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Author Topic: Experiences about  (Read 628 times)
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July 16, 2011, 12:19:00 PM

I planned posting this in response to "Experiences about" but as I ended up in the newbie section I just dump it here.
So far i was able to leech approximately 1.9 BTC from doubletrouble, but since they changed the minimum bet to 0.50 BTC I don't think my strategy will work anymore and I'm not going to try it. I also strongly suggest neither should you. Since my doubletrouble leeching isn't working anymore I thought I share my experience.
I started playing around with Bitcoins a month ago and after I got the first transaction from the mining pool I wanted to play a little bit around with transactions to figure out how it was working. Coincidentally I came across (I think it was linked in the bitcoin wiki) and thought I give it a try. I'm normally not into gambling but after I won the first game I thought I might as well go on with it betting what I've had won. I was always betting 0.01BTC and I was surprised how often I won, I didn't keep records back then but I won far more often then I lost. I tried higher bets but beyond 0.02 BTC it seemed like I started losing (maybe it's just my imagination because I didn't play many games >0.02). Because i couldn't be bothered betting 0.01BTC and wait all that time until the transaction was confirmed manually I decided to write a little python script that did that for me.
In total the script played 248 rounds with following results:
bet 0.01:
won: 132, lost: 29
bet 0.02:
won: 62, lost 25

So it looks like chances of wining with a 0.01 bet were ~80% and for a 0.02 bet ~70%.
Generally rigging the game in favour of the player seems kinda stupid but my guess is it is rigged for those low bets to lure people into betting bigger amounts, which i can't prove because I'm not stupid enough to try it with bigger bets there. My advice would be to not use such a shady gambling site at all.
In case anyone cares I can post the transaction logs of all the bets and the python script.
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July 16, 2011, 12:23:29 PM

Maybe an average of 49% of win. (why not on an exponential? example: 90% of win with a bet of 0.01 BTC and 20% with 0.50 BTC, almost 49% in average). In all cases you haven't really 49% chances of win. It's a fake coin flipping.

Example with minimum bet at 0.01 and maximum bet at 0.50 on an exponential

Average: 49% chances of win.
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