Lets see if you can read a simple graph.

[ElectricMucus]

 

[1714921902]

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[1714921902]

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[1714921902]

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[r3wt]

who gives a fuck really. all that really matters is this: either the price will have to increase for mining to remain profitable, or hardware companies will have to drastically reduce their prices, else bitcoin will crash again. DAT LOGIC SON

[seldon]

else bitcoin will crash again. DAT LOGIC SON

People stopping to buy mining rigs and buying btc directly will cause it to crash??

[r3wt]

else bitcoin will crash again. DAT LOGIC SON

People stopping to buy mining rigs and buying btc directly will cause it to crash??

reading comprehension

[600watt]

easy: fiat is in capitulation phase.

[Miz4r]

We're still in the taking off phase if you look at the bigger picture. But there are always fractal patterns visible if you zoom in so you have various patterns within bigger patterns that look similar. But I don't think we'll see capitulation within this smaller time frame though, it will go up and down for a while but the time when bitcoins could be bought below $40-50 are over imo. Too many new people have come in, and too many old people are out who sold somewhere between $15 and $100 and are still in denial waiting for capitulation. We will see THEM capitulate and panic buy back in as we let go of the bubble anxiety and the price starts to rise above $170.

[Birdy]

It cannot be Return to normal as the graph would end up in negative value ^^
Also I don't think we saw Institutional Investors yet.

[thezerg]

This stock bubble went from 50 to 200 in 1+ years.  Let's see if you can scroll it forward in time:

https://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1241208000000&chddm=282203&chls=IntervalBasedLine&q=NASDAQ:AAPL&ntsp=0&ei=FSAvUqiYOZiWlwPILA



Seriously,  plenty of growth looks like a bubble when you are in it.  And there are key differences between your canonical bubble and bitcoin's last year.  For example, dropping to 20% of the ATH twice,  while the bubble graph is showing maybe just a 20% retracement before "return to normal".  Second, the return to normal happens much sooner relative to the duration of the run-up.  And we DID return... a week or so after the fall.

[NUFCrichard]

I see everything from take off to fear, but then instead of following the plan to capitulation, it moved back up again!
I assume you are saying that this move up is the "return to normal" (i.e. lets forget about the last 2 rises because it doesn't fit my chart), if so we are in for quite a fall!

I don't really believe in technical analysis too much, it seems excellent for looking back at what has happened, but a poor predictor of what will happen.

[HeliKopterBen]

The 2011 and 2013 crashes were part of the "takeoff" fractal.  The "first selloff" and "bear trap" are coming but from much higher levels.

[CoinDiver]

[balanghai]

Great illustration there!

[phelix]

It cannot be Return to normal as the graph would end up in negative value ^^
Also I don't think we saw Institutional Investors yet.

Also we are still waiting for the "Public".

[rampantparanoia]

if gox hits $150 again, I'll definitely think "return to normal" - so that has my vote.
At the moment, its a bull trap.

[RationalSpeculator]

We're still in the taking off phase if you look at the bigger picture. But there are always fractal patterns visible if you zoom in so you have various patterns within bigger patterns that look similar. But I don't think we'll see capitulation within this smaller time frame though, it will go up and down for a while but the time when bitcoins could be bought below $40-50 are over imo. Too many new people have come in, and too many old people are out who sold somewhere between $15 and $100 and are still in denial waiting for capitulation. We will see THEM capitulate and panic buy back in as we let go of the bubble anxiety and the price starts to rise above $170.

Funny post EM

I think Miz has it right here.

This means, it will likely go down*, but indeed not below $40, and in the grand scheme of things we are still at early adopter phase so the big bubble where institutional investors and later the mass market participates will push it to much higher prices but only in a few years.

*At least I hope it will go down or I'm *** EM same situation?  

[balanghai]

Graph says, "I sold under $6 and need to rationalize."

Hahaha I think so too!

[Gabi]

Omg we are in a bubble, buy buy buy, no sell sell sell

[David Rabahy]

*If* Bitcoin is a keeper technology for the human race then buy and never sell.

[Peter Lambert]

Look at it on a log scale, and you will see a very different picture. Also, remember that the rate of inflation halved last November. So the rise from January to April this year and the subsequent plateau closely resembles the rises from May to July 2012, and November 2011 to January 2012, and also the rise from April to June 2011 except that one had a steeper (downward sloping) plateau because of the higher rate of inflation.

In conclusion, therefore, we are not resembling the OP chart at all.

[johnyj]

For bitcoin the chart will always point upwards, due to limited supply of bitcoin and unlimited supply of fiat money, this chart is irrelevant