[HAVELOCK] CasinoBitco.in (CBTC) IPO Official Thread

[bitrich]

too late for in?

For a long term gain absolutely..to make a profit in a week maybe....my guess is well hit .001 in a month. I would do your own research, read the prospectus, check out the site, run the #'s and weigh the risk. factor in that bitcoin gambling is set to take over most online gambling in the next year or two and I'd say we have a decent investment here. Not to mention your Btc value will increase as well.

[ranlo]

When are we getting updated financials for Sept 12th? It's already the 14th...

[Namworld]

At (approximated) 10 BTC current weekly profit divided by 30'000'000 shares, that makes 0.00000033 BTC per share. At 0.00042 current price, it would take 1,260 weeks for a 100% ROI (assuming no share price change). Assets currently typically stand at 100-200 weeks for 100% ROI or 0.5%-1% weekly.

It is indeed quite high priced currently.

Coinroll at 40 BTC per week x 1260 weeks = 50,400 BTC valuation. Perhaps someone would be interested in seeing Scrat and making him an offer?

(If price was lower, maybe 0.0001 or less, then I'd be interested.)

[Nosniw]

Well, the only legitimate gambling service providers in HK are Hong Kong Jockey Club and Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

You're getting trouble. Potential law suit or close down of website haha

[petskup]

real problem here is that when already Best Online Casino Sites just accept btc its harder to get new customers...
http://onlinecasino.net/index.php
http://www.bestbettingsites.org.uk/top-10-betting-sites/

[casinobitcoin]

Hi all,
We're going to move to bi-weekly financial updates for now, in the interest of less volatility in results/public shares.

Next update to be posted by the 17th, for the 1st-15th.

[bitrich]

too late for in?

For a long term gain absolutely..to make a profit in a week maybe....my guess is well hit .001 in a month. I would do your own research, read the prospectus, check out the site, run the #'s and weigh the risk. factor in that bitcoin gambling is set to take over most online gambling in the next year or two and I'd say we have a decent investment here. Not to mention your Btc value will increase as well.

I am bullish on CBTC but 0.001 in a month, that's $3.75 mil evaluation at $125 per btc, for a company that is probably going to do 15-20 BTC profit this week?  

That equates to 0.00000067 BTC per share for the week.

The real thing I want to see (not just at Casinobitco.in) is how btc companies as a whole, are going to maintain profits in BTC for investors because as BTC price increases in USD, then BTC wagered will decrease per Gambler (wagered in USD per gambler will stay the same, IMO).  

The way CBTC accomplishes some of this is gain more players, in sports book and casino.  Right now the market is saturated with both and the amount of BTC people is not growing at a large amount yet.  Therefore CBTC initially needs to gain in other casinos and sportsbook players.  (KOS jumps off the handle a bit but is well versed into a true gamblers thoughts of comparing books looking for the best odds, CBTC needs to become more competitive in that regard without risking to much, which I believe they will do)

But ultimately these companies offer diminishing returns in BTC if BTC continues to grow as it is supposed to do.

For example a standard bettor would bet $1 in USD (~0.01 btc right now) on a 3-4 parlay (once they get this feature up), but let's say BTC price doubles back to $250 for a coin, I would guess the bet in BTC would be halved.

Therefore CBTC is still gaining the USD wagered and percentages but not the BTC wagered like today.  Therefore meaning that share price of 0.001 (at btc of $250) would make the CBTC valuation of $7.5 mil, and still making 15-20 BTC per week. So to get back to your "suggested" 3.75 mil USD valuation it would be back to 0.0005 BTC per share.  

Some are going to get caught holding the bag on these stocks, IMO with the increase in BTC price


** this also does not take into account within a year or 2 US betting will need to be blocked, imo**

Not sure if I understand or agree. If I am holding 20 btc worth of shares, and the market price of btc doubles, I still have 20 btc worth of shares no?

If I bettor should bet 1 btc as you suggested and the market price doubles, would they not still have a 1 btc bet? I'm assuming all bets will stay btc denominated regardless of market price just like any other btc gambling site. Maybe Im just not grasping this but Im not getting why it would be tough to maintain profits with a rising btc price, in my mind I trust btc more than fiat and I keep most of my money in btc with no fear.

Also, I would think the choice to block US betters would be up to CBTC and very hard to actually enforce (TOR, proxies)

They would have to be pressured by fiat banks just like partypoker was years ago. We are using btc, its international currency. If they had to block US IP's wouldnt people just do as they have done the past couple years and just take a few extra steps to hide their location? Correct me if I'm wrong but an all btc denominated company in a gambling friendly location is fairly safe. Just like exchanges or businesses who do not deal with fiat currently can't be regulated. We only have to follow their rules when we use THEIR currency.

Am I completely wrong here? Don't take me as argumentative I am not just having a discusssion

[ranlo]

too late for in?

For a long term gain absolutely..to make a profit in a week maybe....my guess is well hit .001 in a month. I would do your own research, read the prospectus, check out the site, run the #'s and weigh the risk. factor in that bitcoin gambling is set to take over most online gambling in the next year or two and I'd say we have a decent investment here. Not to mention your Btc value will increase as well.

I am bullish on CBTC but 0.001 in a month, that's $3.75 mil evaluation at $125 per btc, for a company that is probably going to do 15-20 BTC profit this week? 

That equates to 0.00000067 BTC per share for the week.

The real thing I want to see (not just at Casinobitco.in) is how btc companies as a whole, are going to maintain profits in BTC for investors because as BTC price increases in USD, then BTC wagered will decrease per Gambler (wagered in USD per gambler will stay the same, IMO). 

The way CBTC accomplishes some of this is gain more players, in sports book and casino.  Right now the market is saturated with both and the amount of BTC people is not growing at a large amount yet.  Therefore CBTC initially needs to gain in other casinos and sportsbook players.  (KOS jumps off the handle a bit but is well versed into a true gamblers thoughts of comparing books looking for the best odds, CBTC needs to become more competitive in that regard without risking to much, which I believe they will do)

But ultimately these companies offer diminishing returns in BTC if BTC continues to grow as it is supposed to do.

For example a standard bettor would bet $1 in USD (~0.01 btc right now) on a 3-4 parlay (once they get this feature up), but let's say BTC price doubles back to $250 for a coin, I would guess the bet in BTC would be halved.

Therefore CBTC is still gaining the USD wagered and percentages but not the BTC wagered like today.  Therefore meaning that share price of 0.001 (at btc of $250) would make the CBTC valuation of $7.5 mil, and still making 15-20 BTC per week. So to get back to your "suggested" 3.75 mil USD valuation it would be back to 0.0005 BTC per share. 

Some are going to get caught holding the bag on these stocks, IMO with the increase in BTC price


** this also does not take into account within a year or 2 US betting will need to be blocked, imo**

Not sure if I understand or agree. If I am holding 20 btc worth of shares, and the market price of btc doubles, I still have 20 btc worth of shares no?

If I bettor should bet 1 btc as you suggested and the market price doubles, would they not still have a 1 btc bet? I'm assuming all bets will stay btc denominated regardless of market price just like any other btc gambling site. Maybe Im just not grasping this but Im not getting why it would be tough to maintain profits with a rising btc price, in my mind I trust btc more than fiat and I keep most of my money in btc with no fear.

Also, I would think the choice to block US betters would be up to CBTC and very hard to actually enforce (TOR, proxies)

They would have to be pressured by fiat banks just like partypoker was years ago. We are using btc, its international currency. If they had to block US IP's wouldnt people just do as they have done the past couple years and just take a few extra steps to hide their location? Correct me if I'm wrong but an all btc denominated company in a gambling friendly location is fairly safe. Just like exchanges or businesses who do not deal with fiat currently can't be regulated. We only have to follow their rules when we use THEIR currency.

Am I completely wrong here? Don't take me as argumentative I am not just having a discusssion

He's saying he views it like this:

I go to the casino and have $600 I can spend. At the price of $100/BTC, I have 6 BTC.

A month later, I go to the casino with the same $600 to spend. At the price of $200/BTC, I have 3 BTC.

Therefore, theoretically the amount of BTC wagered would go down because at the new price of $200/BTC, I don't have $1200 I can throw at it.

[bitrich]

I get that part but why does that decrease profits? Ill recieve less btc for dividends, but my share value will increase and the value of my dividend should not change. Am I still missing the point?

[ranlo]

I get that part but why does that decrease profits? Ill recieve less btc for dividends, but my share value will increase and the value of my dividend should not change. Am I still missing the point?

BTC is $100 each now. You invest $1000 into a company. That's 10 BTC.

Over a year, you earn back 5 BTC that are worth $500 each. So you have $2500 now ($1500 profit).

You could have put that same $1000 into the BTC and held it, where you'd now have $5000 ($4000 profit).

[bitrich]

But the shares are denominated in btc, So regargless of USD value I invest 10 BTC in the company, earn 5 BTC back. Now if the value of BTC doubled tomorrow I still have 10 BTC worth of shares. Which is worth twice as much. AS well as any profits the company made in btc is now worth twice as much. Not like if the btc market price doubled tomorrow and then my shares were only worth 5 btc. Now if the company were converting btc profits to fiat I could see what your saying but as far as I see they are totally btc denominated meaning whether you have your btc in a wallet or in shares your not missing out on market price increases. Tell me if Im wrong because thats how I thought most btc securities were.

[bitrich]

If the company is taking profits in btc and dividends paid in that same btc, and the companies holdings are btc, then the market price increasing also increases the companies holdings. In other words what Im saying is if btc value doubled overnight whatever holdings the company has doubles also. I havent seen any fluctuations in share price related to USD market of btc.

[bitrich]

I guess the question is then, is this companies holdings and profits staying in btc? If yes than their company value would increase with btc market increase. Your right though this is all so new that noone really knows how the economics will play out.

[Namworld]

Not like if the btc market price doubled tomorrow and then my shares were only worth 5 btc.

Actually, EXACTLY like that. The shares value are based on the profits the company make. If BTC price doubles, odds are that people will gamble with less BTC and profits will lower, thus so will the value of shares.

[bitrich]

Not like if the btc market price doubled tomorrow and then my shares were only worth 5 btc.

Actually, EXACTLY like that. The shares value are based on the profits the company make. If BTC price doubles, odds are that people will gamble with less BTC and profits will lower, thus so will the value of shares.

Now your talking about people gambling less because btc price is rising and I can see that.

But if a companies profits are btc and their bankroll is btc. The value doubles tomorrow (assuming this has no effect on people hoarding more btc)
Then the bankroll doubles in value overnight, the same amount of btc is there so your dividend doesn't change but it is now worth twice as much.
Now your share value will reflect the value of the company in terms of profit, holdings, (all btc denominated) and obviously investor sentiment but why would someone then only want to pay half the value (in btc only) for a share that reflects in a big part the value (in holdings and profit 100% BTC) of the company?Maybe I'm still off but I can't get my head around it any other way so far.

If you leave USD out of the picture completely why would anyone care unless they wanted to buy some USD.
Maybe I see things differently and this could be debatable I supposed so many factors and unknowns

Try thinking about it as if USD didnt exist, pretend USD is cupcakes. Now the price of the cupcake only matters if I'm hungry, maybe get some insight as to my thinking here.

[bitrich]

Not like if the btc market price doubled tomorrow and then my shares were only worth 5 btc.

Actually, EXACTLY like that. The shares value are based on the profits the company make. If BTC price doubles, odds are that people will gamble with less BTC and profits will lower, thus so will the value of shares.

I think he might also be confused by the fact he "put in" money.

The valuation of the company is based on profits & assets.

When CBTC listed for IPO they provided this financial statement - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmSWZWkGJ1V3dDl0STVudkZBUm1fRTlXMUFzZ3dkUXc#gid=0

Then sold 10% of the company shares for 540 BTC initially.  

Therefore the assets sit at 540 BTC from IPO + 677 BTC held + $9,800, this makes up only 25% of the companies evaluation so "halving" stock price with double of BTC price might be more like 40% decrease.

Exactly my point, assets of 540BTC will double in value. So even if its only 25 of the evaluation it still doubles the value (in USD) of the 540BTC

[Pale Phoenix]

factor in that bitcoin gambling is set to take over most online gambling in the next year or two and I'd say we have a decent investment here.

What's your source or reasoning for this assertion? From what I've read, major online casinos aren't seeing the demand for them to accept / switch to BTC.

The BTC gambling niche is certainly growing, but I'd be careful projecting that it will take over anywhere near "most" of online gaming anytime soon.

[bitrich]

factor in that bitcoin gambling is set to take over most online gambling in the next year or two and I'd say we have a decent investment here.

What's your source or reasoning for this assertion? From what I've read, major online casinos aren't seeing the demand for them to accept / switch to BTC.

The BTC gambling niche is certainly growing, but I'd be careful projecting that it will take over anywhere near "most" of online gaming anytime soon.

*In my opinion I should have put

I said most

And I believe this because BTC is perfect for gambling, it's like the attributes were created for it. I believe is BTC will be widely used and gain mainstream adoption within 5-10 years. When that being the case I believe BTC will be the top choice for online gamblers (if not sooner than mainstream btc adoption) why would you use anything else if btc is easier to get, safer and more private to use, and no waiting for deposits, payouts, or withdrawals. Almost nill fees to move this money around as well.

Now we have a long way still to go with BTC as far as ease of use and availability but I believe it will come. I mean everyday I see ideas, projects, and progress moving toward this. So first you have to believe how big bitcoin will be, then decide given a level playing firld, which would users prefer? Thats my source of reasoning.

[Namworld]

Exactly my point, assets of 540BTC will double in value. So even if its only 25 of the evaluation it still doubles the value (in USD) of the 540BTC

Not really, because you can't request to cash out those shares for a portion of the bankroll. Thus if profits are lower, no one might be willing to buy at full price.

When you buy a share, you buy rights to PROFITS. You also earn a proportional share of the sale value if the casino is sold. But there's nothing about owning the bankroll or being able to cash that out at any time.

[bitrich]

All discussion aside, I am glad we can have intelligent conversation here, whether I'm right or wrong, I'm enjoying the discussion. So far most of the thread I have seen related to securities are too flooded with idiots to get a word in edge-wise lol