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Author Topic: Bitcoin is becoming less and less adopted...  (Read 6149 times)
marcovaldo
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September 06, 2013, 01:56:00 PM
 #21

Number of addresses grows linearly, population grows exponentially. Hence their ratio goes towards zero.

Bitcoin was created in 2009, not 1950.
Since 2009, it changed. China took measures to reduce new borns...
Developped countries have a population which is decreasing...

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September 06, 2013, 01:58:40 PM
 #22

Number of addresses grows linearly, population grows exponentially. Hence their ratio goes towards zero.

Bitcoin was created in 2009, not 1950.
Since 2009, it changed. China took measures to reduce new borns...
Developped countries have a population which is decreasing...

I count all countries. The growth is still exponential. World War III would help to Bitcoin adoption, heh...
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September 06, 2013, 01:58:55 PM
 #23

From what I am seeing on the chart bellow, I see a clear uptrend of bitcoin usage in the network

Adoption ~~ number of unique addresses, not the number of transactions.

Right.
But the uptrend is the same


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September 06, 2013, 02:20:38 PM
 #24

Correct me if I’m wrong but these charts don’t even consider offchain transactions from https://inputs.io
So the real numbers are even greater

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September 06, 2013, 02:25:11 PM
 #25

Correct me if I’m wrong but these charts don’t even consider offchain transactions from https://inputs.io
So the real numbers are even greater

These inputs.io numbers are negligeable  Tongue
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September 06, 2013, 02:29:02 PM
 #26

Correct me if I’m wrong but these charts don’t even consider offchain transactions from https://inputs.io
So the real numbers are even greater

These inputs.io numbers are negligeable  Tongue

You think so? Is there any stats somewhere about this site?

marcovaldo
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September 06, 2013, 02:36:59 PM
 #27

You can ask TF about it but it is probably secret.

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September 06, 2013, 02:39:56 PM
 #28

Percentage-wise (the only relevant measure), Bitcoiners are growing much faster than global population.
terman45x
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September 06, 2013, 02:46:57 PM
 #29

Correct me if I’m wrong but these charts don’t even consider offchain transactions from https://inputs.io
So the real numbers are even greater

These inputs.io numbers are negligeable  Tongue

You think so? Is there any stats somewhere about this site?

If there are, these can be inflated at TradeFortress will
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September 06, 2013, 02:49:23 PM
 #30

Percentage-wise (the only relevant measure), Bitcoiners are growing much faster than global population.

Global population is always 100% Roll Eyes
What do you mean? OP said the opposite: the ratio is decreasing

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September 06, 2013, 05:30:23 PM
 #31

Percentage-wise (the only relevant measure), Bitcoiners are growing much faster than global population.

True bitcoiners follow the advice of Mr. Nakamoto and use a new address each time, so it's hard to assess real numbers. But let's assume that each day roughly 100'000 new users join us (110k is the extremum on http://blockchain.info/charts/n-unique-addresses). Today the world population has been increased by 200'000 persons (350k born, 150k died). Tomorrow 200k will become 201k, then 202k and so on. Each day number of NON-bitcoiners becomes higher. Looks like a Zeno's paradox, doesn't it? Wink
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September 06, 2013, 07:30:56 PM
 #32

in 2011 only a thousand legit merchants were known about.
in 2012 bitpay released more figures and other merchants appeared (5k merchants+)
in april 2013 foodler adopted bitcoin, that alone adopted 12k+ fastfood/restaurants into the bitcoin ecosystem. plus many other merchants coming forward too.

also in 2013 news media has finally shaken off that dusty cloth covering its eyes about bitcoin only being a blackmarket coin. and has had a sudden burst of positive media/press stories about bitcoin, causing alot more attention and adoption.

so so where is the slow down?

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September 06, 2013, 08:37:33 PM
 #33


True bitcoiners follow the advice of Mr. Nakamoto and use a new address each time, so it's hard to assess real numbers. But let's assume that each day roughly 100'000 new users join us (110k is the extremum on http://blockchain.info/charts/n-unique-addresses). Today the world population has been increased by 200'000 persons (350k born, 150k died). Tomorrow 200k will become 201k, then 202k and so on. Each day number of NON-bitcoiners becomes higher. Looks like a Zeno's paradox, doesn't it? Wink

If you select the log scale you will see the trend-line shows the number of Bitcoin users doubling every year. I am fairly certain the world population is growing at slower rate. Looks like there was a large peak in the spring. They'll be back.



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September 06, 2013, 09:20:22 PM
 #34

in 2011 only a thousand legit merchants were known about.
in 2012 bitpay released more figures and other merchants appeared (5k merchants+)
in april 2013 foodler adopted bitcoin, that alone adopted 12k+ fastfood/restaurants into the bitcoin ecosystem. plus many other merchants coming forward too.

also in 2013 news media has finally shaken off that dusty cloth covering its eyes about bitcoin only being a blackmarket coin. and has had a sudden burst of positive media/press stories about bitcoin, causing alot more attention and adoption.

so so where is the slow down?

No slow down but the rest of the world grows faster.


If you select the log scale you will see the trend-line shows the number of Bitcoin users doubling every year. I am fairly certain the world population is growing at slower rate. Looks like there was a large peak in the spring. They'll be back.

Where could I see these numbers?
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September 06, 2013, 09:29:02 PM
 #35

Almost every newborn becomes a user of fiat currencies. Bitcoin must become a national currency to be able to compete.

I'm about to become an uncle.  Can you open a bank account for a person that does not yet exist?

No need to find out...

I've already gifted him a cold storage address with btc attached.

Don't be afraid.  Wink
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September 06, 2013, 09:33:53 PM
Last edit: September 06, 2013, 11:46:33 PM by DeathAndTaxes
 #36


True bitcoiners follow the advice of Mr. Nakamoto and use a new address each time, so it's hard to assess real numbers. But let's assume that each day roughly 100'000 new users join us (110k is the extremum on http://blockchain.info/charts/n-unique-addresses). Today the world population has been increased by 200'000 persons (350k born, 150k died). Tomorrow 200k will become 201k, then 202k and so on. Each day number of NON-bitcoiners becomes higher. Looks like a Zeno's paradox, doesn't it? Wink

If you select the log scale you will see the trend-line shows the number of Bitcoin users doubling every year. I am fairly certain the world population is growing at slower rate. Looks like there was a large peak in the spring. They'll be back.

This.

The OP whole argument is that the world population is growing faster.  Only one problem ... it isn't.  World population growth is on the order of ~1.2% per year and the growth rate has been declining for the past 70 years.
http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/#growthrate

The OP also seems to number of unique addresses used DAILY (not total # of unique addresses) is the best metric for Bitcoin users.  Ok lets say for the sake of the argument it is.
http://blockchain.info/en/charts/n-unique-addresses?showDataPoints=false&timespan=all&show_header=true&daysAverageString=7&scale=0&address=

Jan 09 ~100 unique addresses per day
Aug 13 ~64,000 unique addresses per day
That is an annual growth rate of ~630%.

Over the same period of time the global population changed from:
July 09 - 6.83B
Aug 13 - 7.17B
That is an annual growth rate of ~1.5% (lets say 2%)

Last time I checked 630% annual growth is greater than 2% annual growth.

I don't think "number of unique addresses used DAILY" indicates that the OP thinks it does but lets assume 1 address used daily = 1 user.  That would assume on average each user makes 1 blockchain tx everyday which is probably at least 1 or 2 magnitudes too high.  I make a lot of blockchain tx and it averages to a a lot less than 1 per day.  Still for the sake of the argument lets assume 1 unique address per day = 1 active Bitcoin user.

2009 - 100 Bitcoin users vs 6.83B global population.  1 in 68,300,000 persons is a Bitcoin user.
2013 - 64,000 Bitcoin users vs 7.17B global population. 1 in 112,000 persons is a Bitcoin user.
Looks like growth to me.
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September 06, 2013, 11:15:25 PM
 #37

Bitcoin is the only asset that has a gravitational pull to 0

Hey I heard a quote that say, "Fiat isn't backed by gold anymore, it's just backed by bullets." So true, but again fiat isn't backed by anything other than brute force.

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September 06, 2013, 11:37:36 PM
 #38

Percentage-wise (the only relevant measure), Bitcoiners are growing much faster than global population.

+1
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September 07, 2013, 06:36:58 AM
 #39

2009 - 100 Bitcoin users vs 6.83B global population.  1 in 68,300,000 persons is a Bitcoin user.
2013 - 64,000 Bitcoin users vs 7.17B global population. 1 in 112,000 persons is a Bitcoin user.
Looks like growth to me.

3rd of Jan, 2009 - only 1 bitcoiner (Satoshi himself).
2013 - 64000 bitcoiners
----------------
6400000% growth?

What about this:
Each day number of NON-bitcoiners becomes higher.
?
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September 07, 2013, 05:14:29 PM
 #40

Well, the ratio of world population to bitcoiners will always be shrinking, because Africa has the most growth. Internet access there is a luxury in most places, so using world population-to Bitcoiners ratio is rather...off. I would use the number of retailers using Bitcoin, which is growing every day...
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