Bitcointalk stats update - Bubble over?

[dnaleor]

Here is the update of the bitcointalk stats versus bitcoin price (mtGox)

(These charts are "smoothed" for better reading, raw data link below each chart)


Raw data: http://anonymouse.org/cgi-bin/anon-www.cgi/http://anonymouse.org/cgi-bin/anon-www.cgi/http://anonymouse.org/cgi-bin/anon-www.cgi/http://img594.imageshack.us/img594/8748/6mda.png


Raw data: http://anonymouse.org/cgi-bin/anon-www.cgi/http://anonymouse.org/cgi-bin/anon-www.cgi/http://anonymouse.org/cgi-bin/anon-www.cgi/http://img109.imageshack.us/img109/6601/qj7o.png


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The number of new members and posts are stabilizing. I think we are hitting the new low. Try to compare with the previous bubble. When these numbers are stable, the price will go up again in the next months...
We saw the new low of the price at 60 USD.

I declare that the bubble is over

PS: if you find these charts usefull, consider a small donation

[prophetx]

interesting, perhaps someone can run a regression analysis on this

[dnaleor]

interesting, perhaps someone can run a regression analysis on this

I have the necessary software to do this. I'll give it a try

[RationalSpeculator]

Very interesting, thanks for sharing!

[dnaleor]

Very interesting, thanks for sharing!

no problem I like statistics

I try to do an update every 10 days (sometimes I don't have time for that)

Tomorrow I'll try to do regression analysis. Keep an eye on this topic for updates

[el_rlee]

Astonishing.
That's pretty anti-whale-pro-swarm theory, ha?

[dnaleor]

Astonishing.
That's pretty anti-whale-pro-swarm theory, ha?

indeed
I never believed in the whale theory.

Off course, it's a factor. But maybe whales are atracted by swarms

[dnaleor]

Chart will be updated again on the 21th of this month, but when I check the stats, I can already see that we are still stable.

I call (again) that >100 USD is a new stable platform for the bitcoin price. The bubble is over. We've entered the "Triple Digits Era"
possible a new move to 135-150 USD (bitstamp) is in the cards/charts in the next days

edit: the newchart will probably have some statistical analysis

[RationalSpeculator]

Chart will be updated again on the 21th of this month, but when I check the stats, I can already see that we are still stable.

I call (again) that >100 USD is a new stable platform for the bitcoin price. The bubble is over. We've entered the "Triple Digits Era"
possible a new move to 135-150 USD (bitstamp) is in the cards/charts in the next days

edit: the newchart will probably have some statistical analysis

Thanks for the heads up. Your charts are great but your interpretation seems biased to the bullish side.

Even if most indicators you track flatten out that does not indicate a rising price perse.

For example the first half year of 2012 also showed flat lines for most indicators but price did trend downwards in that period.


I would also like to point out that after the collapse in 2011 there was also a brief period in August 2011 where price went up again and all indicators also stopped falling for a month or so. However, the collapse of price and all other indicators continued thereafter for many months.

[dnaleor]

Chart will be updated again on the 21th of this month, but when I check the stats, I can already see that we are still stable.

I call (again) that >100 USD is a new stable platform for the bitcoin price. The bubble is over. We've entered the "Triple Digits Era"
possible a new move to 135-150 USD (bitstamp) is in the cards/charts in the next days

edit: the newchart will probably have some statistical analysis

Thanks for the heads up. Your charts are great but your interpretation seems biased to the bullish side.

Even if most indicators you track flatten out that does not indicate a rising price perse.

For example the first half year of 2012 also showed flat lines for most indicators but price did trend downwards in that period.


I would also like to point out that after the collapse in 2011 there was also a brief period in August 2011 where price went up again and all indicators also stopped falling for a month or so. However, the collapse of price and all other indicators continued thereafter for many months.

you are right... I know i'm a bull, but hey, we are in the speculation subforum

The charts are provided so everyone can make their own anaysis

[el_rlee]

Thanks. This thread does not get enough attention.

[rampantparanoia]

[dnaleor]

excuse me for the delayed update. I was really busy the last weeks...
However, I prepared my excel data file for easy regression analysis, so expect some new insight on the 1st of october!

I checked the data already, and we are still stable. I think this is really promising... The 100 USD mark could be the new 'normal'


edit: due to the fact that regression analysis takes some time, I will update these charts 2 times a month: on the first and on the 16th of each month

[smoothie]

excuse me for the delayed update. I was really busy the last weeks...
However, I prepared my excel data file for easy egression analysis, so expet some new insight on the 1st of october!

I checked the data already, and we are still stable. I think this is really promising... The 100 USD mark could be the new 'normal'


edit: due to the fact that regression analysis takes some time, I will update these charts 2 times a month: on the first and on the 16th of each month

Looking forward to the updates. Interesting information. Thanks! 

[el_rlee]

May I carefully ask of it would be significantly more work to also include bitstamp data?

[b!z]

Images are not loading, can you check if they are still working?

[SheHadMANHands]

OP, where does it say there must exist a consistent, linear relationship between the value of bitcoin and number of new members on a forum board?

[b!z]

OP, where does it say there must exist a consistent, linear relationship between the value of bitcoin and number of new members on a forum board?

It is not consistent, but usually new signups = new interest = more buyers.

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

I think the recent dropoff has more to do with discussion spilling over to reddit.com/r/Bitcoin and elsewhere off-site. Also, the speculation forum seems by far the most active, so it should be obvious that stable pricing will curtail activity, especially considering how stable the prices feel relative to the instability of the recent past.

[dnaleor]

Images are not loading, can you check if they are still working?

They are loading for me, maybe it's your internet connection? Don't know...