Conspiracy and Stuff: Bitcoin Mining viability by the end of this year

[Hugo9191]

Hello guys,

I want to invest in a rig, about 1.3k$, but a friend talked to me and told me that a big batch of BFL machines would go in December. More miners, more difficulty, less bitcoins for us all.

If you could get a 25 GH/s for the price above in late October/early November, would you do it?

I need opinions and help, we cannot do this kind of investments everyday :s

Thanks,

Hugo

(PS: I'm sorry if this isn't the correct forum. Please move it if you want)

[solex]

Study the page linked, modifying the Market & Hardware Parameters until you understand the results, then spend your money.

http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/

[Hugo9191]

Study the page linked, modifying the Market & Hardware Parameters until you understand the results, then spend your money.

http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/

http://screencloud.net//img/screenshots/eebf7f0d4a8b0494eb8994ebfe571eb3.png

Shit, right?

[solex]

Probably, but not definitely.
genesisblock assumes the hash rate will continue to grow at the rate seen recently. Instead it will slow down eventually, and maybe even level off a bit, similar to what happened when graphics cards were pressed into service. At the present time though it does not look promising for ROI on most of the current ASICs.

[solex]

Where did you get the 76% monthly difficulty increase?  

The 76% is a default derived from the recent trend in difficulty changes. If you think that this is too high then you can manually enter a lower number and make any hardware look profitable.

Ideally, there should be a second variable which is a monthly difficulty increase decay rate, but whether guessing two numbers helps is anyone's guess  

[not.you]

Yeah I just went and checked it out.  It also assumes bitcoin price doesn't change which is probably not accurate.  But as for the premise, I agree, mining is not looking good for the little guy.

[agath]

I want to invest in a rig, about 1.3k$, but a friend talked to me and told me that a big batch of BFL machines would go in December. More miners, more difficulty, less bitcoins for us all.

I think that they will be all batches from BFL competitors (Asicminer, Bitfury, ....), because BFL will not deliver, as they are used to do.

However if you believe that bitcoin's value will increase, it's always worth to mine.

The only advice I can give you is: do not buy from BFL.

[Bitweasil]

However if you believe that bitcoin's value will increase, it's always worth to mine.

It's also typically much /more/ worth it to just buy bitcoin at the current value if you think it's going to go up...

If you buy a device for 1.0 btc that returns 0.7 btc, even if bitcoin goes up, you'd still have been better off buying 1.0 bitcoin and holding it.

[Dalkore]

Probably, but not definitely.
genesisblock assumes the hash rate will continue to grow at the rate seen recently. Instead it will slow down eventually, and maybe even level off a bit, similar to what happened when graphics cards were pressed into service. At the present time though it does not look promising for ROI on most of the current ASICs.

I don't see it leveling off until Jan 2013 or Feb 2014.  That will give all the ASICs to ship and clear their backlogs. 

[BorisAlt]

Every time I think hashrate will level, it jumps. Sigh. Yeah.

From reading the news from some reputable sources as posted through the link above, the jumping trend will continue for the forseable future. 3 peta hashes prolly this winter if not late fall. Scary, eh?