We are repeating 2012, not 2011

[wormbog]

Someone please consult the entrails so we can get closure on this.

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[Odalv]

Nobody responding to my great argument right above here why price will likely go down. Anyone sees holes in my reasoning?

$40 ? hahaha :-) better odds are for $1000

[ElectricMucus]

Nobody responding to my great argument right above here why price will likely go down. Anyone sees holes in my reasoning?

$40 ? hahaha :-) better odds are for $1000

because?

[Odalv]

Nobody responding to my great argument right above here why price will likely go down. Anyone sees holes in my reasoning?

$40 ? hahaha :-) better odds are for $1000

because?

Just my feelings. I can bet with you. (You can hedge on that bet.)  100 BTC at $1000 before $40

[ElectricMucus]

Any bet would have to be in real money.

[Odalv]

Any bet would have to be in real money.

Is $10,000 USD enough real for you ?

[ElectricMucus]

Any bet would have to be in real money.

Is $10,000 USD enough real for you ?

Pretty real. I won't take any bet denominated in BTC, and I don't really trust you.

[TERA]

I'll bet you 1000BTC that BTC doesn't go to $0.10 next year, payable in BTC.

[sublime5447]

Nobody responding to my great argument right above here why price will likely go down. Anyone sees holes in my reasoning?

$40 ? hahaha :-) better odds are for $1000

because?

Just my feelings. I can bet with you. (You can hedge on that bet.)  100 BTC at $1000 before $40

http://falkvinge.net/2013/09/13/bitcoins-vast-overvaluation-seems-to-be-caused-by-usually-illegal-price-fixing/

[Peter Lambert]

Nobody responding to my great argument right above here why price will likely go down. Anyone sees holes in my reasoning?

$40 ? hahaha :-) better odds are for $1000

because?

Just my feelings. I can bet with you. (You can hedge on that bet.)  100 BTC at $1000 before $40

http://falkvinge.net/2013/09/13/bitcoins-vast-overvaluation-seems-to-be-caused-by-usually-illegal-price-fixing/

He is wrong about the current value of a bitcoin. He is comparing bitcoin store of value value to USD store of value value, without considering the differences between the two. The USD is a mature, inflationary currency, while bitcoins are a growing, deflationary currency. Why would anybody hold USD? They are not a good store of value, so people spend them as soon as they get them. Bitcoins on the other had are reasonably expected to go up in value, so using them as a store of value is what many people are doing.

He then goes on to talk about the "shark squad" AKA the Manipulator who is painting the tape and manipulating the price of bitocoins. his in depth analysis seems to have turned up two competing trading bots, not some sort of conspiracy. He also has no way of verifying that the several different actions are all being done by the same people. It might just have been somebody looking to get into bitcoins making the big buys which push the price up, and then the two trading bots fighting with each other after each movement.

[bb113]

Looking at the price graph, I say the price movements this year much more closely resemble the rise in 2012 than they do the rise in 2011.

In 2011 the peak was followed by a downward slide. In 2012, the peak was followed by a nearly flat plateau. Now that we are a couple months past the peak in 2013, it looks like we are forming a plateau. I suspect we will never drop below 100 again.

Since there was a larger rise this time than in 2012, there could be a much longer plateau before we start rising again. So we will start to see the price rising slowly over the next 6 months to a year, and the price will noticeably take off sometime in late 2014 or even 2015.

[ElectricMucus]

Any bet would have to be in real money.

Is $10,000 USD enough real for you ?

Pretty real. I won't take any bet denominated in BTC, and I don't really trust you.

Do a 2-out-of-3 multi-sig escrow bet, using someone you both trust. He puts 250 BTC in the escrow, you put 10 BTC

That would still be to my disadvantage since it's pretty certain prices would flashcrash if it reaches 40. I was offering a similar bet with lower stakes to Kupsi a few months ago and we couldn't agree to terms.
And I don't really think Odlav would risk 250 Bitcoins, I think he offered the bet because of the leverage he would get if the bet would be denominated in BTC.

[User705]

Any bet would have to be in real money.

Is $10,000 USD enough real for you ?

Pretty real. I won't take any bet denominated in BTC, and I don't really trust you.

Do a 2-out-of-3 multi-sig escrow bet, using someone you both trust. He puts 250 BTC in the escrow, you put 10 BTC

That would still be to my disadvantage since it's pretty certain prices would flashcrash if it reaches 40. I was offering a similar bet with lower stakes to Kupsi a few months ago and we couldn't agree to terms.
And I don't really think Odlav would risk 250 Bitcoins, I think he offered the bet because of the leverage he would get if the bet would be denominated in BTC.

Assuming you figure out the trust issue you can simply agree to adjust the BTC deposit to escrow to make sure it stays at a constant fiat value and if one party doesn't perform that causes an automatic win.

[BitchicksHusband]

This looks really familiar, like the same things we are reading right now.

Don't forget the November bubble started about exactly 30 days after this on about October 16.

[TERA]

This looks really familiar, like the same things we are reading right now.

Don't forget the November bubble started about exactly 30 days after this on about October 16.

There is no similarity of 2014 to 2013. at all

[BitChick]

Nobody responding to my great argument right above here why price will likely go down. Anyone sees holes in my reasoning?

$40 ? hahaha :-) better odds are for $1000

So Odalv, you were totally right last year.  What are your thoughts for this year as we are perhaps on the brink of a new bubble?  $4000, $5000 more likely than $300? 

[Hunyadi]

This looks really familiar, like the same things we are reading right now.

Don't forget the November bubble started about exactly 30 days after this on about October 16.

There is no similarity of 2014 to 2013. at all

Yes, now you are here 

[rudius]

This looks really familiar, like the same things we are reading right now.

Don't forget the November bubble started about exactly 30 days after this on about October 16.

There is no similarity of 2014 to 2013. at all

Yes, now you are here 

Lol, from reading it, sure there was a lot of similarities in what people thought.

[Toxic2040]

The rise of 2013 was much higher than the rise of 2012.  Some people keep speaking of the obvious "line" on the log chart. However I am having trouble finding this line and in fact I can draw several lines which would allow btc to go much lower than it is now before going up again. I have plotted a couple for reference.



The low volume and the lack of significant bid depth on mtgox that continues to fail to fill in above 125 seems to confirm my suspicion that it isn't ready to go higher at this point. I think this ordeal with the bid depth was an inflection point for this Jul-Aug rally.  

I find it very amusing to see such wrong prediction's...over and over again from the same FUDster's. Why do you waste valuable energy in something you do not believe in?

Great necro thread revival. Thank's.

[Odalv]

Nobody responding to my great argument right above here why price will likely go down. Anyone sees holes in my reasoning?

$40 ? hahaha :-) better odds are for $1000

So Odalv, you were totally right last year.  What are your thoughts for this year as we are perhaps on the brink of a new bubble?  $4000, $5000 more likely than $300? 

I have no clue. :-) We need to have reliable exchange ... (safe place to store billions in fiat and bitcoins ... not anonymous or Ltd.)   We will see if Barry Silbert or something else will be successfull.