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Author Topic: Efficient Market Hypothesis  (Read 3630 times)
Hal
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January 21, 2011, 12:57:00 AM
 #1

The EMH says that market prices are approximately "correct" and you can't expect large gains. Yet many Bitcoiners expect large increases in the price of bitcoins. Is the EMH failing in the Bitcoin market, giving us a true free lunch? Or are Bitcoin investors deluding themselves by not recognizing the likelihood of loss?

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January 21, 2011, 01:06:34 AM
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IMO the BTC market is currently skewed because so many participants have coins that they got for "free". In that sense it's all free lunch and the actual market value hasn't been established yet. Throw in the fact that widespread adoption (ie: demand) hasn't even begun to occur yet and there are just too many uncertainties for the market to decide what a BTC is really worth.

I wouldn't say the EMH has failed, it just hasn't had enough time to arrive at a conclusion yet.

The market is still too small to have truly achieved efficiency is maybe one way to think of it.

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January 21, 2011, 01:11:44 AM
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I think it's "tend toward".

The reason why this is because, as the market get larger, the more way we can send individuals to try and solve all kind of problem.

Lot of those individuals are going to fail, but somebody will figure out something and gain a profit.

We have an extremely small economy, worth only about 1.97 million USD.

Stephen Gornick
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January 21, 2011, 01:31:45 AM
 #4

Thus there is an imbalance between the supply of one commodity (bitcoins) and the supply of the exchange medium (LRUSD)

At this phase, insufficient access to LRUSD (the common denominator for trading) is Bitcoin's Achilles' heel.
  http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2436.msg32962#msg32962

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January 21, 2011, 01:42:26 AM
 #5

And the lack of a general stock market does not help, not being able to trade across with various currencies and commodities and meta-trading.

The btc market is as efficient as it can be at the moment, and the price is the correct one, even taking into account the expectation of an increase in value. The only issue is that the market does not know by how much the value will increase or when, if it did then btc would already be at that point.

A market can't predict the future, but it can see a general trend. The fact that people are spending btc is disproving the deflationary spiral myth, and if it's not being spent now, it will later, which will fuel growth as accumulated capital.

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kiba
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January 21, 2011, 01:47:53 AM
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A market can't predict the future, but it can see a general trend. The fact that people are spending btc is disproving the deflationary spiral myth, and if it's not being spent now, it will later, which will fuel growth as accumulated capital.

So true! I am accumulating as much bitcoin as I possibly can right now. I already sold advertising, writings, programming, drawing, etc. I even got tipped!

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January 21, 2011, 03:33:36 AM
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The EMH is only anywhere near correct when all possible valuers know about and have access to the a free market.

If I invent a lighter than balsa wood stronger than titanium alloy in my basement and sell some to my neighbor for $1/oz it isn't right to say that that is it's value. I don't know how long it will take to get the word out about this material, probably not as long as explaining and spreading bitcoin though. As someone mentioned, "tends towards" is a lot more accurate.


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January 21, 2011, 09:05:58 AM
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The EMH says that market prices are approximately "correct" and you can't expect large gains.

"You can't expect large gains" means that the expectation value of your investment is approx. zero. But that doesn't mean large gains aren't probable.

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ribuck
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January 21, 2011, 12:00:23 PM
 #9

The Efficient Market Hypotheses doesn't apply, because it's not an efficient market.

It's too cumbersome to get funds in and out (for many people), and even where it is possible the time delays mess with the market.

More importantly, the future value of Bitcoins depends almost entirely on the presence or absence of future coercive government action. That must be one of the hardest things (if not the hardest thing) for any market to predict.
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January 21, 2011, 05:36:27 PM
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You're not factoring in the risks. If bitcoin fails we lose all our money. Secondly you're not factoring in time preferences, lots of money now is worth more that lots of money later (this is why you get above inflation interest rates on savings).

The value of bitcoins at the moment is:
  (Value of bitcoins when successful) * (Chance that bitcoin will succeed) * (Time preference factor)

Simplisticly the time preference factor the money lost because you could

As time goes by, the chance that bitcoin will succeed and the time preference factor go up. When/if bitcoin has succeeded they will both be 1.

I doubt most people here have their life savings in bitcoin.
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January 21, 2011, 06:01:16 PM
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I doubt most people here have their life savings in bitcoin.

What if someone has no savings except for a few bitcoins? Would that be the same thing?

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January 21, 2011, 06:08:11 PM
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I doubt most people here have their life savings in bitcoin.

But I don't doubt there are many here whose only life saving are in bitcoins.

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January 21, 2011, 06:12:09 PM
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I doubt most people here have their life savings in bitcoin.

But I don't doubt there are many here whose only life saving are in bitcoins.

I have some saving in dollars, but I fear for the time when hyperinflation kicks in.

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January 21, 2011, 10:58:49 PM
 #14

There are only 2 major threats to bitcoin in the long run as I see it.

1.Government action.
Those who write libertarian theory are not always the ones who benefit from markets or even participate. Sometimes some of them make gov sound so bad that it discourages actual capitalist action. IE "Bitcoin is cool but why bother? the 'government' will just crush it"
Governments by their very nature are behind the curve, it will take them some time to make Bitcoin illegal. Even if some governments make it illegal the chances of ALL governments making it illegal is nearly zero. Due to the distributed nature of Bitcoin, even mild success in a few small jurisdictions guarantees the value of a Bitcoin.

2.Competing digital currencies.
If a whole slew of digital currencies begin to prop up everywhere then the above point will be even less of a threat since there will be more market pressure to make alternative currency permissible. However if Bitcoin will survive the evolution of currency is not certain, a superior system could supplant it.

So as a longer term investment strategy, rather keep your eye on all digital currencies and invest in the best ones.

Whatever a Bitcoin is worth now it is a fraction of a fraction of the value they will be if the currency is even mildly successful. If you buy Bitcoins today and hold them, even if your jurisdiction develops a problem with Bitcoin ownership, you can still sell your Bitcoins to a exchange in a participating jurisdiction and have the money transferred to you via more traditional means.

Fundamentally Bitcoin is an incredible idea and at today's prices akin to land giveaways in the old west.

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January 22, 2011, 03:49:00 AM
 #15

I say bring it on, I've already got some coins, and we know what happens to prices during prohibition Smiley

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January 22, 2011, 11:03:17 PM
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Here is a biz plan proposal. Accumulate 0.01% of 21 million BTC or 2100 BTC now...
This special offer is limited to the first 10,000 participants.

... store in many places do not touch for 50 years
Heh, you youngsters can talk about your 50-year investments. I'm old enough that I won't be around in 50 years, so I'll need to opt for the 20-year investment option.
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January 23, 2011, 04:25:57 AM
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There are only 2 major threats to bitcoin in the long run as I see it.

1.Government action.
Those who write libertarian theory are not always the ones who benefit from markets or even participate. Sometimes some of them make gov sound so bad that it discourages actual capitalist action. IE "Bitcoin is cool but why bother? the 'government' will just crush it"
Governments by their very nature are behind the curve, it will take them some time to make Bitcoin illegal. Even if some governments make it illegal the chances of ALL governments making it illegal is nearly zero. Due to the distributed nature of Bitcoin, even mild success in a few small jurisdictions guarantees the value of a Bitcoin.

2.Competing digital currencies.
If a whole slew of digital currencies begin to prop up everywhere then the above point will be even less of a threat since there will be more market pressure to make alternative currency permissible. However if Bitcoin will survive the evolution of currency is not certain, a superior system could supplant it.

So as a longer term investment strategy, rather keep your eye on all digital currencies and invest in the best ones.

Whatever a Bitcoin is worth now it is a fraction of a fraction of the value they will be if the currency is even mildly successful. If you buy Bitcoins today and hold them, even if your jurisdiction develops a problem with Bitcoin ownership, you can still sell your Bitcoins to a exchange in a participating jurisdiction and have the money transferred to you via more traditional means.

Fundamentally Bitcoin is an incredible idea and at today's prices akin to land giveaways in the old west.

You are forgetting a third major risk - a major bug in the bitcoin software that may be exploited in the future as bitcoin becomes more popular. The existence of such a bug will become increasingly less likely as bitcoin is used by more people and scrutinized more, but so far no security audit has been performed on the bitcoin client by any reliably third party, there exists no clear specification of the protocol used, and there are no alternative implementations of it. The bitcoin infrastructure rests completely on a a single client, and that may very well be its Achilles heel.

It is very important right now to write down a rock solid protocol definition for the bitcoin network, and add multiple independent implementations of it. That will insure that a single security bug in one of the implementations will not bring down the entire network.
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January 23, 2011, 04:27:17 AM
 #18

I say bring it on, I've already got some coins, and we know what happens to prices during prohibition Smiley


The price increases relative to the risk involved Smiley

war on drugs = fail
war on terrorism=fail
war on alcohol=fail
war on porn=fail
war on bittorrent=epic fail
war on bitcoins=


I guess you can figure out the answer

 Cheesy

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January 23, 2011, 06:45:21 AM
 #19

The EMH says that market prices are approximately "correct" and you can't expect large gains. Yet many Bitcoiners expect large increases in the price of bitcoins. Is the EMH failing in the Bitcoin market, giving us a true free lunch? Or are Bitcoin investors deluding themselves by not recognizing the likelihood of loss?

The EMH is crap. They dont even acknowledge the possibility of bubbles. EMH is used for modeling financial investments mathematically and may have its uses in some specific cases, but as a general economic theory is crap, nonsense. So I would not make much of it.
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January 23, 2011, 07:57:49 AM
 #20

The EMH says that market prices are approximately "correct" and you can't expect large gains. Yet many Bitcoiners expect large increases in the price of bitcoins. Is the EMH failing in the Bitcoin market, giving us a true free lunch? Or are Bitcoin investors deluding themselves by not recognizing the likelihood of loss?

The EMH is crap. They dont even acknowledge the possibility of bubbles. EMH is used for modeling financial investments mathematically and may have its uses in some specific cases, but as a general economic theory is crap, nonsense. So I would not make much of it.

+1
EMH does not help at all to base meaningful financial decisions upon.

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