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European Central Bank
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February 13, 2018, 01:03:42 AM
 #1

as far as i can tell there are still quite a few exchanges where new users can't register, which considering it's been months for a few is a surprise, and then there are others such as bitfinex that did reopen but increased the minimum amount to $10,000 before new people could start to trade. this has been going on since slightly before the peak.

what effect do you think this had on the markets since december, if any? has a huge amount new blood been denied and subsequently stopped a pump or softened the dump or would their effects have been negligible?

as far as i know there's never been a period where so many newbies couldn't get in on the action.
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February 13, 2018, 03:59:53 AM
 #2

I think that at first you shoult concider what effect those exchanges had on the BTC price. For some people trading BTC/USD via crypto exchanges might be a real pain in the ass because major exchanges are either not trading this pairs or have restrictions about it (situation around USD withdrawals is also complicated). But looking backward to the moments when exchanges closed registrations it didn't had an impact on the  BTC price that time, that was not the reason for panic selling during the FUD so I don't think that it may influence the BTC price that much (and tbh crypto might not be so attractive for newbies nowadays).
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February 13, 2018, 05:07:42 AM
 #3

It would have to fall under the delayed gratification category. I think it stops a lot of unnecessary network congestion, which in turn will stop a lot of FUD and frustration. More realistically, it was probably because these specific exchanges were experiencing workload issues, and could not handle the resource management. They buckled under the pressure in other words, and I believe the effect to be negligible over the long-haul and probably only temporarily softening movement in either direction. New users can pump better than they can dump.
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February 13, 2018, 07:47:17 AM
 #4

as far as i can tell there are still quite a few exchanges where new users can't register, which considering it's been months for a few is a surprise, and then there are others such as bitfinex that did reopen but increased the minimum amount to $10,000 before new people could start to trade. this has been going on since slightly before the peak.

what effect do you think this had on the markets since december, if any? has a huge amount new blood been denied and subsequently stopped a pump or softened the dump or would their effects have been negligible?

as far as i know there's never been a period where so many newbies couldn't get in on the action.

It affects the altcoin markets much more than the Bitcoin markets. Bitfinex isn’t a gateway for newbies; hardly anyone can deposit fiat money there anyway. Bittrex and Binance are Tether-only, and no newbies are entering the space through Bitfinex/Tether. So it prevents money from flowing into altcoins more than anything else.

At the same time, real fiat gateways like Coinbase, Gemini, Bitflyer and Korean exchanges like Bithumb continue to onboard newbies. The last couple months of price action really just looks like classic post-bubble Bitcoin.

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February 13, 2018, 08:52:29 AM
Merited by TheQuin (1)
 #5

as far as i can tell there are still quite a few exchanges where new users can't register, which considering it's been months for a few is a surprise, and then there are others such as bitfinex that did reopen but increased the minimum amount to $10,000 before new people could start to trade. this has been going on since slightly before the peak.

what effect do you think this had on the markets since december, if any? has a huge amount new blood been denied and subsequently stopped a pump or softened the dump or would their effects have been negligible?

as far as i know there's never been a period where so many newbies couldn't get in on the action.

I'm sure I'm not overestimating newcomers when I say that they can surely find a way around registering accounts at these exchanges. There's still quite a few options available for those who can't open new accounts at the "big players", and even a 5 second Google search will show these up. Even if the established P2P marketplaces like Localbitcoins aren't available in those countries (it's virtually everywhere though), there are plenty of others to try - yes, they may not seem as straightforward as Coinbase and the like (then again, you gotta jump through a lot more hoops there with verification anyway!) but if people can open and manage online bank accounts, it doesn't take much more to get their first crypto.

Worse come to worse, at least two of any of the markets listed on coinmarketcap are open for registration. So I don't really think there's a nett effect. New money isn't restricted, I don't think.

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February 13, 2018, 12:15:52 PM
 #6

as far as i can tell there are still quite a few exchanges where new users can't register, which considering it's been months for a few is a surprise, and then there are others such as bitfinex that did reopen but increased the minimum amount to $10,000 before new people could start to trade. this has been going on since slightly before the peak.

what effect do you think this had on the markets since december, if any? has a huge amount new blood been denied and subsequently stopped a pump or softened the dump or would their effects have been negligible?

as far as i know there's never been a period where so many newbies couldn't get in on the action.

I think the lack of newcomers softened both the pump and the subsequent dumping of coins. Question is whether our new friends that will get their accounts activated over the course of the next few weeks are still interested in Bitcoin now that its bull run has seemingly ended.

Of course we might see a second wave of uptrend in which case FOMO is likely to hit the newcomers hard once the market gains steam again. Not sure how well this is going to end though. Maybe a new crypto winter would be a good thing after all. It tends to thin the herd of both shitcoins and get-rich-quick speculators, which in the long run would be a net positive for the crypto market's stability.


[...]

At the same time, real fiat gateways like Coinbase, Gemini, Bitflyer and Korean exchanges like Bithumb continue to onboard newbies. The last couple months of price action really just looks like classic post-bubble Bitcoin.

Kraken and Bitstamp seem to struggle with verifying new accounts though, both of which are very important for the European market.

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February 13, 2018, 12:21:33 PM
 #7

Question is whether our new friends that will get their accounts activated over the course of the next few weeks are still interested in Bitcoin now that its bull run has seemingly ended.

i'm gonna lean towards a no on that myself. dumb money, which usually means new money, only appears riding the final crest of the wave. it does not revive or create bull runs. it's the first to leave and the last to show up again.
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February 13, 2018, 01:43:59 PM
 #8


as far as i know there's never been a period where so many newbies couldn't get in on the action.

All things considered, this is actually a great thing. It's thank to newbies that we have all these massive sell-offs when the price starts growing. Granted, most likely they are part of the FOMO massive rises, but the other side of the coin is the panic selling that ensues after the obligatory fake news media release their FUD.

What I hate is that you can't no longer trade against altcoins anonymously. My Poloniex account which I registered with some fake name years ago when nobody cared about exchanges, is now asking me to put my data, phone, etc, even to trade altcoins which is ridiculous, same goes for Bitfinex et al. You are now ostracized to low volume exchanges if you don't want to give some people you don't know all of your data attached to your coins.
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February 13, 2018, 01:57:55 PM
 #9

Question is whether our new friends that will get their accounts activated over the course of the next few weeks are still interested in Bitcoin now that its bull run has seemingly ended.

i'm gonna lean towards a no on that myself. dumb money, which usually means new money, only appears riding the final crest of the wave. it does not revive or create bull runs. it's the first to leave and the last to show up again.

True. Well, not all new money is necessarily dumb money, but I'm sure there's a fair share of people that simply want to invest in cryptocurrencies because they have increased in value, not because of their technological, economical and social implications. In that regard I guess there's little lost if these newcomers stay out of the market. Quite the contrary, it's probably better for long term stability if the only people that are left putting money into cryptocurrencies are the ones that see the bigger picture and are actually interested in this new asset class by itself.

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February 13, 2018, 02:46:55 PM
 #10

as far as i can tell there are still quite a few exchanges where new users can't register, which considering it's been months for a few is a surprise, and then there are others such as bitfinex that did reopen but increased the minimum amount to $10,000 before new people could start to trade. this has been going on since slightly before the peak.

what effect do you think this had on the markets since december, if any? has a huge amount new blood been denied and subsequently stopped a pump or softened the dump or would their effects have been negligible?

as far as i know there's never been a period where so many newbies couldn't get in on the action.

The main exchange new users go to - Coinbase - has remained opened to noobs and allows them to buy bitcoin easily via credit or debit card.

The exchanges closed to new users tend to be in the east, like Bitfinex and Binance.

I guess it depends on who you think is the main driver of bitcoin adoption, people from the west or from the east.

 
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February 13, 2018, 02:56:41 PM
Merited by European Central Bank (1)
 #11

i'm gonna lean towards a no on that myself. dumb money, which usually means new money, only appears riding the final crest of the wave. it does not revive or create bull runs. it's the first to leave and the last to show up again.

Almost everybody that has recently got excited about bitcoin are most likely only in it because they heard that "as an investment" bitcoin is skyrocketing and then the second they see it dip they are completely done with Bitcoin as a whole. These people are looking for an easy way out and are not interested in Bitcoin as a technology, protocol or the future of currency. These people are better off being barred from exchanges (even temporarily) for the sake of bitcoin being misinterpreted and misused.

I've had so many people ask me "How do you buy stock in Bitcoin?" and I just shake my head at them and tell them they shouldn't invest in something they don't understand.
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February 13, 2018, 03:51:30 PM
Merited by EthanB (1)
 #12

[...]

I've had so many people ask me "How do you buy stock in Bitcoin?" and I just shake my head at them and tell them they shouldn't invest in something they don't understand.

So much this. "How do you buy Bitcoin?" is my least favourite question to be asked. If people ask me about hardware wallets or mining or what the fuck this whole cryptocurrency thing is about I'll gladly help out. But if the first question is on how to buy Bitcoin, you first need to learn to ask the real questions, my friend. I might just be a dick tho.

It's so weird. People either dismiss cryptocurrencies from the get-go or immediately want to throw money at it, no questions asked.

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February 13, 2018, 04:17:53 PM
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 #13

Don't forget that people have the option to buy bitcoin using bitcoin ATMs - so in those places where there are ATMs and the local population is aware of their existence, I expect people are more likely to buy using an ATM than by trying to register on an exchange and wiring money.

Have a look at the following ATM map:

https://coinatmradar.com/countries/

Canada which has only 30 million people has 345 ATMs!

The United States with 350 million people has 1460 ATMs.

I'd wager more people in Canada bought bitcoins via ATMs than through exchanges like QuadrigaCX (Canadian dollar crypto exchange)
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February 13, 2018, 06:10:27 PM
 #14

I guess it depends on who you think is the main driver of bitcoin adoption, people from the west or from the east.

The answer in my mind is both, the main driver of bitcoin adoption is decentralization, which would not be possible if it were not for people from every geographical distinction using it. Obviously there may be more bitcoin or more buyers in one area, but the important thing is that there still are HODLers, buyers and investors from as many locations as possible.
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February 13, 2018, 09:41:59 PM
 #15

Don't forget that people have the option to buy bitcoin using bitcoin ATMs - so in those places where there are ATMs and the local population is aware of their existence, I expect people are more likely to buy using an ATM than by trying to register on an exchange and wiring money.

Have a look at the following ATM map:

https://coinatmradar.com/countries/

Canada which has only 30 million people has 345 ATMs!

The United States with 350 million people has 1460 ATMs.

I'd wager more people in Canada bought bitcoins via ATMs than through exchanges like QuadrigaCX (Canadian dollar crypto exchange)

Does anyone have any data about just how much bitcoin is bought through these ATMs?

 
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February 13, 2018, 09:50:24 PM
 #16

Does anyone have any data about just how much bitcoin is bought through these ATMs?

Apart from Jimbotoronto, I'm not sure there's anyone.

Those numbers are still minuscule which tells us they can't be all that popular. And the fees... I guess if you're a full on noob you may not pay attention but the cost is often worse than buying an empty paper wallet on Ebay.

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February 14, 2018, 01:13:09 AM
 #17

Does anyone have any data about just how much bitcoin is bought through these ATMs?

Apart from Jimbotoronto, I'm not sure there's anyone.

Those numbers are still minuscule which tells us they can't be all that popular. And the fees... I guess if you're a full on noob you may not pay attention but the cost is often worse than buying an empty paper wallet on Ebay.

Yeah, the fees are extreme. Also they are in very few locations. Both factors combined make for a very marginal usage.

I would be willing to use one far apart IF the fees were negligible OR one with high fees if it were so conveniently located I could just go walking to it (note this is Jimbo case, plus he actively avoids traditional banking).

They would need to rethink their business model, offer lower fees (maybe a tiered fee for high frequency/amount users) which would exponentially increase the usage and maybe even profit besides the smaller margin. Then go increase number of locations along the increased usage.

I guess what current ATM networks are doing is just stepping one feet on the market so that they are well positioned when/if crypto usage booms by itself. Maybe they are smart enough and that is the best strategy right now... timing is key with emerging markets: Invest too early and you will bankrupt before seeing any profits, too late and your out the market.

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February 14, 2018, 06:50:33 AM
 #18

as far as i can tell there are still quite a few exchanges where new users can't register, which considering it's been months for a few is a surprise, and then there are others such as bitfinex that did reopen but increased the minimum amount to $10,000 before new people could start to trade. this has been going on since slightly before the peak.

I believe having a required amount minimum will become the standard among Bitcoin exchanges in time, and they will also require a stricter verification process. I find that worrying because we are supposed to trade cryptocurrencies freely without hurdles and boundaries.

Quote
what effect do you think this had on the markets since december, if any? has a huge amount new blood been denied and subsequently stopped a pump or softened the dump or would their effects have been negligible?

Not much. If there was, it was negligible in my opinion. There were more buyers dumping than "new blood" coming in.

Quote
as far as i know there's never been a period where so many newbies couldn't get in on the action.

But which exchanges denied new registrations? Not all of them.


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