What expected/specific 2013 events should the market be watching for?

[DavidBAL]

There are a few events on the horizon that we definitely know (or very likely) are going to happen in 2013 and should have a positive/negative impact on the market... please provide suggestions so I can throw together a speculative calendar.

Examples:

-Re-Launch of BitInstant
-New deposit/withdrawal methods at MtGox
-FEC decision on whether BTC can be used in political contributions
-Launch of yBitcoin (shameless plug!)
-Conferences including Amsterdam/Atlanta/Manila/Las Vegas
-Relaunch of Tradehill
-Launch of BTC Global exchange
-Some type of official relationship with eBay
-Bitcoin ticker publicly available at Bloomberg terminals
-CoinSetter finishes beta
-Aggregate Chinese Bitcoin volume exceeds Aggregate volume of MtGoc/BitStamp/BTCe for first time
-Delivery of first 28nm ASIC
-Installation of first public Bitcoin ATM!

What are your thoughts or suggestions? What should we be looking forward to?

[grovestr]

Single digits.

[DavidBAL]

Single digits.

Should I give that an anticipated date of Nov. or Dec.? 

[ElectricMucus]

Another video of Roger Ver addressing the Nation of Bitcoinica on the state of MtGox.

[adpinbr]

Fiat capitulation, EU countries follow Germany's lead, EU bailout, QE 4

[adpinbr]

^+1

[stash]

US and UK recognize it as private money.

[RationalSpeculator]

The incorporation of the Zerocoin protocols into Bitcoin. 

I wasn't aware of zerocoin. Looks interesting. Thanks.

[JimboToronto]

The incorporation of the Zerocoin protocols into Bitcoin. 

+1

I've been patiently waiting.

[Tzupy]

The incorporation of the Zerocoin protocols into Bitcoin. 

Is this possible without a hard fork? I just don't know, that's why I'm asking .

[RodeoX]

I like your list. 
I would also add: Adoption in the remittance market.

[qwk]

I like your list. 
I would also add: Adoption in the remittance market.

That's not really an event, but a progress over time...
I personally could imagine Western Union "adopting" bitcoins sometime in the not-so-far future being the single most important event regarding the remittance market. But I don't expect that to occur in 2013.

[RodeoX]

I like your list. 
I would also add: Adoption in the remittance market.

That's not really an event, but a progress over time...
I personally could imagine Western Union "adopting" bitcoins sometime in the not-so-far future being the single most important event regarding the remittance market. But I don't expect that to occur in 2013.

True. I was thinking of something like a rapid adoption of use. But, as you point out, not really an "event".

[Stephen Gornick]

What should we be looking forward to?

SEC's completion of rules for equity crowdfunding.
This is a long shot, but that event may be significant for Bitcoin if the cyber-equity platforms get discovered as being suitable for equity crowdfunding globally.
When the SEC releases its rulemaking for crowdfunding (possibly later this year yet, or if not then early 2014) many investors will be disappointed.  They can't trade their investment for the first year, foreigners can't invest, etc.  And those looking into doing a listing (reportedly) will be expensive involving many thousands or tens of thousands of dollars even.   So there's an opportunity for Bitcoin "virtual stock markets" like BitFunder, BTCT.co, MPEX, etc., to gain some decent traction for getting true equity crowdfunding out there.

[StarenseN]

- The surge of mastercoin protocol (?) (mastercoin.org)
- Stock market crash
- end of QE (FED)
- emerging country currencies crash (on-going)
- the new ATH price (>266$)
- China statement about Bitcoin

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

- Release of Trezor or other hardware wallets
- Various possible watershed events in the financial world
- The recognition of Bitcoin as the bedrock of the "financial internet" (adoption of the FI lens/paradigm)

[domob]

The incorporation of the Zerocoin protocols into Bitcoin. 

Is this possible without a hard fork? I just don't know, that's why I'm asking .

It seems like it would be tricky to make sure it is backward compatible, I don't know.

I don't think it can be made backwards compatible - if zerocoin transactions are introduced, old nodes won't recognize them and reject them instead.  However, I'm not sure whether this will happen at all.  Zerocoin has massive scalability problems (with redeeming transactions of size 40 KiB I think), and other alternatives exist.  IMHO, things like CoinJoin / BitPrivacy are much more likely to bring anonymity soon, without needing to change the protocol at all.

[Nagan]

The incorporation of the Zerocoin protocols into Bitcoin. 

Is this possible without a hard fork? I just don't know, that's why I'm asking .

It seems like it would be tricky to make sure it is backward compatible, I don't know.

I don't think it can be made backwards compatible - if zerocoin transactions are introduced, old nodes won't recognize them and reject them instead.  However, I'm not sure whether this will happen at all.  Zerocoin has massive scalability problems (with redeeming transactions of size 40 KiB I think), and other alternatives exist.  IMHO, things like CoinJoin / BitPrivacy are much more likely to bring anonymity soon, without needing to change the protocol at all.

Zerocoin introduction at this stage could fuck up the relationships with regulators, which seem to be quite acceptant to Bitcoin recently.

[600watt]

opec decides to sell crude oil for bitcoin only. 

[DavidBAL]

So new additions to be added

-SEC clarification (unlikely for 2013?)
-UK/EU policy clarification along the lines of Germany (again not very specific but I do believe is likely in short term)
-zerocoin implentation
-Trezor delivery
-Mastercoin adoption (what would be the specific catalyst?)

A lot of good ideas on here but unfortunately few of them could be given a relatively clear date.

Any other specific ideas? I will post a link to a general-calendar so people can keep track of some of this.