We are repeating 2012, not 2011

[Peter Lambert]

Looking at the price graph, I say the price movements this year much more closely resemble the rise in 2012 than they do the rise in 2011.

In 2011 the peak was followed by a downward slide. In 2012, the peak was followed by a nearly flat plateau. Now that we are a couple months past the peak in 2013, it looks like we are forming a plateau. I suspect we will never drop below 100 again.

Since there was a larger rise this time than in 2012, there could be a much longer plateau before we start rising again. So we will start to see the price rising slowly over the next 6 months to a year, and the price will noticeably take off sometime in late 2014 or even 2015.

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[Manna]

Similarties to the past occure in every stock in future, but they are not the same. Its even more possible that we see a downward for 1-2 months. In September markets tend to fall in generall, well 2013 not because we have the FED flooding dollars. In theory of Kostolanys egg we should see a rise in price in October.

[wachtwoord]

Results in the past give no guarantee for the future. Sometimes they give indications though

[smoothie]

If that pattern repeats price should go to $300-$500 in 2.5 months time.

[ElectricMucus]

It looks like we aren't repeating either one.

[smoothie]

It looks like we aren't repeating either one.

Looks like you're speaking too soon.

[600watt]

as long as we are repeating them all anyway i don´t care in which order...

[RationalSpeculator]

wishful thinking

you might be proven right, or wrong

no decent argument detected

next please

 

[derpinheimer]

It looks like we aren't repeating either one.

Looks like you're speaking too soon.

Why would we see a repeat of one of 2 options? Its highly unlikely for this to be like either of the past two "major price events"

If it is, interesting.

But to say that "Hey it looks kinda like XXXX, therefore we should see this.." is stupid as hell. All market action looks like something in the past until a point.

[rampantparanoia]

We're not repeating anything, because this is the only year in which a major exchange is having money problems.

[MAbtc]

We're not repeating anything, because this is the only year in which a major exchange is having money problems.

This is a good point.

[ajw7989]

Never say never we may drop below 100 at some point if bitcoin crashes for whatever reason especially if it becomes centralized

[zby]

It all depends on how the MtGox withdrawal problem ends.

[matt608]

You're right the rise this year was bigger, and the plateau may be a bit longer, but there are such promising project on the way namely Buttercoin which I expect will bring the next huge price rise closer to the shorter end of your estimate - in about 6 months.

[TERA]

The rise of 2013 was much higher than the rise of 2012.  Some people keep speaking of the obvious "line" on the log chart. However I am having trouble finding this line and in fact I can draw several lines which would allow btc to go much lower than it is now before going up again. I have plotted a couple for reference.



The low volume and the lack of significant bid depth on mtgox that continues to fail to fill in above 125 seems to confirm my suspicion that it isn't ready to go higher at this point. I think this ordeal with the bid depth was an inflection point for this Jul-Aug rally.  

[RationalSpeculator]

The rise of 2013 was much higher than the rise of 2012.  Some people keep speaking of the obvious "line" on the log chart. However I am having trouble finding this line and in fact I can draw several lines which would allow btc to go much lower than it is now before going up again. I have plotted a couple for reference.



The low volume and the lack of significant bid depth on mtgox that continues to fail to fill in above 125 seems to confirm my suspicion that it isn't ready to go higher at this point. I think this ordeal with the bid depth was an inflection point for this Jul-Aug rally.  

I think your post is a very good one TERA.

Indeed the long term growth line points to lower prices.

If you draw this line from the start in 2010, prices will not fall that deep ($80). But if you draw this line from 2011 prices will fall very deep ($40).

The question is: will percentage growth continue to be the same, will it go down, or will it go up?

In the past it has gone down. As you can see in above chart percentage growth was a lot steeper/higher in 2010 than in 2011/2012/2013. This means, it will likely continue to fall which is logical. It's much easier to tenfold when you have 1000 users, then when you have 100,000 users.

So we should look at the line starting in 2011 which indicates prices will fall to $40. And that only if the percentage growth does NOT go down compared to 2011, which is questionable. It may very well be that growth will end up being less in 2013 compared to 2011 and a new line will need to be drawn in the future. In that case price may hit $20. Ofcourse these are lows that are only reached once and no one will be able to buy there. But the price will hover just above it for a month or so.

Ofcourse due to the very small market cap there is always a small chance for a black swan (irrational billionaires, economy collapse, illegalization of bitcoin, ...) and price growth instead accelerates and the low was $65 2 months back.  But since this is not based on historical price growth of bitcoin chances are low.

So I think it is wise to not be all in. But also to not be all out.

[RationalSpeculator]

Nobody responding to my great argument right above here why price will likely go down. Anyone sees holes in my reasoning?

[rampantparanoia]

The question is: will percentage growth continue to be the same, will it go down, or will it go up?

If bitcoin is meant to be a currency, and not a roller coaster ride from one of the Final Destination movies, it will grow at a steady pace - which means it must either drop first, or start steady growth from its current point.

[thezerg]

Nobody responding to my great argument right above here why price will likely go down. Anyone sees holes in my reasoning?

Product adoption is an "S" curve like the yellow line here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diffusion_of_innovations

[Odalv]

Nobody responding to my great argument right above here why price will likely go down. Anyone sees holes in my reasoning?

Product adoption is an "S" curve like the yellow line here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diffusion_of_innovations

But we are still at level below 0.1%. (where is 2.5%) :-)