Why the Bitcoin price is not going to fall below a certain price point

[Samarkand]

My theory is that we haven´t seen the bottom yet. The price
continues to fall and the trading volume is still pretty high.

However, I think eventually the support for certain price levels will be huge.
Why do I think this will be the case?

In my opinion the main influencing factor is the cost of mining.

A few links that contain estimations of the current cost of mining a single Bitcoin:
https://www.benzinga.com/fintech/17/12/10932967/how-much-does-it-cost-to-mine-cryptocurrency

Crescent Electric estimates that bitcoin is by far the most expensive cryptocurrency to mine,
with an average mining cost of $4,161 per bitcoin.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-10/bitcoin-can-drop-50-and-china-s-miners-will-still-make-money

Bitcoin mining is so profitable in China that the cryptocurrency could fall by half and
miners would still make money, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
Even at the country’s highest regulated electricity tariff, miners can profit
from bitcoin as long as it’s worth more than $6,925, BNEF analysts including Sophie Lu wrote in a report Wednesday.

Besides, everyone should take into account that these estimates don´t include the enormous
investments in hardware that are necessary to even have a shot at mining a block successfully.
On top of that several big mining companies are based in countries where the breakeven price
is higher than for the Chinese miners.

The miners will eventually need to support the price at a level that still allows them to
mine Bitcoin profitably. They are heavily incentivized to do this, because they have invested
hundreds of millions of $ into mining equipment, bribes and other stuff.
There are several precedents where miners have propped up the Bitcoin price before and
they will do it again eventually, because the whole mining industry has grown so much.

Of course they won´t support the price at the current price level, because it could make sense
for some of the mining companies with a big warchest to first wait until some of their competitors
have gone bankrupt. But somewhere between 2500-3500 $ / BTC they will have to support the price
and they will do it successfully.

We won´t see Bitcoin below 1000 $ again, because the miners are heavily incentivized to prevent
this from happening and they have the money to do so.

Place your bids accordingly.

[ktabb]

Bitcoin will fall below $1,000 because there aren't enough people out there who want to buy bitcoin who will keep it that high. Miners can be incentivized all they want, it doesn't matter unless there are buyers out there. Why would anyone buy bitcoin now when they have so many options of alt coins, and bitcoin has so many major problems with scalability? They certainly are not buying bitcoin as a store of value since it is clearly failing as a store of value, and they aren't buying bitcoin to spend it as a currency since sending it to someone else requires nosebleed fees and often multiple days of waiting.

Why is bitcoin worth anything more than a tiny, speculative market cap? $100 million would be generous IMO, putting the price per bitcoin around $60 per bitcoin. That is a very optimistic/bullish estimate for the real value of bitcoin and where the price could end up.

[Samarkand]

...

Why is bitcoin worth anything more than a tiny, speculative market cap? $100 million would be generous IMO, putting the price per bitcoin around $60 per bitcoin. That is a very optimistic/bullish estimate for the real value of bitcoin and where the price could end up.

At 60$ per BTC Bitcoin would have a market cap of ~1 billion $ and not 100M $. You seem to have
made an error in your calculation.

Thank you for sharing your opinion.

[Wilhelm]

Cost of mining a bitcoin is way higher than $60 so stop the FUD please

[imapessimist]

I don't even get the point of mining Bitcoin.  Except to make money.  Why does it even need to be mined?  Who said it did.  But I am only a newbie and don't understand anything. I don't think there is enough people to rush in and buy Bitcoin even at say 6.5k because there is no guarantee that it will go up any time soon.  Though it probably might a bit.  But a big fall is at least as much possible. 

[cryptokwuk]

Oh i know, i know.

Because you can't get a negative value, thus it's value cannot fall below 0 in any reference currency or asset.

I guess we're all save now!

[1Referee]

The point is that with weak hands selling their coins like there is no tomorrow, the cost of mining has no meaning for the time being. Miners could support the price, but at what cost? It's a very important decision that they have to make, because they can continue supporting the price without any effect due to how people keep dumping the price down, or they use these funds to function as buffer till the market climbs back up again. I personally find the latter option more realistic. With how the price has been peaking at near $20,000 levels, they have made themselves a tremendous amount of money, where we also don't have to forget the massive fees they have earned due to how congested the network was. The price will bounce back up once the panic amongst noobs calms down. People act like this is going to be the end, while we last year were hovering around the $1000 level. 

[Wilhelm]

Oh i know, i know.

Because you can't get a negative value, thus it's value cannot fall below 0 in any reference currency or asset.

I guess we're all save now!

At least it's not built on debt like the $ or Euro

And it's "safe" or "saved" .... not "save"

[ask]

Now actually hodler sold out their bitcoins who are already in profit. Now its time to turn normal. Miners will start mining after chinese holdiay.
Also tethered margin traders sold out. so we are now in normal price miners will start to dump around 7k-8k level. So price will not rise more then 8k for a long time.
Maybe after halving price will again double and people will jump in the boat while price is rising.

[Viper1]

We won´t see Bitcoin below 1000 $ again

I don't buy your argument. As long as they can keep their operation running at some level of profit at $1000 or lower, why wouldn't they. They can be buying up cheap coins at that price like all the smart money and then wait for the next halving to start the next pump. Keep in mind that people were making the same arguments that it would never hit $200 (which was around a "cost per bitcoin" price at the time) after the 2013 ATH.. And it did.. And it stayed in that range for many months.

Something else to keep in mind regarding that cost per bitcoin. My calculations are already lower than that. In addition, as the price of bitcoin drops, more miners will shut off their equipment and/or move to other coins and so the cost per bitcoin will continue to drop. Same thing happened before and there's really nothing new here including "bad news out of china" after an ATH.

[TERA2]

Theres no such thing as a cost of production for bitcoin. The bitcoin difficult is adjusted every 10 minutes to account for network competition. Mining doesnt affect price - other way around.

[Wilhelm]

Theres no such thing as a cost of production for bitcoin. The bitcoin difficult is adjusted every 10 minutes to account for network competition. Mining doesnt affect price - other way around.

That's like saying that there is no cost for mining gold or other valuables because the price is determined when you sell it.
Sounds a bit like Schrodingers Cat.

Current Bitcoin difficulty and available mining gear does represent the cost of a Bitcoin.

[tokeweed]

Nice theory...  Here's mine.  We know that BTC has become a 'stone in the bankers' shoe', meaning it has become too disruptive, annoying and unpredictable.  We also know that they are the 'masters of the universe', meaning they have the political power, the money and everything else they need to take something down if they truly wanted it to happen.

And based on what you said about the costs of mining, what you see as strength, I see an attack vector.  What if all the world's bankers are starting to work together to crash BTC and keep the price down long enough to bankrupt the miners out of business and discourage anyone from mining it again?

I think this is where the CPU and GPU mined coins will find its strength.  *cough* Monero *cough*  

[Torque]

Theres no such thing as a cost of production for bitcoin. The bitcoin difficult is adjusted every 10 minutes to account for network competition. Mining doesnt affect price - other way around.

Perhaps, but once new mining hardware has been put into operation and new power lease deals have been struck (often 6-12 months in advance), miners are reluctant to turn off mining rigs in response to a falling price, which in turn keeps the hashrate up.

So they would rather withold newly minted coins in order to restrict supply, thin the exchange floats, and thus get a better price. Which keeps their ROI up and thus the price up.

[TERA2]

Theres no such thing as a cost of production for bitcoin. The bitcoin difficult is adjusted every 10 minutes to account for network competition. Mining doesnt affect price - other way around.

That's like saying that there is no cost for mining gold or other valuables because the price is determined when you sell it.
Sounds a bit like Schrodingers Cat.

Current Bitcoin difficulty and available mining gear does represent the cost of a Bitcoin.

No the price of mining gold is pretty fixed. You have tractors and digging and labor etc. and it's always the same regardless of the price of gold. The cost of mining gold is not a variable in a computer. You absolutely need a certain amount of money to mine gold regardless of how many people are mining gold. With bitcoin, on the other hand, if all the other miners except you stopped mining, then the cost of mining bitcoins would be 0 for  you.

[talkbitcoin]

I think this is where the CPU and GPU mined coins will find its strength.  *cough* Monero *cough* 

i am no expert in mining but just as an example i remember reading that litecoin changed to Scrypt to prevent ASIC mining. but it has ASICs for LTC now!
there is also a common saying that goes "there is no ASIC resistance"!

and on top of it, what is CPU, GPU mining? can't someone just create a new ASIC for mining these coins? the fact that nobody has bothered to do it yet only means that there were no market for it.
i don't see it as strength. i see it as something that has not yet been put to test.

[Viper1]

Theres no such thing as a cost of production for bitcoin. The bitcoin difficult is adjusted every 10 minutes to account for network competition. Mining doesnt affect price - other way around.

That's like saying that there is no cost for mining gold or other valuables because the price is determined when you sell it.
Sounds a bit like Schrodingers Cat.

Current Bitcoin difficulty and available mining gear does represent the cost of a Bitcoin.

No the price of mining gold is pretty fixed. You have tractors and digging and labor etc. and it's always the same regardless of the price of gold. The cost of mining gold is not a variable in a computer. You absolutely need a certain amount of money to mine gold regardless of how many people are mining gold. With bitcoin, on the other hand, if all the other miners except you stopped mining, then the cost of mining bitcoins would be 0 for  you.

Cost of mining is, at a bare minimum, your electricity. So no, not 0.

[Wilhelm]

Nice theory...  Here's mine.  We know that BTC has become a 'stone in the bankers' shoe', meaning it has become too disruptive, annoying and unpredictable.  We also know that they are the 'masters of the universe', meaning they have the political power, the money and everything else they need to take something down if they truly wanted it to happen.

And based on what you said about the costs of mining, what you see as strength, I see an attack vector.  What if all the world's bankers are starting to work together to crash BTC and keep the price down long enough to bankrupt the miners out of business and discourage anyone from mining it again?

I think this is where the CPU and GPU mined coins will find its strength.  *cough* Monero *cough*  

Bitcoin is annoying and disruptive.... It's a disruptor, redefining economics making bankers scared since they cannot influence it.
If bankers are the master of the universe why is the Dow Jones down the rabbit hole at the moment?

Let's say they want to stop Bitcoin mining with all their political power they would need to
- Ban hardware (GPU/CPU/ASICs/Transistors)
- Ban internet

Further more they would need to do a global attack on Bitcoin, since any country banning Bitcoin would make citizens move elsewhere where they are welcomed.

I don't see all the worlds bankers working together .... hey a purple unicorn  


PS: I also have Monero ;-)

[tokeweed]

I think this is where the CPU and GPU mined coins will find its strength.  *cough* Monero *cough*  

i am no expert in mining but just as an example i remember reading that litecoin changed to Scrypt to prevent ASIC mining. but it has ASICs for LTC now!
there is also a common saying that goes "there is no ASIC resistance"!

If you missed Fluffypony's interview, he already said that if somebody attempted to develop an ASIC for Monero, their team would break it.  And he said it really confidently too.

Nice theory...  Here's mine.  We know that BTC has become a 'stone in the bankers' shoe', meaning it has become too disruptive, annoying and unpredictable.  We also know that they are the 'masters of the universe', meaning they have the political power, the money and everything else they need to take something down if they truly wanted it to happen.

And based on what you said about the costs of mining, what you see as strength, I see an attack vector.  What if all the world's bankers are starting to work together to crash BTC and keep the price down long enough to bankrupt the miners out of business and discourage anyone from mining it again?

I think this is where the CPU and GPU mined coins will find its strength.  *cough* Monero *cough*  

Bitcoin is annoying and disruptive.... It's a disruptor, redefining economics making bankers scared since they cannot influence it.
If bankers are the master of the universe why is the Dow Jones down the rabbit hole at the moment?

Let's say they want to stop Bitcoin mining with all their political power they would need to
- Ban hardware (GPU/CPU/ASICs/Transistors)
- Ban internet

Further more they would need to do a global attack on Bitcoin, since any country banning Bitcoin would make citizens move elsewhere where they are welcomed.

I don't see all the worlds bankers working together .... hey a purple unicorn  


PS: I also have Monero ;-)

All they need to do is to ban the exchanges or make it very hard enough for ordinary people like you and me to trade BTC.  

And about the DOW, didn't it occur to you that they're making money in up or down markets, and didn't it also occur to you that they are the pin that burst bubbles?

They've been around for centuries, they've bankrolled wars all over the world and elected people in positions of power.  Don't tell me they're going down just because of Bitcoin.  Rofl.  How naive you are.

The bankers will regulate the sh*t out of crypto, ruin it and strangle everything we love about it.

[TERA2]

Theres no such thing as a cost of production for bitcoin. The bitcoin difficult is adjusted every 10 minutes to account for network competition. Mining doesnt affect price - other way around.

That's like saying that there is no cost for mining gold or other valuables because the price is determined when you sell it.
Sounds a bit like Schrodingers Cat.

Current Bitcoin difficulty and available mining gear does represent the cost of a Bitcoin.

No the price of mining gold is pretty fixed. You have tractors and digging and labor etc. and it's always the same regardless of the price of gold. The cost of mining gold is not a variable in a computer. You absolutely need a certain amount of money to mine gold regardless of how many people are mining gold. With bitcoin, on the other hand, if all the other miners except you stopped mining, then the cost of mining bitcoins would be 0 for  you.

Cost of mining is, at a bare minimum, your electricity. So no, not 0.

Its essentially 0. If youre the only one mining then difficulty levels would approach 0 and no matter how much power you used every 10 minutes you would get 12.5 bitcoins. You could be using 1hz or your cpu on your ipad, and your cost of mining one bitcoin is 1 cent. I dont think you can describe any kind of similar situation with gold - its strictly a feature of the bitcoin protocol in which bitcoin will survive and work exactly the same way no matter how many miners there are. Oh and some places have free power, but thats beside the point.