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Joe200 (OP)
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September 09, 2013, 01:12:56 PM
Last edit: May 15, 2014, 03:52:45 PM by Joe200 |
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UPDATE: new version here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=610189.0Here is a list of all previous price drops of 15 percent or more. Peak, trough, number of days from peak to tough, and percent price drop. 1 2010-07-19 0.09 2010-07-24 0.05 5 44.4
2 2010-11-07 0.36 2010-12-10 0.19 33 47.2
3 2011-01-16 0.39 2011-01-19 0.31 3 20.5
4 2011-02-14 1.06 2011-04-05 0.67 50 36.8
5 2011-05-14 7.86 2011-05-21 5.97 7 24.0
6 2011-06-09 29.58 2011-11-18 2.14 156 92.8
7 2012-01-08 7.05 2012-02-16 4.19 39 40.6
8 2012-08-17 13.26 2012-08-19 9.09 2 31.4
9 2013-04-09 214.67 2013-04-16 65.33 7 69.6
The longest crash lasted 156 days. It has now been 153 days since the April 9 peak. Typically, though, crashes are over very quickly. The median is only 7 days. The mean is 33.6 days. |
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pikeadz
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September 09, 2013, 02:08:19 PM |
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This is all meaningless. Every crash is different. They are caused by different forces and recovery is predicated on different forces too. This is garbage.
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grovestr
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Activity: 45
Merit: 0
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September 09, 2013, 02:30:53 PM |
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This is all meaningless. Every crash is different. They are caused by different forces and recovery is predicated on different forces too. This is garbage.
I think so too. +1 |
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davidgdg
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September 09, 2013, 06:33:52 PM |
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This is all meaningless. Every crash is different. They are caused by different forces and recovery is predicated on different forces too. This is garbage.
Actually I find it quite interesting. |
"There is only one thing that is seriously morally wrong with the world, and that is politics. By 'politics' I mean all that, and only what, involves the State." Jan Lester "Escape from Leviathan"
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jeffhuys
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September 09, 2013, 06:37:44 PM |
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It's always nice to see that people keep track of these statistics. It could mean everything (or nothing). At least it supplies information for those that need it.
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RationalSpeculator
Sr. Member
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Activity: 294
Merit: 250
This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
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September 09, 2013, 07:40:29 PM |
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Here is a list of all previous price drops of 15 percent or more. Peak, trough, number of days from peak to tough, and percent price drop. 1 2010-07-19 0.09 2010-07-24 0.05 5 44.4
2 2010-11-07 0.36 2010-12-10 0.19 33 47.2
3 2011-01-16 0.39 2011-01-19 0.31 3 20.5
4 2011-02-14 1.06 2011-04-05 0.67 50 36.8
5 2011-05-14 7.86 2011-05-21 5.97 7 24.0
6 2011-06-09 29.58 2011-11-18 2.14 156 92.8
7 2012-01-08 7.05 2012-02-16 4.19 39 40.6
8 2012-08-17 13.26 2012-08-19 9.09 2 31.4
9 2013-04-09 214.67 2013-04-16 65.33 7 69.6
The longest crash lasted 156 days. It has now been 153 days since the April 9 peak. Typically, though, crashes are over very quickly. The median is only 7 days. The mean is 33.6 days. Great research. The big difference between 2011 and 2013 is that the parabolic rise took 3 months now instead of 2 months in 2011. Hence why I think the correction will also take longer. If like 2011 the correction would be also 2.5 longer than the parabolic rise that would be 225 days or 7.5 months after April 9th peak = end November. |
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nobbynobbynoob
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September 09, 2013, 07:49:29 PM |
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The big difference between 2011 and 2013 is that the parabolic rise took 3 months now instead of 2 months in 2011. Hence why I think the correction will also take longer.
The rise was a lot more parabolic in 2011: that was a bigger bubble with greater volatility. When that bubble popped, the bearish trend became apparent fairly quickly and the price fell by about 92+% peak to trough. I don't see the same happening this time (unless Bitcoin fails altogether). |
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RationalSpeculator
Sr. Member
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Activity: 294
Merit: 250
This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
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September 09, 2013, 09:01:52 PM |
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The big difference between 2011 and 2013 is that the parabolic rise took 3 months now instead of 2 months in 2011. Hence why I think the correction will also take longer.
The rise was a lot more parabolic in 2011: that was a bigger bubble with greater volatility. When that bubble popped, the bearish trend became apparent fairly quickly and the price fell by about 92+% peak to trough. I don't see the same happening this time (unless Bitcoin fails altogether). Duration does not equal depth. |
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nobbynobbynoob
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September 09, 2013, 10:10:15 PM |
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Duration does not equal depth.
Quite so. |
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notme
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September 10, 2013, 03:10:14 AM |
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The big difference between 2011 and 2013 is that the parabolic rise took 3 months now instead of 2 months in 2011. Hence why I think the correction will also take longer.
The rise was a lot more parabolic in 2011: that was a bigger bubble with greater volatility. When that bubble popped, the bearish trend became apparent fairly quickly and the price fell by about 92+% peak to trough. I don't see the same happening this time (unless Bitcoin fails altogether). Duration does not equal depth. That's what she said. |
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byronbb
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Activity: 1414
Merit: 1000
HODL OR DIE
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September 10, 2013, 03:16:28 AM |
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The big difference between 2011 and 2013 is that the parabolic rise took 3 months now instead of 2 months in 2011. Hence why I think the correction will also take longer.
The rise was a lot more parabolic in 2011: that was a bigger bubble with greater volatility. When that bubble popped, the bearish trend became apparent fairly quickly and the price fell by about 92+% peak to trough. I don't see the same happening this time (unless Bitcoin fails altogether). Duration does not equal depth. That's what she said. A+ |
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chriswilmer
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Activity: 1008
Merit: 1000
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March 20, 2014, 04:30:27 AM |
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Hmm... how long has it been? Anybody keeping track?
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RyNinDaCleM
Legendary
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Activity: 2408
Merit: 1009
Legen -wait for it- dary
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March 20, 2014, 04:39:31 AM |
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Hmm... how long has it been? Anybody keeping track?
Look at a chart! It's all there But it's been 94 days since the ATH |
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Bitcoin BEAR
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March 20, 2014, 04:42:29 AM |
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The big difference between 2011 and 2013 is that the parabolic rise took 3 months now instead of 2 months in 2011. Hence why I think the correction will also take longer.
The rise was a lot more parabolic in 2011: that was a bigger bubble with greater volatility. When that bubble popped, the bearish trend became apparent fairly quickly and the price fell by about 92+% peak to trough. I don't see the same happening this time (unless Bitcoin fails altogether). I don't get why it must be binary. Why can't there be a deep correction without complete failure? |
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