Well, it depends a lot on the market condition. Now we have really bearish market, price of the ICOs are usually fixed, so in my opinion now is better time to invest in some coins with good team, realistic roadmap and low marketcap, because when the market comes to normal values and gets bullish, you will have nice 2-3x profit and still a good coin in your wallet.
Simply said: ICO is more risky with more possible reward. But on bearish market I prefer actual coins.
This is good analysis. You are right that ico is risky since we do not know if they will really deliver, but you have to consider that there are risk also in launched coins since we really never know if we can get what we are expecting with the value they say they have. The good thing in launched coins is that you have your coin with you as compared to ico wherein they could be a fraud and just runaway with your money.