If USB Block Erupters are not worth the trouble, what is?

[kano]

That calculator has saved me from spending so much money.  Numbers always comes out in red! 

Getting back to the statement by ckolivas :  “Highest risk + Highest potential gain<---> Lowest risk + Guaranteed loss”

I used the calculator at http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/ to see what the various hardware would produce.  I was surprised to note that even the fastest, and most expensive, unit advertised (the Virtual Mining Platinum Unit, 6 module + 6 cases) at 24,576 GHs will only be running at a profit for 8 months.  After that, the electricity costs take all of the efforts.  Note:  I don’t have a clue how accurate the calculator is, YMMV.  If the calculator is close to accurate, the days of mining for a profit are almost over. 

I keep reading about all of the PHs coming onboard and have to wonder how long it will be before I see used 500 GHs units for sale cheap.

/Frank   

I preferred my more simple standard pool calculator that I added so you could choose a diff % per change and a number of days and it would work out the BTC return at that number of days assuming that % each diff ...

Unfortunately I only have my local copy available at home coz ... my internet server it was on got ddosed ... and that server had nothing else on it that would promote being ddosed ... so that was weird.

One thing it was helpful with was seeing, by playing with the "Generated BTC after days" value, was that indeed there is a return lifetime on ASIC hardware at the moment ... the return does asymptotically approach zero ... and quite quickly.

[OldGeek]

...One thing it was helpful with was seeing, by playing with the "Generated BTC after days" value, was that indeed there is a return lifetime on ASIC hardware at the moment ... the return does asymptotically approach zero ... and quite quickly.

Does your calculator factor in the increased difficulty?  I'm curious because the more I read about the horrors of increased difficulty the more confused I get.  If it was only difficulty that we had to worry about, there shouldn't be too much worry.

It seems that the increase in hashing power is the killer here.  I mean if the hashing power remained the same after a difficulty increase then an individual would have the same share of hashing as before the increase.  Hence, forgetting about the luck factor here, the same relative income from mining.  Maybe I just don't get it.

/Frank

[EzCheese]

It's a mixture of them all.  The higher hashing power, the faster blocks will solved and every 2016 blocks the difficulty increases. 

...One thing it was helpful with was seeing, by playing with the "Generated BTC after days" value, was that indeed there is a return lifetime on ASIC hardware at the moment ... the return does asymptotically approach zero ... and quite quickly.

Does your calculator factor in the increased difficulty?  I'm curious because the more I read about the horrors of increased difficulty the more confused I get.  If it was only difficulty that we had to worry about, there shouldn't be too much worry.

It seems that the increase in hashing power is the killer here.  I mean if the hashing power remained the same after a difficulty increase then an individual would have the same share of hashing as before the increase.  Hence, forgetting about the luck factor here, the same relative income from mining.  Maybe I just don't get it.

/Frank

[Professor James Moriarty]

 Is there a reliable source where we can check the profitability of usb block erupters?

 Or better yet , is there any place we can check the profitability of anything a 'trustworthy' place , because wherever I check , usb block erupters looks like a steal for 0.2 but everyone thinks they are not

[Puppet]

I keep reading about all of the PHs coming onboard and have to wonder how long it will be before I see used 500 GHs units for sale cheap.

It will take just as long for brand new 500GH units to sell for a similar price (and even cheaper in preorder).
Those 28nm asics cost somewhere in the neighborhood of $25-$35 to produce. They will sell for whatever price miners are willing to pay at a given time, and that price will go down as fast as difficulty will go up.

Im not sure what you define as cheap, but 500GH for a a few hunderd dollar will happen before next summer unless almost all those asic vendors screw up big time. And at that price, it still wont give you a positive RIO.

[cdogster]

 Is there a reliable source where we can check the profitability of usb block erupters?

 Or better yet , is there any place we can check the profitability of anything a 'trustworthy' place , because wherever I check , usb block erupters looks like a steal for 0.2 but everyone thinks they are not

Here you go: http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/

[Professor James Moriarty]

 If we look at that site , almost everything makes no ROI ?

[Bitweasil]

 If we look at that site , almost everything makes no ROI ?

ASICs are priced according to their utility in mining bitcoin.  As such, it is reasonable to expect them to be priced slightly higher than their lifetime returns.

[cdogster]

 If we look at that site , almost everything makes no ROI ?

That is correct, unfortunately.

[sf2]

 

[lbeckm3]

thegenesisblock has a great calculator for all of those questions regarding mining and profitability;

Block Erupter sample;

http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/ad316a9479

Basically you make back a total of about 13 bucks and then you're at zero...  Very sad...  Mainly because I just got one going yesterday with another coming in tomorrow.  Ahh well...

Good luck!

[Gatekeeper]

we've raced along from the 130nm or 110nm asic up to the 28nm and is it the case that 28nm could be the standard for a while and we settle down a bit because of the cost involved making better than 28nm chips? Are we slowly reaching the point where we will be able to buy 28nm machines off the shelf knowing they'll actually be good for a while, without next generation chips coming out every couple of months?

What puts me off buying is that even with Bitfury's 55nm machines i know the 28nms will be out soon so there seems no point pre-ordering 55nm when you know a better chip is already about to come out, which has been the case for a while now since coming down from the 100+ chips. By December/January will we finally have a more settled industry where we can buy off the shelf and not worry about new generations coming out every month or two?

I'd like to be able to put all my coins into mining, the January pre orders with cointerra seem tempting with 2th/s for $6k, but again i feel like i should wait my time until we can buy "off the shelf" and know exactly what stats we're looking at

[SPC_Bitcoin]

I'm curious, is there any calculator comparing the cost/benefit of just buying bitcoins vs mining equipment? the bitcoin has appreciated greatly in just the last year, would it be better to just buy into bitcoins and let them appreciate, maybe spend a few as needed?

[lbeckm3]

What puts me off buying is that even with Bitfury's 55nm machines i know the 28nms will be out soon so there seems no point pre-ordering 55nm when you know a better chip is already about to come out, which has been the case for a while now since coming down from the 100+ chips. By December/January will we finally have a more settled industry where we can buy off the shelf and not worry about new generations coming out every month or two?

I've been lurking and watching this for a while and here is typically what happens;

1.  Pre-order for NEWSUPERMINER-X begins and some jump on right away.  Others wait to see if they ship etc.
2.  The early pre-order folks get their units (after delays - there are ALWAYS delays) and do make some profit.  The rest wait not so patiently and get frustrated with margins dropping daily due to difficulty increases.
3.  Before the pre-orders are even finished shipping and stock is built up for general orders - go back to step 1 with NEWSUPERMINER-Y.

So, there really is no good way to get in the game with "off-the-shelf" and "shipping" hardware, if you want to mine with the new stuff you almost ALWAYS have to go to step 2, which, in my mind, is extremely risky.  Now as you mentioned it may be best to wait for the 28nm stuff and have bitcoin mining hardware "catch-up" with where the chip industry is at this point with the smallest fab size possible, but again who knows what will be out there at that point - 15nm, smaller...

Seriously consider putting in your info into the calculator at http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/ and adjust the "initial mining date" for when you think you will get hardware in hand.  Watch the magic as all hope of ROI vanishes before your eyes.  Again, if you're the first kid on the block with the latest tech - you make money, if not, you don't.

As always your mileage may vary, I just hope you're careful with your money and expectations here.

[Gatekeeper]

As i understood it the cost of making the better chips gets more and more expensive, so we should reach a point where we slow right down in new designs coming out as no one will be stupid enough to pay what is needed to go the next step. I had the feeling that 28nm would be that current end point, but i don't know enough about it, i thought i saw someone post here that the next chip up from 28nm would be insanely expensive, so that gave me the idea that we might reach the point where stocking and shipping catches up to chip design and we end up with 28nm machines off the shelf.

[lbeckm3]

I'm curious, is there any calculator comparing the cost/benefit of just buying bitcoins vs mining equipment? the bitcoin has appreciated greatly in just the last year, would it be better to just buy into bitcoins and let them appreciate, maybe spend a few as needed?

I would agree with that assessment!  I think a lot of others are of similar mind when it comes to mining vs just buying coin and holding.  Use caution as always - you never know what the future may bring!

There are also many other ways to dabble in this stuff.  You could buy/sell stuff on bitmit and other sites.  You could even "day-trade" other crypto-currencies - making money off the "spread" between exchanges, or even intra-exchange on sites like mcxnow and such.  

Then again, I'm not giving out any legal/monetary advice here - do what you will!  I'm in it to play, and if I make some coin that's great, if not, I have my day job!  

Have fun!

[lbeckm3]

As i understood it the cost of making the better chips gets more and more expensive, so we should reach a point where we slow right down in new designs coming out as no one will be stupid enough to pay what is needed to go the next step. I had the feeling that 28nm would be that current end point, but i don't know enough about it, i thought i saw someone post here that the next chip up from 28nm would be insanely expensive, so that gave me the idea that we might reach the point where stocking and shipping catches up to chip design and we end up with 28nm machines off the shelf.

I'm sure it does get progressively more expensive the smaller you go.  With some big names getting into the game now, (that one guy from Samsung is now in it from what I'm reading), I think the seed capital is there for whatever needs to be done!  I do believe you've a similar mind to me, wait and see what shakes out - it may be just as you have predicted, things may slow down.  I have a funny feeling though, that when they DO slow down, there wont be much margin in it for us at that point!  To me, it seems the gpu mining days (the "wild west" days) are over.  We like to believe we can still play the game, buying some of the smaller asics coming out, however it is now big industry and big business.  You need a good chunk of capital up front, sight unseen, to be successful and that is at a very high risk ratio!

We are slowly getting to the point where bitcoin is "mature", and more traditional methods must be employed to make gains.  Buying/selling goods.  Day trading exchanges and other cryptocurrencies.  Things like that.

Mining bitcoin is essentially over, at least for me.  My two "asic" chips (block erupters) will be working and I'll probably just leave them alone and run until they die. 

[SPC_Bitcoin]

Thanks for your reply.

I only just started learning about bitcoin this past Friday. I'm enjoying the learning curve though!

What I gather is there's an arms-race for speed of hashing, cost of hashing, return of investment, risk of sinking money into an often unproven technology, and the increasing difficulty of solving a block. fun to watch!

[Gatekeeper]

yeah it certainly seems tough to decide what to do, a classic example i guess is cointerra selling two exact same machines, one December at $14k or have it in January for $6k. Right now i wouldn't buy a 400gh/s bitfury 55nm , i think i'd wait for a 2 th/s January cointerra 28nm machine, but then again who the hell knows what will be happening in January lol.

It's like trying to chase something that you'll never catch, it always seems a step or two ahead of you, trying to play the pre order game certainly is tough when difficulty goes up 30% so often and you have to look at a month or two of wait time.

If i was to buy 32 th/s in January will it be anywhere near as good as it would be now? i hate to think what the difficulty will be in January 

[kano]

I'm curious, is there any calculator comparing the cost/benefit of just buying bitcoins vs mining equipment? the bitcoin has appreciated greatly in just the last year, would it be better to just buy into bitcoins and let them appreciate, maybe spend a few as needed?

However, there is a simpler way to see this.

A lot of hardware you can buy indeed WILL return less BTC than it costs to get it ... these USBs are a perfect example of that.

So it doesn't take a calculator to see that whatever happens to the BTC price, you will gain more (or lose less) by NOT buying that hardware and instead just buying BTC.