I'm a little surprised the Network Hash Rate isn't Lower

[A.Delaney]

It actually came back up a little bit to over 20EH. Im sure most people consider this fall to be temporary. I do. I figured the people that were in it just to make the easy money would have pulled the plug by now. At this price its almost better to just buy btc than mine it for an investment.

[1715498394]

1715498394

[1715498394]

1715498394

[1715498394]

1715498394

[fanatic26]

Most people dont think the sky is falling after 3-4 days of price drops and pull the plug on entire datacenters. You realize how many machines would have to be switched off to make a dent in the global rate right?

[digger888]

Give it six to nine months when companies go belly up due to cash flow issues. Most companies have 2-3 months of working capital then they would have to liquidate whatever they mine or to sell their equipment to pay the rent.

[lossol]

Well, difficulty will be lower in a few months if this is the start of the bitcoin bubble bursting. if it's anything like the previous bubbles, it's going to last 1-2 years. So the big mining farms will start shutting down unless they have free electricity. Then the difficulty will start going down.

Everything was rosy in 2017 including the stock market. People thought they were geniuses trading stocks or cryptos and making money hand over fist. Well, the party's over and it's time to pay the piper.

[Bucc5207]

Based on previous replies, I get why it's not going down.  But it baffles me that it keeps going up.  I just looked at the Bitcoin Stats site, and it shows 24-25 EH, time between blocks 6.9 minutes!  Guaranteed difficulty increase again this week.  Where is this coming from?   

[Raymond_B]

Just like the herd started buying BTC in November, everybody and their brother decided they were gonna mine to make magic free money. Well, just as the dip is shaking out the herd investors, it will shake out the people who thought they could park an S9 in their office...

[Bucc5207]

I kinda thought bandwagon, too.  Crikey.  20% increase since this thread started 6 hours ago.  That's something like 300,000 S9s.  Anybody notice the lights flickering?

[Raymond_B]

I kinda thought bandwagon, too.  Crikey.  20% increase since this thread started 6 hours ago.  That's something like 300,000 S9s.  Anybody notice the lights flickering?

There's a certain amount of inertia that will have to be overcome. Bitmain certainly is not slowing down shipping. They are clearing the shelves as fast as possible.

[Bucc5207]

There's a certain amount of inertia that will have to be overcome. Bitmain certainly is not slowing down shipping. They are clearing the shelves as fast as possible.

So I've heard.  Well, maybe we'll see a bunch of low-priced S9s on eBay before long.

[lossol]

Maybe those idiots on eBay that paid 5-6k for an S9 back in December/January will be selling them for $1400?

[Raymond_B]

Maybe those idiots on eBay that paid 5-6k for an S9 back in December/January will be selling them for $1400?

That is **exactly** the equivalent to the plebs that bought at $19k and sold at $11k... 

[A.Delaney]

Well bitmains  sales are going to drop off  if the price BTC stays down long enough. It’s falling like a rock right now. I guess we will know when an S9 is no longer sold out. This might put a hurtin on Canaan’s 821 sales.

[alh]

I kinda thought bandwagon, too.  Crikey.  20% increase since this thread started 6 hours ago.  That's something like 300,000 S9s.  Anybody notice the lights flickering?

What is the 20% that you are referring to? It's important to understand that there isn't some kind of "global hash rate meter".  Any website that provides an ESTIMATE of the current  hash rate is doing that based on recent block solve rate. In other words how quickly are blocks being solved. From that, the estimated hash rate is calculated. How many blocks to you use in that calculation? One, Ten, One Hundred? The difficulty adjustment is based on how long it took to solve 2016 blocks. During that interval, there can be wild swings, even if the final adjustment after 2016 blocks is quite small (even zero).

Of course there is new gear being switched on all the time. Stuff that was sold and just arrived (from Bitmain, Ebay, Bitfury, where ever) is going to get turned on. Nobody buys a miner and then doesn't switch it on for at least a while. It takes quite a while for miners, large or small, to turn off mining gear they have already paid for based strictly on BTC price.

[Par Avion]

There are a handful of theories floating around that the diff adj is being "attacked" ie: forced to keep rising to price out a lot of people from mining. Some of these theories have a little credibility, probably worth poking around some.

[IanWorthington]

BTC at usd 1k pays the power costs at 5c/kWh and current difficulty [on an S9].  I wouldn't expect to see any significant slowdown in mining until we get near those levels.

[sidehack]

That statement is useless without a hashing efficiency. Pays the power cost on what miner? Folks were mining on S5s during this bubble.

[philipma1957]

I kinda thought bandwagon, too.  Crikey.  20% increase since this thread started 6 hours ago.  That's something like 300,000 S9s.  Anybody notice the lights flickering?

What is the 20% that you are referring to? It's important to understand that there isn't some kind of "global hash rate meter".  Any website that provides an ESTIMATE of the current  hash rate is doing that based on recent block solve rate. In other words how quickly are blocks being solved. From that, the estimated hash rate is calculated. How many blocks to you use in that calculation? One, Ten, One Hundred? The difficulty adjustment is based on how long it took to solve 2016 blocks. During that interval, there can be wild swings, even if the final adjustment after 2016 blocks is quite small (even zero).

Of course there is new gear being switched on all the time. Stuff that was sold and just arrived (from Bitmain, Ebay, Bitfury, where ever) is going to get turned on. Nobody buys a miner and then doesn't switch it on for at least a while. It takes quite a while for miners, large or small, to turn off mining gear they have already paid for based strictly on BTC price.

https://btc.com/stats/diff

507,964   2018-02-06 08:34:49

506,016   2018-01-25 01:48:20


1948  blocks    in 12 days  and about 7 hours


12 x 144 = 1728
 7 x   6   =     42

1770  = 0%


1948/1770 =  1.1005   which is 10.05%

of course switching large amounts to BCC/BCH  can alter it.

current number mean the s-7 and the avalon 741 will be retired soon.

at 6 cent power an avalon 741 makes
at 4 cent power an avalon  741 makes

at 6 cent power an s7 makes
at 4 cent power an s7 makes


If I recall  Hash Nest charges 8 cents  so the s7 makes

what does this mean  diff will rise  or price will drop until the s-7 is done

and the s-7  is very close to dead at 8 cent price

[IanWorthington]

That statement is useless without a hashing efficiency. Pays the power cost on what miner? Folks were mining on S5s during this bubble.

My bad.  S9.  Is there any more efficient currently?

[A.Delaney]

At $.11/Kwh my S7 is pretty much done profiting at this point. Its basically breaking even at the moment. Ill let it run though since I don't cash in btc to pay my power bill.

[sidehack]

That statement is useless without a hashing efficiency. Pays the power cost on what miner? Folks were mining on S5s during this bubble.

My bad.  S9.  Is there any more efficient currently?

Not really, but there's a whole lot that's less efficient. How much of the network would disappear if the only thing profitable to run was the absolute most efficient gear?