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Author Topic: Bitcoin has gone over $0.40 on mtgox  (Read 3776 times)
sturle
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January 22, 2011, 03:22:45 PM
 #21

It all reaches a natural equilibrium to relate its true price. But the worries are if the price is based on speculation or actual value at that time. Speculators will be the doom of BitCoin.
What is the difference between actual value and price based on speculation?  Price is what people want to pay for bitcoins.  No more, no less.  Define your "true price" or "actual value".

Sjå http://bitmynt.no for veksling av bitcoin mot norske kroner.  Trygt, billig, raskt og enkelt sidan 2010.
I buy with EUR and other currencies at a fair market price when you want to sell.  See http://bitmynt.no/eurprice.pl
I support the roadmap.  If a majority of miners ever try to forcefully take control of Bitcoin through a hard fork without 100% consensus, I will immediately split out and dump all my forkcoins, and buy more real Bitcoin.
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nofuture
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January 22, 2011, 03:39:27 PM
 #22

Speculators will be the doom of BitCoin.

No, they won't.
http://mises.org/daily/4466

Speculation is healthy at current levels and a natural part of the process.   
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January 22, 2011, 03:47:05 PM
 #23

This is true.

Ultimately the value of anything is whether people perceive value in it, that is all. I only worry of "crashes" that may happen in the future. Where everyone will buy BitCoins hoping they will increase in value, I don't think thats a good thing to base its value on. To buy something comparing it to what you think the future value is. But if you believe one BitCoin can buy you 50 cents worth of goods and services, this is "good" in my opinion.

Otherwise when the price gets too high, the speculators who bought the BitCoins will sell it and then we find it tumbling down, and unless there are enough Goods and Services to go around to protect the value it will crumble.

For example. I can set up a market for each of the hairs of my head. And if somehow there is madness and people buy it, not because they wanna own my hair but believe it will increase in value. Then when the bubble bursts it will go back to its original value, which is 0, (unless there is a cult that believes that owning my hair will allow them to perform Magic)

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FreeMoney
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January 22, 2011, 10:40:44 PM
 #24

This is true.

Ultimately the value of anything is whether people perceive value in it, that is all. I only worry of "crashes" that may happen in the future. Where everyone will buy BitCoins hoping they will increase in value, I don't think thats a good thing to base its value on. To buy something comparing it to what you think the future value is. But if you believe one BitCoin can buy you 50 cents worth of goods and services, this is "good" in my opinion.

Otherwise when the price gets too high, the speculators who bought the BitCoins will sell it and then we find it tumbling down, and unless there are enough Goods and Services to go around to protect the value it will crumble.

For example. I can set up a market for each of the hairs of my head. And if somehow there is madness and people buy it, not because they wanna own my hair but believe it will increase in value. Then when the bubble bursts it will go back to its original value, which is 0, (unless there is a cult that believes that owning my hair will allow them to perform Magic)

So if I think it can buy me 50 cents worth of goods tomorrow this is "good", but if I think it'll buy me 60 cents worth of goods in a year then what? "bad" idea? I don't think so.

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January 23, 2011, 02:36:31 AM
 #25

The assumption of "tomorrow's" prices is actually "today's" price. But people are hoping that in a year's time the price is NOT what it is today.

Woe unto the speculators.

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kiba
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January 23, 2011, 03:07:44 AM
 #26

The assumption of "tomorrow's" prices is actually "today's" price. But people are hoping that in a year's time the price is NOT what it is today.

Woe unto the speculators.

You seem to think it will not be backed up by goods and services but we don't actually know how to figure out how much goods and services to sustain a price.

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January 23, 2011, 03:14:10 AM
 #27

The assumption of "tomorrow's" prices is actually "today's" price. But people are hoping that in a year's time the price is NOT what it is today.

Woe unto the speculators.

You seem to think it will not be backed up by goods and services but we don't actually know how to figure out how much goods and services to sustain a price.

Actually you are right. If by the time the bubble bursts and we have sufficient goods and services that can be purchased with BitCoin, then the price cannot fall beyond a certain threshold.I suppose it will only go down to zero if everyone loses faith in it, but that would be true for any currency.

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kiba
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January 23, 2011, 03:19:39 AM
 #28


Actually you are right. If by the time the bubble bursts and we have sufficient goods and services that can be purchased with BitCoin

So, what is this number for this "suffcient goods and services"? The only way we find out is through the market process.

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January 23, 2011, 03:27:19 AM
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Actually you are right. If by the time the bubble bursts and we have sufficient goods and services that can be purchased with BitCoin

So, what is this number for this "suffcient goods and services"? The only way we find out is through the market process.

It looks like it, indeed.

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ShadowOfHarbringer
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January 23, 2011, 05:56:10 PM
 #30

Because Bitcoin, contrary to other currencies is deflationary, people will choose it for saving money rather than buying stuff.
So it is somewhat normal that there are mostly exchange services. Who would want to spend a currency which is doomed to rise in the long term ?

I think however that goods trade services are coming to spring up soon.


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January 23, 2011, 09:54:05 PM
 #31

Who would want to spend a currency which is doomed to rise in the long term ?

Who would want to sell stuff for a currency which is likely to rise in the long term? Oh yeah, everyone. So the two sides to this equation work in opposite directions. The rational buyer would offer less than the USD equivalent price, and the rational seller would be happy to sell for less than the USD equivalent price (in order to gain the coins).

In my opinion the growth of trade in goods is slowed by "ordinary" concerns such as the difficulty of buying bitcoins with a credit card, or the early development stage of escrow and arbitration services, rather than by considerations of inflation and deflation.
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January 23, 2011, 11:06:29 PM
 #32

Because Bitcoin, contrary to other currencies is deflationary, people will choose it for saving money rather than buying stuff.
So it is somewhat normal that there are mostly exchange services. Who would want to spend a currency which is doomed to rise in the long term ?

I think however that goods trade services are coming to spring up soon.



Yup. The more valuable bitcoins become, the more reason there is to offer goods and services for them.  The more goods and services offered for bitcoins, the more valuable bitcoins are.  This is the "deflationary spiral" some people freak out about...Absolutely hilarious!
kiba
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January 25, 2011, 05:35:00 PM
 #33

On a different note (but still somewhat related), what Bitcoin truly needs is an service that everyone would and will use. What I mean is basically this:  Let's say for example the guy who was going to set up a point-and-click/survey site that pays Bitcoins actually did get this up and running. The hope is that people who can't afford to mine (like myself) or others who just wish for a (somewhat) steady flow of a few Bitcoins use this. The dream would be if nearly every Bitcoiner used this service (or some other large and multi-person-ran service). In my opinion, Bitcoin would have a far easier time reaching parity with the USD if there were a FEW (not just one or 2) large, central services that gave people a small income of Bitcoins. This would help in 3 main ways:

1.) For people who don't have the time or skill to set up their own Bitcoin-earning service/product, these multi-person-ran businesses would help them earn a small yet fairly steady income of Bitcoins to trade on the market. This option would especially appeal to teens, who can't afford a high-end mining rig, or because they are students, they don't have the time for their own Bitcoin business.

2.) Besides helping out people who don't have the time nor money to mine or set up a Bitcoin business, "wealthy" Bitcoiners and the ones who DO mine/have Bitcoin services will earn a few extra Bitcoins from this, as well. This, again, will add value to Bitcoins, as more are earned and then traded. However, this would only add significant value to them if this "central earning service" was large enough that it catered to most all Bitcoiners, and if there were more than just a couple of these services.

First of all, you talk too much.

Here's a hint: www.operationfabulous.com. Anybody can set up a blog, an advertisement space, and start blogging.

Quote
3.) Besides allowing the users of these services to earn a few Bitcoins, the owners and employees of them would have a nice, fat fistful of golden Bitcoins that are constantly at their bidding. What we do NOT want is one or more of these services being ran by one, single person, as that person would, if their service was executed successfully, become unbelievably rich in Bitcoins. They may not immediately gain wealth, but over time, they would see an increasingly large cashflow circulating through their accounts. What we do want, instead of the "Bill Gates or Richard Branson of Bitcoins", is a business ran by several people, so the wealth could be shared, and we wouldn't have one main person making all of the market trades. Having several, semi-rich Bitcoiners would not shift the market, and make a few people making most of the trades, but instead would allow these people to largely influence the price of Bitcoins on the market. As opposed to CONTROLLING the price, influencing it would not let the price jump so randomly and be so unpredictable most of the time.

Well, that's all I have to say! Please tell me any comments you have on what I said, as I am interested in others' opinions on this subject.

If a bitcoiner provide such a valuable service, what's wrong with him becoming incredibly wealthy?

ribuck
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January 25, 2011, 05:43:12 PM
 #34

What we do NOT want is one or more of these services being ran by one, single person, as that person would, if their service was executed successfully, become unbelievably rich in Bitcoins

Why don't YOU be that person, then when you become rich you can give away your coins to "people who don't have the time or skill to set up their own Bitcoin-earning service/product".
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January 25, 2011, 07:18:10 PM
 #35

What we do NOT want is one or more of these services being ran by one, single person, as that person would, if their service was executed successfully, become unbelievably rich in Bitcoins

Why don't YOU be that person, then when you become rich you can give away your coins to "people who don't have the time or skill to set up their own Bitcoin-earning service/product".

I think we need a mechanism where we can use resources of those who have so much they don't need all of them and then we can use them to assist those who have not had the good fortune of having their own mining machine.

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January 25, 2011, 10:53:32 PM
 #36

What we do NOT want is one or more of these services being ran by one, single person, as that person would, if their service was executed successfully, become unbelievably rich in Bitcoins

Why don't YOU be that person, then when you become rich you can give away your coins to "people who don't have the time or skill to set up their own Bitcoin-earning service/product".

I think we need a mechanism where we can use resources of those who have so much they don't need all of them and then we can use them to assist those who have not had the good fortune of having their own mining machine.

Statist begone.  I'm kidding.  Sort of.  What do you propose?  Are there people who aren't actually using their resources and who would be willing to part with them?  It seems like most people who go to the effort and expense of getting large and efficient mining setups use them to refund their expenses and make some profits.  As they should.

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January 26, 2011, 08:54:04 AM
 #37

Who would want to spend a currency which is doomed to rise in the long term ?

Who would want to sell stuff for a currency which is likely to rise in the long term? Oh yeah, everyone. So the two sides to this equation work in opposite directions.

Right, i didn't think this through.

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January 27, 2011, 06:32:00 PM
 #38

Honestly, I would not want to be rich in anything, including Bitcoins. And that's the truth.
If I could count on having reasonable health in my old age, I would not want to be rich in anything.

But it would be nice to have some savings to use for health care in my old age if necessary.
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