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Author Topic: It takes 1.25 million USDs to push the the price to 21.5 USD/BTC  (Read 2853 times)
gongcheng
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July 15, 2011, 09:03:02 AM
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I just calculated how much money it will take to push the price to 21.5 USD/BTC according to the depth data on mtgox.

The result is 1253320 USD. Oh, My God.

Unless some billionaires start to play bitcoin...

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gongcheng
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July 15, 2011, 09:10:51 AM
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Another calculation is that in fact the community of bitcoin is becoming larger every day by 300*24*14=100 800 USD dollars when the price remains on 14 USD/BTC.

This means if the billionaire I mentioned above want to drive up the price, he may need to pay 100800 USD everyday...

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July 15, 2011, 10:54:52 AM
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If its correct that the value up until 21.5 Usd is 554868 USD in total.

Its just around 1500 persons spending an avarage of $370
Or 3000 buying for an avarage of only $184.

Consider that a lot of people here allready do buy at this price and there will be more new buyers each month.
Its very easy for the price to go up to $21.5

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July 15, 2011, 04:37:33 PM
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and when it hits $17 even more BTC will be for sale......

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July 15, 2011, 04:46:45 PM
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Wow, that's definitely the largest I've ever seen the asks.  Just before a couple of the major rallies (I think the 18 to 31 and the 8 to 18), the asks shown totaled around $450k.  Maybe more asks are being shown now?  *shrug*  Regardless, that $450k was eaten up in a day, both times.  So I wouldn't let your guard down just yet...
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July 15, 2011, 06:53:24 PM
 #6

I just calculated how much money it will take to push the price to 21.5 USD/BTC according to the depth data on mtgox.

The result is 1253320 USD. Oh, My God.

Unless some billionaires start to play bitcoin...

What about the people who are just holding on to BTC?

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July 15, 2011, 06:54:22 PM
 #7

I just calculated how much money it will take to push the price to 21.5 USD/BTC according to the depth data on mtgox.

The result is 1253320 USD. Oh, My God.

Unless some billionaires start to play bitcoin...

What about the people who are just holding on to BTC?
They won't be placing asks on MtGox, so wouldn't be counted...
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July 15, 2011, 11:11:22 PM
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Show your work
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July 16, 2011, 11:50:19 AM
 #9

1,25mio usd isnt really much. there are 10 million dollar millionaires in the world.

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July 16, 2011, 02:35:22 PM
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Actually it would not cost a single dollar to get the price to 21.5.
The only thing necessary would be all sellers increasing their price to 21.5 or above, and voila price would be 21.5.
But it seems that a lot of folks like to sell at lower prices, maybe to keep the price down.
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July 16, 2011, 02:56:29 PM
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Actually it would not cost a single dollar to get the price to 21.5.
The only thing necessary would be all sellers increasing their price to 21.5 or above, and voila price would be 21.5.
But it seems that a lot of folks like to sell at lower prices, maybe to keep the price down.

Read up on prisoners dilemma. It applies perfectly.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prisoner's_dilemma

There will always be scared and anxious people willing to betray that 'trust' for their own very-short term gain even if they could earn more a few weeks down the road by not panicking.

The fact is, people panic. Especially inexperienced traders and miners

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July 16, 2011, 05:46:00 PM
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Actually it would not cost a single dollar to get the price to 21.5.
The only thing necessary would be all sellers increasing their price to 21.5 or above, and voila price would be 21.5.
But it seems that a lot of folks like to sell at lower prices, maybe to keep the price down.

Read up on prisoners dilemma. It applies perfectly.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prisoner's_dilemma

There will always be scared and anxious people willing to betray that 'trust' for their own very-short term gain even if they could earn more a few weeks down the road by not panicking.

The fact is, people panic. Especially inexperienced traders and miners

The Prisoner's Dilemma is all about potentially lessening punishment (with pitfalls) rather than seeking reward like with Bitcoin trading.  It's a similar problem but definately not the same.

Your post seems to suggest that people who are willing to sell bitcoins at $14 each are people who panic, are inexperienced, and are wrong to sell at such a cheap price.  Who says $14 is the wrong price?  Maybe it's as good as it gets for weeks, months, or even years?  I sold a bunch of bitcoins at $18 and $20.  Not such a bad trade, looking at the past few weeks of data.  In late April many people on this forum were advocating an exponential rise in bitcoin's price simply because of the difficulty rate.  I disagreed, and sold.  Glad I did.  But hey, maybe bitcoins will trade at $100 next year and I'll eat my words.

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aq
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July 16, 2011, 09:20:21 PM
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Your post seems to suggest that people who are willing to sell bitcoins at $14 each are people who panic, are inexperienced, and are wrong to sell at such a cheap price.  Who says $14 is the wrong price?  Maybe it's as good as it gets for weeks, months, or even years?  I sold a bunch of bitcoins at $18 and $20.  Not such a bad trade, looking at the past few weeks of data.  In late April many people on this forum were advocating an exponential rise in bitcoin's price simply because of the difficulty rate.  I disagreed, and sold.  Glad I did.  But hey, maybe bitcoins will trade at $100 next year and I'll eat my words.


Well you as the seller define the price. The buyer is always bullish. Every time you sell some bitcoin (in the "hope" that the price goes down), you sell it to someone who thinks that the price goes up. So basically every buyer thinks that the price goes up. Or to put it another way, half of the traders think that the price will go up. Only the sellers keep the price low.
So the conclusion for sellers should be, that whenever one can sell at a certain price, that price was essentially too low, because whenever one buy at a certain price, this one thinks that it will go up, and therefor would have bought at an even higher price.

It comes down to this: If you and all others would have only sold at $100 and above, the price would now be > $100.


The fact is, people panic. Especially inexperienced traders and miners

Well, I agree, especially on inexperienced traders.  Lets say the price is 14 and there is some buy wall at 13.5. Then those inexperienced traders believe that the price is falling, and hence they make it falling. While in fact the buyers at 13.5 think that the price will rice and they only want to buy cheap, because if the buyers would not believe in raising prices they would not buy at whatever price.
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July 16, 2011, 09:39:16 PM
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Well you as the seller define the price.
No. The price is where a willing buyer and a willing seller meet.

As with eBay, you can post a high starting bid, then sit there and watch your item get zero bids. That's not a price.
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July 16, 2011, 09:51:45 PM
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price != value
aq
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July 16, 2011, 10:11:09 PM
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Well you as the seller define the price.
No. The price is where a willing buyer and a willing seller meet.

As with eBay, you can post a high starting bid, then sit there and watch your item get zero bids. That's not a price.

1) people new to bitcoin dont by 50 bitcoins, they buy bitcoins for $1000, at whatever the bitcoin price is of now. I doubt that there will be a price where no one want to buy a bitcoin anymore.
2) whenever there is a rally, people buy at an ever increasing price. And apparently no one is too high. Haven't observed this on ebay til now. And keep in mind that those rallies are usually stopped by some sellers that want to cash out.
So I think, speaking about bitcoins, the seller define the price, at least to a very large degree. I agree that this is different on ebay.

There are millions of bitcoins out there, there is no shortage. If everyone would still sell below $1, as it has been the case just some 3 month ago, the price would still be below $1. But looking at some charts http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg360zigDailyzvzcvzlztgMzm1g10zm2g25 one can see that the higher price brought a lot more trading volume. So it seems that with bitcoins it is contrary than on ebay. A higher price seems to attract more buyers.
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July 16, 2011, 10:15:30 PM
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price != value

As long as every merchant out there just takes the latest Mt.Gox price to compute a BTC price, price and value are more or less equal.
Jack of Diamonds
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July 16, 2011, 10:29:56 PM
 #18

Well you as the seller define the price.
No. The price is where a willing buyer and a willing seller meet.

As with eBay, you can post a high starting bid, then sit there and watch your item get zero bids. That's not a price.

If it's a rare or useful/limited commodity and all sellers & producers agree to sell it only at that high starting bid, then people will have to pay that price or live without the commodity.
Only someone betraying the agreement like the defecting prisoner in game theory can bring the price down.

Also known as a cartel, illegal in some countries but they happen all the time.

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istar
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July 17, 2011, 08:09:26 AM
 #19

As I said earlier, Mtgox does not have any Euro deposits this week! This will bring down the amount of cash this, and into next week. Bringing down the price!
So its a good to to buy now, and a bad time to sell.


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July 17, 2011, 09:07:56 AM
 #20

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and when it hits $17 even more BTC will be for sale......


Not necessarily. Some will but most won't. Most people with coin wait and don't sell easy, and they are the ones with real numbers of coin and are the major players. They will wait for a high. This is a powerful control for demand/supply and once a peak is reached selling begins. As some see falling values, it will be fresh in everyone's minds and especially those holding coin that bitcoin recently kicked ass and made a lot of people a lot of money. This creates another buy rush as they seek to capitalize again and demand will rise again, causing another lower peak. Then it will sell off and reach a trough.

This will then repeat again, as bitcoin has shown a few times now.

Bitcoin is sweet.

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