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Author Topic: Why the last dip makes me optimistic.  (Read 164 times)
Nosk
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February 12, 2018, 04:38:47 PM
Merited by LoyceV (1), European Central Bank (1)
 #1

It is well known that btc have already faced similar dip to the one, as we can see on this (more or less accurate) figure :



The main difference between the last dip and the other dips is that it has been way more mediatized (you can see it on the following figure from google trend)



The main argument of the fudsters, banskters, etc... is that btc is a bubble. During the last dip, I couldn't count how many news about "the bitcoin bubble bursting" or so.
The bitcoin, as we could see for every other dip, started its recovery but this time before the eyes of a much wider population. This recovery followed dip discredits the fudsters in the eyes of everybody. A bubble burst doesn't recover. Fudsters were wrong.



I think the recent dip somehow pushed the bitcoin further in the curve of adoption. I don't think we will see the price skyrocket soon, but when the bitcoin will touch 15k€ or 18kusd, the news will surely mention it. At this point, media will talk about it again. The average joes will think "oh, last time I heard about it, it was like 6000usd / btc. It is back to that price again". Some of them will join, and they would be right. Why secure some USD on a bank account and maybe miss infinite benefits ? And that's what everybody should remember on this forum.

Hodl.
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February 12, 2018, 07:11:48 PM
 #2

Just a natural side effect of mainstream awareness - media's always been happy to cover Bitcoin, but I think the "mediasation" was apparent from November at least, thanks to the slew of regulation news beginning with Japan from April and them derivatives up in Chicago. So if we take your observation to have any meaning, it should be that the media hype during the peaking to make us pessimistic about price - as it turns out, we (you) would have been right then.

P.S. I think bubble means a lot of things, and can happen in cycles, just like real estate bubbles. They burst, and blow up again. I personally never took bubble to be a bad thing, yet another metric, yet another indication of maturity.

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February 12, 2018, 07:41:33 PM
 #3

It is well known that btc have already faced similar dip to the one, as we can see on this (more or less accurate) figure :



The main difference between the last dip and the other dips is that it has been way more mediatized (you can see it on the following figure from google trend)



The main argument of the fudsters, banskters, etc... is that btc is a bubble. During the last dip, I couldn't count how many news about "the bitcoin bubble bursting" or so.
The bitcoin, as we could see for every other dip, started its recovery but this time before the eyes of a much wider population. This recovery followed dip discredits the fudsters in the eyes of everybody. A bubble burst doesn't recover. Fudsters were wrong.

Ditto. Compared to the most recent crashes, the ones that bitcoin had in 2011-2012 didn't make it to mainstream news, and only a handful of media outlets and websites knew and covered those events. As time progress and as soon as more money pours in to bitcoin, the media's attention slowly increased. Because of this, the average Joe's awareness about a certain tech getting this big also increased and makes this Joe want to pour his money in hoping he can make some quick buck. The effects of the media sensationalizing the drastic up and downs of bitcoin's price totally helped in garnering that much needed awareness and attention, which resulted also into a widespread adoption albeit some couple setbacks (regulations, ehem).




I think the recent dip somehow pushed the bitcoin further in the curve of adoption. I don't think we will see the price skyrocket soon, but when the bitcoin will touch 15k€ or 18kusd, the news will surely mention it. At this point, media will talk about it again. The average joes will think "oh, last time I heard about it, it was like 6000usd / btc. It is back to that price again". Some of them will join, and they would be right. Why secure some USD on a bank account and maybe miss infinite benefits ? And that's what everybody should remember on this forum.

Hodl.

Not only does it pushed adoption higher, but also set a new floor in which we could all start with to take on higher highs. If $1100 to $19000 was attainable in a span of a year, then imagine what would be the top if we started @ $6000+ (the current bottom). The bitcoin bubble would even be bigger than its predecessors, and for sure many people will regret it later once the media reports bitcoin breaking yet another ATH along the way.

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richardsNY
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February 12, 2018, 08:01:34 PM
 #4

I don't know why people find it interesting to keep convincing themselves that it is a normal thing, and that while we have experienced this many times before already. It's a very long term repetitive trend that this market periodically experiences, which is nothing to be shocked about, but also nothing really interesting anymore. The next major increase will shape itself in the exact same pattern, which means that it will result in a massive crash again. I see it more as a 'guaranteed' form of profit that this market periodically offers, which is a more than welcome opportunity for people here, and it attracts capital from people looking to enter.
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February 12, 2018, 08:09:01 PM
 #5

let's wait and see what the mainstream markets do before figuring things out. it's a very interesting moment right now. we might find out if the two markets are correlated or not. if they're not then that's a very powerful sign.

until now bitcoin has had the luxury of growing up during seemingly never ending asset bubble. if that ends and bitcoin continues on its way onwards and upwards then things will get very interesting and possibly very quickly. there'll be a vast amount of money looking for a new toy to play with and bitcoin's slowly been edging its way towards the centre of the stage.
Nosk
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February 14, 2018, 03:31:25 PM
 #6

Aaaand here we go.
I frequently do some simple research on google ("bitcoin", more recent than 24h) and we are finally facing some bullish news.
Just as planned, some papers published articles like "Bitcoin resistance to bubbles", "it's not only bitcoin, it's the everything bubble", "bitcoin better than euro", "analysts says bitcoin will rise to 50kUSD". Of course there is still the classic FUD (bitcoin bad for the planet, JP morgan says bitcoin will go down to 4800usd...) but it is still a significant change.
I can't source them all so you'll have to do your research but I didn't invent a single article title Smiley

Bitcoin has shown its true nature of volatility and profitability.

Hodl.
Samarkand
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February 14, 2018, 03:53:36 PM
 #7

....
until now bitcoin has had the luxury of growing up during seemingly never ending asset bubble. if that ends and bitcoin continues on its way onwards and upwards then things will get very interesting and possibly very quickly. ...

I don´t think that we will find this out anytime soon. If the current asset bubble
across all asset classes comes to an end, the central banks of the world
will simply try to solve it the way they "solved" the 2008 financial crisis.

They will expand the money supply even further in order to prop up the markets
and parts of this liquidity will also find their way into BTC and other cryptocurrencies.
Combined with the upcoming block reward halving in 2020 this will provide us with
new BTC all-time highs. The bad news is that even if BTC finally crosses 100k $ / BTC
this amount will have nowhere near the purchasing power that 100k $ have today.
timerland
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February 15, 2018, 07:22:17 AM
 #8

It's just a matter of time, in my opinion.

These peaks and troughs are going to come and go for sure. You cannot expect bitcoin to pump forever, there has to be corrections and adjustments in between. And usually when we see these kind of adjustments, the results when the recovery comes is excellent. Markets get more resilient and stable every time a correction comes. Flushes out the irrational actors, basically.

We're on the verge of breaking $10k, as well. So I'm fairly optimistic at the moment as well. It'll be interesting to see if BTC continues the growth after the Lunar new year, as well.

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