[Bearish] Bitcoin Risks Crashing to $900 If Dot-Com Mania Is Any Guide

[bbc.reporter]

I have been thinking about this lately. On the month of January 2017, no one would believe or even conceive that bitcoin would rise to $20,000 if someone told you it will, but it did.

Now giving that as an argument, do you reckon that an extreme prediction to the opposite direction is also possible?



Already slashed by more than half since hitting a record near $20,000 in December, the cryptocurrency could plunge a further 90 percent in an environment of unsustainably growing supply, according to Bloomberg Intelligence commodity strategist Mike McGlone. Using Amazon.com Inc. and the Nasdaq Composite Index’s spectacular rise and retreat at the turn of the millennium as a proxy, he said the currency could plunge to $900.

Read the full article https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-12/bitcoin-risks-crashing-to-900-if-dot-com-mania-is-any-guide

[Nosk]

Yeeeey future ath coming 

Jokes aside, bitcoin is way older than this  (the blue chart only shows the last year) and, for example, the 2013 rise and crash also looks like it. Did bitcoin die ? Nope, it grew by xxxx%.

[bbc.reporter]

@Nosk. I never said that bitcoin will die. But it might follow the same pattern of some successful tech company stock in the Nasdaq before achieving full recovery.

In any case the main argument is if someone told us that bitcoin will go down to $900, we would not believe him. But if we go back to January 2017, if someone said back then that bitcoin will go up to $20,000, we wouldn't believe him either.

[pooya87]

we can never predict bitcoin and anything is possible. it can drop to $10 or it can rise to $100,000.
but saying it can drop to $900 is like saying all the adoption and rises that went into bitcoin for the past 16-17 months were shit and ALL of it is going to go out! that is impossible if you ask me.
and predicting the drop to $900 is just as silly as predicting the rise to $1 million by the end of this year at this point.

unsustainably growing supply

ROFL

[cindygirl]

Now giving that as an argument, do you reckon that an extreme prediction to the opposite direction is also possible?

This isn't much of a statement, it's in essence saying that everything is possible, which we all know to be true. The price is free to move from $0 all the way to $∞ because it is decided by supply and demand.

the cryptocurrency could plunge a further 90 percent in an environment of unsustainably growing supply

There is not an unsustainable growing supply so that's not relevant here, it's also not relevant to the comparison with dot-com? The supply is very much controlled and limited.

[jhenfelipe]

Just because we didn't see any positive comments/confirmation if someone believe in anything doesn't mean that no one does, right? Anyway, why are you thinking about who believes or not? I mean, it's a prediction and anything could happen. What's important is your position regarding the matter. Others are responsible in their own actions.

[Jet Cash]

You need to be careful when considering any statement by Amazon, It is a major globalist organisation, and we know they are accumulating Bitcoin to assist in their future control of the crypto market.

Another example of their duplicity is their move into health foods, and whole foods, and this does not lie comfortably with their support for global eugenics. No doubt they hope to poison the Bitcoin market as well.

[bbc.reporter]

we can never predict bitcoin and anything is possible. it can drop to $10 or it can rise to $100,000.
but saying it can drop to $900 is like saying all the adoption and rises that went into bitcoin for the past 16-17 months were shit and ALL of it is going to go out! that is impossible if you ask me.
and predicting the drop to $900 is just as silly as predicting the rise to $1 million by the end of this year at this point.

You are contradicting yourself by saying we can never predict bitcoin and following it up with an assertion that if someone says it can make a drop to $900, it's impossible.

Also, that was the whole point. No one would believe in something until it already happened, because it is impossible. Anything is possible.

@Jet Cash. Did you know that Amazon had a $600 million deal with the CIA and that Jeff Bezos is part of the Pentagon's defense advisory board?

[bitcoin_is_here_to_stay_2]

We must be really in a bear market, if you add "Bearish" disclaimer to a thread about bitcoin possibly going to $900 - so that nobody think it is a bullish scenario, LOL.

BTW, Amazon trades now around 300x of its post-crash price. So people like us, who are in it long-term and firmly believe in bitcoin's future, have no reasons to be worried.

[pooya87]

we can never predict bitcoin and anything is possible. it can drop to $10 or it can rise to $100,000.
but saying it can drop to $900 is like saying all the adoption and rises that went into bitcoin for the past 16-17 months were shit and ALL of it is going to go out! that is impossible if you ask me.
and predicting the drop to $900 is just as silly as predicting the rise to $1 million by the end of this year at this point.

You are contradicting yourself by saying we can never predict bitcoin and following it up with an assertion that if someone says it can make a drop to $900, it's impossible.

Also, that was the whole point. No one would believe in something until it already happened, because it is impossible. Anything is possible.

being impossible is about chance of that happening, conversely when we say something is impossible it means the chances of it happening is nearly zero. for example there is a chance that you find a hash collision with SHA256 but the chances are too small that makes it impossible.

also as i ROFLed above, when the whole argument of the article is that "bitcoin supply is growing parabolically aka unsustainably growing supply" then you shouldn't even be re-posting it here!
what they are saying is like this: "number of shares of Apple have increased unsustainably in past years because now there are 10000 other small companies which have nothing to do with Apple like an agriculture company selling fertilizer"

[timerland]

The thing is that bitcoin is not the dotcom bubble. The circumstances are different for every bubble, and if it bubbles in the first place then it's probably a sign of it's finally got some media attention that it deserves.

And even though bitcoin is a bubble, and yes, it may crash, I really doubt that it'll get back to 3 figures again. Ask anyone whether they would want to purchase bitcoin at the all time high of 2013 and they would say a definite yes.

Also if you actually bothered to zoom out on the big picture... You'll see where amazon is at right now. Thousands of percent above the dotcom bubble levels.



I agree that bitcoin may go down further, but definitely will be staying above $2-3k at the worst case.

[bbc.reporter]

we can never predict bitcoin and anything is possible. it can drop to $10 or it can rise to $100,000.
but saying it can drop to $900 is like saying all the adoption and rises that went into bitcoin for the past 16-17 months were shit and ALL of it is going to go out! that is impossible if you ask me.
and predicting the drop to $900 is just as silly as predicting the rise to $1 million by the end of this year at this point.

You are contradicting yourself by saying we can never predict bitcoin and following it up with an assertion that if someone says it can make a drop to $900, it's impossible.

Also, that was the whole point. No one would believe in something until it already happened, because it is impossible. Anything is possible.

being impossible is about chance of that happening, conversely when we say something is impossible it means the chances of it happening is nearly zero. for example there is a chance that you find a hash collision with SHA256 but the chances are too small that makes it impossible.

also as i ROFLed above, when the whole argument of the article is that "bitcoin supply is growing parabolically aka unsustainably growing supply" then you shouldn't even be re-posting it here!
what they are saying is like this: "number of shares of Apple have increased unsustainably in past years because now there are 10000 other small companies which have nothing to do with Apple like an agriculture company selling fertilizer"

No impossible means it cannot happen. Check the dictionary.

http://www.dictionary.com/browse/impossible

Dont justify what you said by comparing it to a hash collision not happening because it is not impossible, there is a really minute chance of it happening. Almost impossible is the right term.

Also, yes I saw the author's mistake, but I posted it anyway because that wasn't entirely where I was taking the argument.

[HabBear]

Another short sighted article that refuses to acknowledge the whole picture. The greatest thing we risk repeating is the ignorance of the media during an investment cycle.

I remember a few dot.com companies...Google, Amazon, PayPal, Ebay, Yahoo to name a few. They were hot in the 1990s...and the had major price correction in the early 2000s, and they've roared back well beyond their 1990s levels since.

Bitcoin is Google.

Ethereum is Amazon.

Litecoin is Yahoo.

Ripple is Paypal.

See a trend here? The bubble is the ICO activity going on, not with the 5-10 core coins that offer actual utility to people who are not already invested in cryptocurrency.

[magneto]

How is bitcoin's supply growing unsustainably?

The supply of dotcom bubble companies was growing unsustainably, but bitcoin's coins in circulation is barely increasing and is following a tight schedule that can't be manipulated by anyone other than community consensus.

If anything, the supply of BTC will actually be staying the same or even decreasing considering the amount of coins lost each day, in a decade's time. So no, that claim is just completely off.

If BTC does go to $900 then it just means it's another dip to buy. Means nothing else since BTC will bounce back much stronger.