Bitcoin - Recovery or bull trap v.2018 ?

[elektrikdinar]

Is this the start of a recovery or a bull trap?

I bumped into a post like this from couple of years ago and thought maybe to revisit this vote again

[1714803530]

1714803530

[elektrikdinar]

original post from 2013:

Is this the start of a recovery or a bull trap?

I'd hope for the first but I'm still confused...

[HeRetiK]

original post from 2013:

Is this the start of a recovery or a bull trap?

I'd hope for the first but I'm still confused...

Boy I sure hope we'll reach a new ATH this year, similar to 2013.

I'm cautiously optimistic right now too, seeing how USD 8,000,- is holding up fairly well with USD 6,000,- looking like a double bottom. I guess February is going to be critical. If we break below USD 8,000,- again, I doubt that USD 6,000,- will hold and the downtrend might continue. If we manage to break above USD 10,000,- however, or at least stay above USD 8,000,- until the end of the month, I think that we might actually look at an uptrend again.

[cindygirl]

My guess is recovery, the timing doesn't seem to be right for a steady decline in the market. The crypto user base and its exposure have both grown tremendously in the last year, logically you would think 2018 would be a great year to build on that instead of to decline.

[STT]

Bumpy recovery but it always is, Bitcoin is famous for its volatility!     Its a high risk move and nothing big should really be expected until the end of Chinese New Year.    Quite similar to last year this time, we had some sell off but only a real move towards Feb end onwards.

[Tyrantt]

Bumpy recovery but it always is, Bitcoin is famous for its volatility!     Its a high risk move and nothing big should really be expected until the end of Chinese New Year.    Quite similar to last year this time, we had some sell off but only a real move towards Feb end onwards.

And the ending of the lunar new year is ending at 16th of february, as much as I know, tho I doubt that anything big will be happening until the mid of march. Also, someone posted about Yuan crashing here, don't know if this will have any impact on bitcoins price in the next couple of months, like a slight drop in price due to yuan weakening a little.

[Zentor]

Lol, nice bump. Chinese New Year will end at 16.02 so we should soon recover, a few bulls traps already behind

[uslfd]

I really think it's 50/50.
Depends on how fast US is going to raise interest rate too

[omonuyak]

Is this the start of a recovery or a bull trap?

I bumped into a post like this from couple of years ago and thought maybe to revisit this vote again

Bitcoin is at the recovering stage and I think a stable one!  We actually need this stability for the next push just as it happens last year. We should buy now in my own opinion and If we could not buy we should hold what we have in other not to be among the disappointed one in months to come.
some of us that were afraid to buy last year January and February thinking Bitcoin is going to clash below  $500 cloud see were Bitcoin is as at December 2017. Buying now is going to put you among the most opportune in 2018 as I believe the same pattern that happened last year is going to repeat itself again.

[exstasie]

Is this the start of a recovery or a bull trap?

Both, in a way. I believe the recovery has started and there's a very good chance the bottom is already in. But IMO the correction is not over.

My models for this correction are summer 2012 and spring 2013. In both cases, we saw a very bloody and deep crash, then a recovery to standard bull trap levels (62% fib). Then a higher low where bears failed to continue lower.

Y'all better hope this isn't 2014, though.

[tokeweed]

Def a bull trap, but I think we already have hit bottom guys.  So good news...  And a 'full recovery' of getting back all that value to ATH levels will take months imo.  Think of all those anxious people who are prolly wanting to drop their bags at every mini pump...  Only to buy back higher (most likely in FOMO mode) when BTC breaks out beyond 20K USD.  

[magneto]

Def a bull trap, but I think we already have hit bottom guys.  So good news...  And a 'full recovery' of getting back all that value to ATH levels will take months imo.  Think of all those anxious people who are prolly wanting to drop their bags at every mini pump...  Only to buy back higher (most likely in FOMO mode) when BTC breaks out beyond 20K USD. 

Agreed. I think that this current pump is probably not going to take us to $10k or more levels. We're probably just going to hang around $8k-9k for the time being and you're much better off trading for volatility and cycles right now.

But we've definitely bottomed out at around $6k and we ain't getting back there once again any time soon.

I would wait until price drops to around $7.5-8k and then buying a whole bunch because honestly that is going to be as cheap as they come at the moment. As you said, when FOMO is a factor again, and price goes up to $10k+, people will be buying back their sold coins at higher levels.

[imapessimist]

The price is certainly up now. I think it could even reach as high as 9k or even a bit more..  But will drop again back to 7k in the next few days.   I don't think it's now on a rise.  If I had to guess that is.

[HeRetiK]

[...] Think of all those anxious people who are prolly wanting to drop their bags at every mini pump...  Only to buy back higher (most likely in FOMO mode) when BTC breaks out beyond 20K USD.  

Assuming the bottom is indeed already in -- which I'm hopeful of, but not quite certain yet -- FOMO mode is likely just around the corner.

Assuming that the likes of Bitstamp and Kraken still need a couple of weeks to clear their backlog of fresh account verification, we'll likely have some new market participants soon enough that are just waiting for a good entry point. If Bitcoin continues its downward trend, these newcomers will likely try to time Bitcoin bottoming out. If we break upwards, however, buyers might once again get ahead of themselves but hopefully not too heavily.

[haroldtee]

Too early to start making any assumption now. It looks like things are looking different though, but still cannot ascertain anything until we really have a break out from this present formation. So far, the market has given us a head and shoulder formation on the 4hr chart, which most times it can be a form of a trend reversal signal which it also looks like the bulls are ready to take over the market with the volume few days ago. However, it is bitcoin, and just these few indications are not enough. We need more to know that yes, we are ready for another ride and some more volume too. I am optimistic though, that this year is going to be a lovely one.

[tomahawk9]

I believe we already hit bottom, so I'd say we're now entering the recovery phase. It seems like we only need a little push to begin the bull run, and to me the catalyst could be the SegWit adoption from Coinbase (in the next few weeks like they said) which I think is going to make a significant impact that'll start the upward trend making people enter FOMO mode like others have said.

[YuginKadoya]

I should say it is a recovery but having a resistance along the way is very normal and the fluctuation too is very normal for bitcoin, we are in the midst of recuperating but it is really a bumpy ride up ahead, And in my opinion we are getting the real bull run when all this resistance are gone and the panicking subsides, Whales certainly wants to buy cheaper bitcoin to they can earn a lot from it.

[Crytptohack]

The low for 2018 was on Feb 6th IMHO. If you look at a daily or 4hr chart from the Dec 2017 peak to the Feb 6th low, you will see the highest volume during the last sell off/buy V bottom.

BTC lows were produced in January for 2015, 16 and 17. This year it was in February (My speculation as we are not out of the downwards channel and BTC has not produced higher high and higher lows on the daily chart)

It' going to be a rough ride back up until something sparks the market or technically breaking out and over the downward trend channel, once a bull trend is set, it should make it's way back to the ATH. (Not sure if that will be this year or not)

[tokeweed]

Most people answered:  'Recovery, but a bumpy one.'

Hmmm...  I fear we're still in the 'stage of denial' and BTC could still go back down or needs to crash some more to reach the stage of capitulation (then despair).  Only til then will we see true recovery...

[socks435]

In my own guess is recovery but a bumpy one because what i seen from the current bitcoin chart the movement is increase a lot from past week ago when the price drop a lot middle of feb. 6 to feb. 7 which is $5780 its a huge drop and its affected by FUD.. but now its recovering and increasing slowly..
China still regulating cryptocurrency and they don't let china access any trading site online and any foreign country so if this issue will done expect the price will rise fast again  and the bitcoin will be fine again..