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Author Topic: Nothing important has ever been built without "irrational exuberance"  (Read 41 times)
paxmao
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February 14, 2018, 04:29:57 PM
 #1

Do this sentences sound familiar to you:

“..much of the capital invested was lost, but also much of it was invested in a very high throughput backbone for the Internet, and lots of software that works, and databases and server structure. All that stuff has allowed what we have today, which has changed all our lives... that's what all this speculative mania built”

'Nothing important has ever been built without irrational exuberance" - Fred Wilson (VC) quoting a friend
.

These two are excerpts of the “Dot Com” bubble. From from 1997 to 2001, an “irrational exuberance” on venture capital investment created what we know today as the Internet.

On March 10, 2000, the NASDAQ Composite peaked at 5,132.52, but fell 78% in the following 30 months.

Although their stock prices declined significantly, 48% of dot-com companies survived through 2004.[14] Many companies, even those who were categorized as the "small players", were adequate enough to endure the stock market drop of 2000–2002.[14] Retail investors who felt burned by the burst transitioned their investment portfolios to more cautious positions.

Business Memorabilia:

Broadcast.com - A streaming media website that was acquired by Yahoo! for $5.9 billion in stock, making Mark Cuban and Todd Wagner multi-billionaires. The site is now defunct.

GeoCities - Purchased by Yahoo! for $3.57 billion in January 1999[39] and was shut down in 2009
The Learning Company - Bought by Mattel in 1999 for $3.5 billion; sold for $27.3 million in 2000


Any comment? 

(Information from Wikipedia, a bit changed for better reading)

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February 14, 2018, 05:37:57 PM
 #2

This is spot on. Anything that is revolutionary goes through massive price discovery bubbles in which wealths are created (and destroyed, as FOMOers are the ones that will most likely panic sell at a loss).

What matters are the long term winners. Sure, the dotcom bubble popped... but the long term winners are the ones that really made Billionaires. Ask anyone that held their Amazon stock through the crash until today, and Bitcoin IS the long term winner.
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February 14, 2018, 05:45:53 PM
 #3

The dot-com bubble was and probably the cryptocurrency market will be like operating in some sort of a gold mine. There's great riches to be found but so many will waste time and money trying to find those riches and ultimately end up with nothing. If you're one of the lucky or skillful ones who can find the right spot to mine or the right currency/stock to hold on to then you can come out of these speculative times with a better future for yourself.

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February 14, 2018, 06:30:08 PM
 #4

Basically all this says to me is that 99% of the projects in crypto right now will fail, and after that there will emerge a handful of beast like players. I look forward to welcoming the new era of Google, Apple, and Amazon.

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February 14, 2018, 07:24:35 PM
 #5

Basically all this says to me is that 99% of the projects in crypto right now will fail, and after that there will emerge a handful of beast like players. I look forward to welcoming the new era of Google, Apple, and Amazon.

There's an inevitability about this. When you stop to actually think about it, just how many successful cryptocurrencies are there really a space for in the world? It's definitely far less than the amount we currently have. There will come a time when there will just be a few dominant cryptos who compete with one another and no others will come close to them.

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February 14, 2018, 07:26:53 PM
 #6

The technology is advancing and changing really fast. The is die-off of old technology and implementation of new technology going on. Off course the ride will be pretty turbulent.

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February 14, 2018, 07:55:29 PM
 #7

What matters are the long term winners. Sure, the dotcom bubble popped... but the long term winners are the ones that really made Billionaires. Ask anyone that held their Amazon stock through the crash until today, and Bitcoin IS the long term winner.

Long term winners (holders) don't sell at all, even not if it can make them a decent bit of profit in the shorter term. If we talk about the very early birds here in this market, then it's safe to say that there at least are a handful of billionaires that are more or less known. Those that are known and unknown will continue to see their wealth increase, and that still without having sold anything. In terms of the Winklevoss twins it's known that they haven't sold anything yet, which stimulates me to do the same. You know what the best part is? It's the fact that if you believe that Bitcoin has the potential to reach $100k at some point, and I definitely believe in this, it makes absolutely no sense to sell anything at current levels. The Winklevoss twins even talk about $300k, which says enough....
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February 14, 2018, 11:23:23 PM
 #8

Basically all this says to me is that 99% of the projects in crypto right now will fail, and after that there will emerge a handful of beast like players. I look forward to welcoming the new era of Google, Apple, and Amazon.
There are more than 1500 coins at coinmarketcap, even at a failure rate of 99% this means 15 coins will make it big, this is enough, you only need to pick one of those coins and become a millionaire, the most obvious is bitcoin but there are some other coins which have a great future and that are good investments, coins like Monero, Dash and ETH are contenders to become big in the future and should be in the portfolio of every investor.

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February 15, 2018, 02:34:31 AM
 #9

What matters are the long term winners. Sure, the dotcom bubble popped... but the long term winners are the ones that really made Billionaires. Ask anyone that held their Amazon stock through the crash until today, and Bitcoin IS the long term winner.

Long term winners (holders) don't sell at all, even not if it can make them a decent bit of profit in the shorter term. If we talk about the very early birds here in this market, then it's safe to say that there at least are a handful of billionaires that are more or less known. Those that are known and unknown will continue to see their wealth increase, and that still without having sold anything. In terms of the Winklevoss twins it's known that they haven't sold anything yet, which stimulates me to do the same. You know what the best part is? It's the fact that if you believe that Bitcoin has the potential to reach $100k at some point, and I definitely believe in this, it makes absolutely no sense to sell anything at current levels. The Winklevoss twins even talk about $300k, which says enough....

What does this say of what will happen when large well known investors like the Winklevoss twins eventually decide to sell? Could we not see a situation where that causes panic in the market as people have an attitude along the lines of 'is there something they know that we don't'?

There surely comes a time for the majority of investors where they will be willing to sell. That amount will differ from individual to individual but I feel that eventually weighing up the benefits of holding a while longer and maybe gaining a few more thousands or millions will be outweighed by the benefits that the thousands or millions you could have would be able to provide.

Please tell me if your personal opinion is different to that, I just find it very hard to believe that for an every day person there's not a price at which they'd be willing to sell out.
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