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Author Topic: Put your money where your mouth is!  (Read 321 times)
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LoyceV
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February 12, 2018, 12:41:34 PM
 #1

I know it's a bit unorthodox to make this thread in Speculation, and I've been thinking about it since October. Back then, Bitcoin was quickly rising. Since the end of last year it has been dropping. Bitcoin is worth a bit more now than when I originally came up with the idea.
In December, fees were too high for small transactions. Now that the Bitcoin fees have dropped a lot, I can finally open this experimental thread. Please bear with me Smiley

This board is filled with all kinds of speculations. To name a few: $5,000 before the end of this week, going to $100,000 now?, 1 Satoshi rise to $1?, or $10,000 by 2018. I'd like to see who's willing to bet on their predictions.

Put your money where your mouth is
Pay 0.001BTC, predict the Bitcoin price on a certain date, and win the pot (minus fees)!

Dates
Starting Date: now!
Join And Pay Before Date: February 28, 2018.
End Date: March 7, 2018.

My proposal
1. Choose a prediction for the Bitcoin price on End Date, but do not post it yet! This ensures nobody knows any other predictions, so nobody can aim $0.01 above or below someone else's prediction.
2. Sign a message with your prediction. Sign from the Bitcoin address you want to receive the prize on if you're the winner. Add some random text against brute-forcing, and post only the signature. Keep your message, you'll need it later. Do not edit this post again.
3. I'll assign a unique Bech32 deposit address to you: deposit exactly 0.001 BTC (1 mBTC, or 100,000 Satoshi). Keep in mind some wallets might take the fee out of the deposited amount.
4. After Pay Before Date, post your complete signed message. Please do so in a timely manner, give me enough time to post an overview of all predictions before End Date. If you forget to post this, I'll try to reach you. If you don't complete all required tasks, your entry becomes invalid. Your deposit will either be returned (minus fees) or added to the pot (at my discretion).
5. I will use as Bitcoin price in USD the average of High and Low on coinmarketcap.com on End Date (UTC time). This average is what you should predict. For example, for February 7, 2018, that would have been: (8509.11+7236.79)/2 = 7872.95 USD.
6. Whoever made the closest prediction wins the pot. In case of a tie, two or more winners will share the pot. Bitcoin fees will be taken from the prize money. I'd like to use a slow low fee (say 10 Satoshi/byte, about 3% of the pot), but if the winner prefers any other fee that's okay with me too. If enough people join, I'll consolidate inputs before End Date to take advantage of low fees.

This is an experiment to see how it goes. If it works out, I'd like to make this a monthly thing.


SegWit
To reduce fees, I'll use Bech32 SegWit addresses only. I'm new to this, and it's meant for two things: getting used to it by myself, and promoting SegWit usage. This means you'll need a wallet that supports native SegWit (such as Electrum) to be able to join.
But, since you can't sign a message from a native SegWit address, you'll need to sign a message from another address, and (if you win) the pot will be paid to that address.

Local rule
By posting a signature, you agree to deposit 0.001 BTC (step 3) and to post the rest of your signed message when needed (step 4). Breaking this rule may get your post deleted, it may get you disqualified from further rounds, and/or you may lose your deposit to the pot. This rule is meant to make this a smooth process.

I want out!
You can't! Once you join, you're in. I can't have people quitting when their prediction turns out to be bad. Think of it as play money, and don't risk anything you're not willing to lose.


Disclaimer
Although unlikely, several things can fail. For example, there might not be a solid exchange rate available when we need it. If that happens, I'll try to find the best possible alternative, taking into account community feedback.
I will not make a prediction by myself, and I won't join.
I may fine-tune the rules of this thread when needed. Remember, it's an experiment.


No spam
All my threads are now self-moderated to stop signature spam. I will remove all irrelevant posts. If you quote the entire OP, your entry will be deleted.
Feel free to archive this thread at any moment.


Why trust me
Check LoyceV's Hero Campaign/Services Portfolio to see what campaigns I have managed.
Check Payments to see me share about $1220 after the June 2017 Byteball airdrop. Subsequent comments testify to this.
See my Trust summary (click "Untrusted feedback").
Check my staked address to see my account is not hacked.
Full disclosure: for LoyceV's Legendary 10 Month 10 Person 10 Altcoin Investment Experiment: STARTED I still have altcoins currently worth about $1000 entrusted to me.
If this isn't enough: it's just $8.60 per person, I have no intention to running with that. I do this for fun, otherwise it would probably not even be worth my time.
If this still isn't enough: thanks for reading, don't join Tongue

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LoyceV
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February 18, 2018, 07:56:51 AM
 #2

Example
1st post (before Join And Pay Before Date):

Code:
H5VlTbeh10CHy20zkq6PocXQlXVaN0TpFBJnNfnpKSRTJxFyCMsSkc8gUNzRHFNieL1ipDDunfj0nvsZltUoz90=

2nd post (after Join And Pay Before Date but long before End Date):
Code:
-----BEGIN BITCOIN SIGNED MESSAGE-----
My prediction for End Date: March 7, 2018: $31,415.92
Random data: 786ui5u8uu^*^&*^&%^$*&#&%^&#%^&%&kfg
-----BEGIN SIGNATURE-----
1PjpEgknyKxQKXtMcYFDym8odkfohFGkui
H5VlTbeh10CHy20zkq6PocXQlXVaN0TpFBJnNfnpKSRTJxFyCMsSkc8gUNzRHFNieL1ipDDunfj0nvsZltUoz90=
-----END BITCOIN SIGNED MESSAGE-----
Click to verify.

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February 19, 2018, 11:52:07 AM
 #3

This is an awesome idea; was thinking of doing something like this myself but you beat me to it. I may consider coding an ETH smart contract that does exactly this automatically. Good luck, I'm posting here so that I can be notified if the pot ever grows big enough to be worth it.

Lowest interest lending in bitcointalk history. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2846750.0
LoyceV
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February 19, 2018, 11:58:24 AM
Merited by nullius (1)
 #4

I may consider coding an ETH smart contract that does exactly this automatically.
I stay far away from ETH, and especially smart contracts that nobody understands.

You're the first to reply in a week, if nobody joins this month, I'll try again on another board next month. I think I should also adjust the order of events a bit: currently you have to sign a message first, which means it's smart to wait until just before the Join And Pay Before Date.
It should be like this:
1. Post to join, get an address, and pay before Pay Before Date
2. Post a signature before Join Before Date
3. Post the full signed message before End Date

I won't edit the OP now, but if anyone wants to join using this new schedule, it's okay too.

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February 26, 2018, 09:47:15 PM
 #5

It does seem like an interesting experiment, but people might hesitate to be the first one to participate. If nobody else participates, you end up paying transfer fees for 2 transactions.
Wouldn't it be better if you participate with a prediction? That way, people know that they at least have one person to bet against.


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LoyceV
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March 01, 2018, 10:57:52 AM
 #6

Closed!
I'll try a new thread later.

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