KnC can handle scrapping it for me.  I have no interest in actually ever seeing the thing.  Or, more likely, it could be re-purposed for some other mining task.

I agree hosting presents some cool advantages which is why I've considered it.

Care to share your math and how you arrived at those "decent" results. This is why I've posted the thread. Was expecting for people to prove me wrong and point out variables that haven't been included in this calculator. My fingers are pretty itchy waiting to hit that order button but if numbers don't add up there's that.

In my case if I opt for a 6 months hosting I still end up losing. I won't lose as much but I'd still be down around $3k. In your case(being US citizen) and don't have to pay VAT you'll only be down $1.5k but still make a pretty fat loss.

And of course all these calculations are off if KNC delays shipment. If they delay net loss would be even higher. I've also added a 95% uptime which is probably optimistic.

p.s: KNC says "Shipping begins mid Nov 2013". They don't say if all units will be shipped mid Nov. Probably a bunch of lucky ones will get them at that point and even if you opt for hosting, they might not receive all the units themselves by then but only some.


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Ytterbium
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September 05, 2013, 07:48:12 AM
 #11

I thought you could avoid VAT if you went with hosting.

Anyway, I live in AMURICA where we don't pay VAT or Customs. I also get free electricity (to a point) so I'll be able to run this thing forever until it makes me money.

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September 05, 2013, 07:52:13 AM
 #12

I thought you could avoid VAT if you went with hosting.

Anyway, I live in AMURICA where we don't pay VAT or Customs. I also get free electricity (to a point) so I'll be able to run this thing forever until it makes me money.

I hoped so too but they charge you VAT even with hosting if you reside within the EU. I believe a previous poster mentioned custom fees. You have to pay those I guess if you live in US https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Customs_duties_in_the_United_States.

EU and US are not a free trade Union yet though there are plans place.


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September 05, 2013, 08:13:03 AM
 #13

Nope.  I am an American who lives in a country where customs really sucks.

No way I would buy the 2nd wave as you are contemplating.  30-50% of your profit is made in the first two months when you're running with the bulls ahead of the network.  Everyone would have eaten your lunch by then.  That's like 3-4(?) resets after the 1st wave.  By the time it is hashing, you will simply be running with the rest of the cattle.  If you aren't in the 1st wave, you might be better off waiting for the 1st wave of Jupiter II's in March.
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September 05, 2013, 08:22:01 AM
 #14

I thought you could avoid VAT if you went with hosting.

Anyway, I live in AMURICA where we don't pay VAT or Customs. I also get free electricity (to a point) so I'll be able to run this thing forever until it makes me money.

I hoped so too but they charge you VAT even with hosting if you reside within the EU. I believe a previous poster mentioned custom fees. You have to pay those I guess if you live in US https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Customs_duties_in_the_United_States.

EU and US are not a free trade Union yet though there are plans place.

That's odd.  Maybe you can have it shipped to someone who can host it for you in the US?

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September 05, 2013, 09:19:34 AM
 #15

I thought you could avoid VAT if you went with hosting.

Anyway, I live in AMURICA where we don't pay VAT or Customs. I also get free electricity (to a point) so I'll be able to run this thing forever until it makes me money.

I hoped so too but they charge you VAT even with hosting if you reside within the EU. I believe a previous poster mentioned custom fees. You have to pay those I guess if you live in US https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Customs_duties_in_the_United_States.

EU and US are not a free trade Union yet though there are plans place.

That's odd.  Maybe you can have it shipped to someone who can host it for you in the US?

Best would be to make a deal with someone from US to buy the unit, host it in Sweden and send over the BTC payments(enter your BTC address instead of theirs for periodic payments). Of course that would require a level of trust. But even so it ain't really worth it unless BTC price really skyrockets.


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September 05, 2013, 01:45:05 PM
 #16

I thought you could avoid VAT if you went with hosting.

Anyway, I live in AMURICA where we don't pay VAT or Customs. I also get free electricity (to a point) so I'll be able to run this thing forever until it makes me money.

I hoped so too but they charge you VAT even with hosting if you reside within the EU. I believe a previous poster mentioned custom fees. You have to pay those I guess if you live in US https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Customs_duties_in_the_United_States.

EU and US are not a free trade Union yet though there are plans place.

That's odd.  Maybe you can have it shipped to someone who can host it for you in the US?

PM me, I will give you details about U.S. based hosting for your KnC Miners.   I have reached out to be one of our their U.S. hosting providers.  Cross you fingers for me.

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September 05, 2013, 02:57:38 PM
 #17

KnC miner will probably have a hard time making the money back for those that bought the housting package from KnC, the exception may be those that has there delivery the first 2-5 days or so.

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September 05, 2013, 04:43:11 PM
 #18

I thought you could avoid VAT if you went with hosting.

Anyway, I live in AMURICA where we don't pay VAT or Customs. I also get free electricity (to a point) so I'll be able to run this thing forever until it makes me money.

I hoped so too but they charge you VAT even with hosting if you reside within the EU. I believe a previous poster mentioned custom fees. You have to pay those I guess if you live in US https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Customs_duties_in_the_United_States.

EU and US are not a free trade Union yet though there are plans place.
There have been for ages, and it will never happen. There has to be customs between the Americas and EU, otherwise the drug trafficers win.

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September 05, 2013, 05:34:50 PM
 #19

I thought you could avoid VAT if you went with hosting.
If the goods (the miners) are not leaving Sweden, they have to charge VAT. Hosting is a 'service' provided and 'consumed' in Sweden, so they also have to charge VAT on that.
http://www.brighton-accountants.com/blog/vat-uk-sweden/

Next is for UK to USA, but in general valid for Sweden (it's in EU):
http://www.brighton-accountants.com/blog/vat-uk-usa/
Quote
Exporting goods to the USA

Most goods exported to the States can be zero-rated for UK VAT purposes (that is, VAT does not need to be added), as long as documentary evidence of the export is kept.
Quote
VAT on services

UK VAT may need to be charged on services performed in the USA, depending on the nature of the service supplied. This is a complex area, but broadly, assuming the supplier belongs in the UK and the customer belongs in the States, UK VAT will need to be charged on most services unless one of the following exceptions applies.
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September 05, 2013, 09:45:44 PM
 #20

For me 6 months hosting ended up being ~$300 cheaper than importing the miner with 25% import tax + PSU + electricity (though electric cost is the least of my concerns) + launch delay (at least 3 days or more) + ensuring uptime while I am not at home. After 6 months, we'll see. I may resell the miner. Or if the difficulty starts to flatten out I may either extend hosting or import it as used gear. There's also a possibility that KnC will be offering upgrades to Gen2 reusing the exising hardware.

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