2013-09-13 Falkvinge.net - Bitcoin's Vast Overvaluation...

[LightRider]

http://falkvinge.net/2013/09/13/bitcoins-vast-overvaluation-seems-to-be-caused-by-usually-illegal-price-fixing

If Mr. Falkvinge is interested in a world without manipulation and price fixing, he should investigate a resource based economy.

[Carlton Banks]

Over-simplified preposition. He bases the whole argument on the "transactional economy" supposition, which is dead wrong. In addition, what is the reason for the intervention of the price riggers? Purely that of financial gain? Another assumption, and also wrong.

[aigeezer]

From the article: "the valuation is unwarranted by several orders of magnitude." That is an extremely strong claim.

For example, grabbing the first online definition of "several" that comes to hand: "Being of a number more than two or three but not many" and applying it here, I get

Actual BTC evaluation about $140 bernanke-bux.
One order of magnitude overvalued, about $14.
Two orders of magnitude overvalued, about $1.40
Three orders of magnitude overvalued, about $0.14

Entering the realm of "several" now

Four orders of magnitude overvalued, about $0.014
Five orders of magnitude overvalued, about $0.0014

and so forth.

I call FUD on this alone, but there's plenty more.

"Drugs, gambling, and… not much more"

It's one of those articles. However, the comments below it are very much worth reading - much more sophisticated arguments there, along with some of the inevitable comment fluff.

[p2pbucks]

Overvaluation ? BTC is undervaluated now , waite price to hit 10K USD

[gurcani]

[odolvlobo]

...  I estimated the endgame value of one bitcoin, if the currency succeeds, to be between 100,000 and 1,000,000 US Dollars. That estimation still holds.

...  the valuation is unwarranted by several orders of magnitude.

He needs to clarify this inconsistency.

[Carlton Banks]

...  I estimated the endgame value of one bitcoin, if the currency succeeds, to be between 100,000 and 1,000,000 US Dollars. That estimation still holds.

...  the valuation is unwarranted by several orders of magnitude.

He needs to clarify this inconsistency.

I think he intends to do so.... by buying everything he can below $120 once this across the board FUD campaign hits the price  . It seems that most people aren't selling though, despite what's lined up against the exchange rate (and hasn't there been alot of downward pressure in the media, curious timing Mr. Falkvinge...)

[smoothie]

wasn't this the same guy who said he put everything into bitcoin back in late May 2011 or early June 2011?

Then he sold out his position and supposedly bought back again...

Now he's saying bitcoin is over valued? lol

[johnyj]

If transaction demand is so important, gold would be worth almost nothing now

[HeliKopterBen]

...  I estimated the endgame value of one bitcoin, if the currency succeeds, to be between 100,000 and 1,000,000 US Dollars. That estimation still holds.

...  the valuation is unwarranted by several orders of magnitude.

He needs to clarify this inconsistency.

He talks about the "shark squad" market manipulators and then calls bitcoin "a truly free market". 

In a truly free market people can buy and sell for whatever reason they see fit, even the "shark squad".

[gurcani]

why does it have to be a squad? One person with multiple mtgox accounts can do this, non? He just needs to gather the money finally on the verified account to withdraw it.
Btw, I say multiple accounts, because I am assuming you can't fill your own sell orders by a buy order, from the same account. Though I've never tested that assumption.

[Realpra]

1.2 billion is not a lot of money... lots of companies are worth that, Bitcoin is not just another company its a new paradigme.

Just drugs? From that alone the value could soar to 100 billion, (though the money trail is likely not the hardest part of distributing drugs and drug users are likely not very technical).

[Meni Rosenfeld]

wasn't this the same guy who said he put everything into bitcoin back in late May 2011 or early June 2011?

Then he sold out his position and supposedly bought back again...

Now he's saying bitcoin is over valued? lol

Same guy.

As long as this is mentioned, I'll ask -

His statement that he put everything in Bitcoin is well-known.

I've heard it rumored that he later sold most of it, but are there references for this?

If he bought back later, is there a reference for this as well?

[Carlton Banks]

wasn't this the same guy who said he put everything into bitcoin back in late May 2011 or early June 2011?

Then he sold out his position and supposedly bought back again...

Now he's saying bitcoin is over valued? lol

Same guy.

As long as this is mentioned, I'll ask -

His statement that he put everything in Bitcoin is well-known.

I've heard it rumored that he later sold most of it, but are there references for this?

If he bought back later, is there a reference for this as well?

There was definitely an interview with Falkvinge where he is not directly quoted, but the text body simply states that he sold off all his BTC holdings shortly after the 2011 spike. I cannot remember the source, though.

[TraderTimm]

There was definitely an interview with Falkvinge where he is not directly quoted, but the text body simply states that he sold off all his BTC holdings shortly after the 2011 spike. I cannot remember the source, though.

"Talking his book" eh? I guess if I had sold off in the 30's I'd be a little pissed it was 100 bucks and change higher, too.

This puts his whole rant in to perspective. He's a piss-poor trader that blew his wad, and now he wants a lower cost basis so he can get back in.

[SheHadMANHands]

Irony:  Mr. Falkvinge publishes article about bitcoin price manipulation, stating the price is "orders of magnitude" higher than it should be (that's record breaking manipulation, by the way), in hopes that he can scare a bunch of sheep to sell so he can buy more bitcoin at a depressed rate.  Price manipulation via publication about price manipulation.

lol

EDIT: Also, strong understanding of value by Mr. Falkvinge.

[SolarSilver]

wasn't this the same guy who said he put everything into bitcoin back in late May 2011 or early June 2011?

Then he sold out his position and supposedly bought back again...

Now he's saying bitcoin is over valued? lol

So he bought in a $USD 2 and sold some at $USD 20 but lost most of it investing in scams like Pirate42 and now looks for a new low to buy in again?

[kjlimo]

Heh, yeha.  We gotta keep our heads down & do work.  For that, I believe we will be rewarded.