ASIC manufacturers " thinking outloud"

[mmitech]

 OK, I am always watching for new prototypes, just a couple of hours ago, CryptX burnins partner opened on their online store to offer the Bitbar fury prototype for first week of October delivery, It is so cool right ? wait till you see the price....

 Again an overpriced Product which is totally disappointing, Burnin stated that the prototype will cost around 470€ - less than 5BTC at today exchange price, but again companies want to take advantage and suck the blood out of miners, they expect us to take all the losses, and they are so comfortable to make an exaggerated profits over all of us.

 that been said , I am starting to think that the medium and small miners will start getting out of the mining game very soon, which will lead big companies ( manufacturers) to opening their own mining operation, the same like ASICMINER, we will see few big companies like that controlling the network with their hash power(not good) this is exactly what we call a centralization of the network hash power, which can be a threat not only for end users but to everyone, this will even drive to a competition between them, which will lead to even more instability of Bitcoin price.

I am just thinking out loud, I do not know what will happen till the end of the year, but I am sure it will get more interesting, most of calculator I was using is showing a negative income for most existing or to exist prototypes, and Investing in a pre-order now is like investing in the Unknown.

thinking about the pricing of first Batch avalon and first BFL products, when 60 Gh/s was offered for around 1300$, makes me question all offers from these new manufacturers..... 

I really want to hear what do you think ? what kind of scenarios we are expecting ?   

   

[androz]

 that been said , I am starting to think that the medium and small miners will start getting out of the mining game very soon, which will lead big companies ( manufacturers) to opening their own mining operation, the same like ASICMINER, we will see few big companies like that controlling the network with their hash power(not good) this is exactly what we call a centralization of the network hash power, which can be a threat not only for end users but to everyone, this will even drive to a competition between them, which will lead to even more instability of Bitcoin price.


I really want to hear what do you think ? what kind of scenarios we are expecting ?   

   

small time miners have already gave up; new miners r scared .

just some months ago i was eager to buy some device but right now i understood that i'll never get roi

mining unfortunately is going to be hardly centralized, but i fear the break point when mining will be not much profitable even for the big players

[af_newbie]

OK, I am always watching for new prototypes, just a couple of hours ago, CryptX burnins partner opened on their online store to offer the Bitbar fury prototype for first week of October delivery, It is so cool right ? wait till you see the price....

 Again an overpriced Product which is totally disappointing, Burnin stated that the prototype will cost around 470€ - less than 5BTC at today exchange price, but again companies want to take advantage and suck the blood out of miners, they expect us to take all the losses, and they are so comfortable to make an exaggerated profits over all of us.

 that been said , I am starting to think that the medium and small miners will start getting out of the mining game very soon, which will lead big companies ( manufacturers) to opening their own mining operation, the same like ASICMINER, we will see few big companies like that controlling the network with their hash power(not good) this is exactly what we call a centralization of the network hash power, which can be a threat not only for end users but to everyone, this will even drive to a competition between them, which will lead to even more instability of Bitcoin price.

I am just thinking out loud, I do not know what will happen till the end of the year, but I am sure it will get more interesting, most of calculator I was using is showing a negative income for most existing or to exist prototypes, and Investing in a pre-order now is like investing in the Unknown.

thinking about the pricing of first Batch avalon and first BFL products, when 60 Gh/s was offered for around 1300$, makes me question all offers from these new manufacturers..... 

I really want to hear what do you think ? what kind of scenarios we are expecting ?   

You are absolutely right.  Look what happened to bitfury.  Retail miners are just a side show, sold minuscule hashing power to retail.   ghash.io, mbp etc. are mining big time, and will only sell to retail at overpriced levels or late enough to provide 50% ROI if that.  Same will happen with all others that will come along.

I suspect in 6 months to a year, the ASIC war will be over.  One or two most energy efficient designs will be used to control 90% of the network.
And retail will be controlling 10%, the other 90% will be in the hands of few big companies.  Look at the rate ghash.io is making money.  They mine two, three blocks every hour or so. Say 50 blocks/day, that is BTC1250/day or 160K/day,  you think they will not have the resources to design another 14nm chip to take over the 50% of hashing power.  Easy.

[shapemaker]

Things are starting to look bleak for the small/medium sized miners for sure.

Burnin was my last hope of seeing a reasonably priced product for the small guys. Sad to see greed took over there too

So much potential, so much wasted...

[eraziel]

It seems like the bitburners are going to be my first and last ASIC miners the way things are going.
I was really looking forward to getting ~200Ghash for 2k eur.
I guess not.
Good luck with your business burnin, CryptX. (and everyone else)

[AndrewWilliams]

OK, I am always watching for new prototypes, just a couple of hours ago, CryptX burnins partner opened on their online store to offer the Bitbar fury prototype for first week of October delivery, It is so cool right ? wait till you see the price....

 Again an overpriced Product which is totally disappointing, Burnin stated that the prototype will cost around 470€ - less than 5BTC at today exchange price, but again companies want to take advantage and suck the blood out of miners, they expect us to take all the losses, and they are so comfortable to make an exaggerated profits over all of us.

 that been said , I am starting to think that the medium and small miners will start getting out of the mining game very soon, which will lead big companies ( manufacturers) to opening their own mining operation, the same like ASICMINER, we will see few big companies like that controlling the network with their hash power(not good) this is exactly what we call a centralization of the network hash power, which can be a threat not only for end users but to everyone, this will even drive to a competition between them, which will lead to even more instability of Bitcoin price.

I am just thinking out loud, I do not know what will happen till the end of the year, but I am sure it will get more interesting, most of calculator I was using is showing a negative income for most existing or to exist prototypes, and Investing in a pre-order now is like investing in the Unknown.

thinking about the pricing of first Batch avalon and first BFL products, when 60 Gh/s was offered for around 1300$, makes me question all offers from these new manufacturers..... 

I really want to hear what do you think ? what kind of scenarios we are expecting ?   

You are absolutely right.  Look what happened to bitfury.  Retail miners are just a side show, sold minuscule hashing power to retail.   ghash.io, mbp etc. are mining big time, and will only sell to retail at overpriced levels or late enough to provide 50% ROI if that.  Same will happen with all others that will come along.

I suspect in 6 months to a year, the ASIC war will be over.  One or two most energy efficient designs will be used to control 90% of the network.
And retail will be controlling 10%, the other 90% will be in the hands of few big companies.  Look at the rate ghash.io is making money.  They mine two, three blocks every hour or so. Say 50 blocks/day, that is BTC1250/day or 160K/day,  you think they will not have the resources to design another 14nm chip to take over the 50% of hashing power.  Easy.

Holy #@$%!

$125 to $160K a day?      What do you think their level of investment in hardware is?

Wow, what did it take to make that happen? If I took $300K and bought ASIC miners, would I be doing it big enough to turn profit? Or, is the whole "problem" procuring the miners faster than everyone else? Do you think I would be benefited by a trip to China for some one on one negotiation with some ASIC manufacturers, and get a container of ASIC's shipped over here to the USA?

I'll do it if it has a good chance of working. I have gone to China before to source other products, so I am not intimidated.

[RoadStress]

Things are starting to look bleak for the small/medium sized miners for sure.

Burnin was my last hope of seeing a reasonably priced product for the small guys. Sad to see greed took over there too

So much potential, so much wasted...

It was my hope too, but no problem we just move on to CoinCraft or Cointerra

[gusti]

So, if mining is consolidating into a few big players, maybe anybody can tell me why BTCGUILD is still so strong.

[shapemaker]

So, if mining is consolidating into a few big players, maybe anybody can tell me why BTCGUILD is still so strong.

Just wait when the big operations come online this and the next month...

[ajw7989]

So, if mining is consolidating into a few big players, maybe anybody can tell me why BTCGUILD is still so strong.

Wait until all the new rigs come out like cointerra. Also keep in mind the difficulty has not leveled off yet and is far from it when it does we will see the results of the centralized in full effect

[gusti]

So, if mining is consolidating into a few big players, maybe anybody can tell me why BTCGUILD is still so strong.

Wait until all the new rigs come out like cointerra. Also keep in mind the difficulty has not leveled off yet and is far from it when it does we will see the results of the centralized in full effect

I will wait and see, but by now the mentioned consolidation, is only speculation.

[mmitech]

So, if mining is consolidating into a few big players, maybe anybody can tell me why BTCGUILD is still so strong.

Wait until all the new rigs come out like cointerra. Also keep in mind the difficulty has not leveled off yet and is far from it when it does we will see the results of the centralized in full effect

I will wait and see, but by now the mentioned consolidation, is only speculation.

I know I am not buying at these prices and I know most miners are thinking the same... in one point you will realize that miners who did pre-order these prototypes were only financing the start of the mining operation for these manufacturers, you are giving them only a push but when they have the capital to pay for their own operation they wont need you anymore.. they will build the next mining prototype and keep it for their selves or sell it for a price which making ROI will be a dream.

 you can ask me "well it is a money printing machine, what are you complaining about?", well  first we have to define what is a money printing machine:
If you invest XBTC you expect to get YBTC after (put the numbe here) months, to call that machine a money printing machine this condition must be fulfilled Y>X, if they can make this their selves they wont sell you that machine or they will sell you at a high price that you think that they are thinking about network decentralization. but no they are not

[AndrewWilliams]

So, if mining is consolidating into a few big players, maybe anybody can tell me why BTCGUILD is still so strong.

Wait until all the new rigs come out like cointerra. Also keep in mind the difficulty has not leveled off yet and is far from it when it does we will see the results of the centralized in full effect

I will wait and see, but by now the mentioned consolidation, is only speculation.

I know I am not buying at these prices and I know most miners are thinking the same... in one point you will realize that miners who did pre-order these prototypes were only financing the start of the mining operation for these manufacturers, you are giving them only a push but when they have the capital to pay for their own operation they wont need you anymore.. they will build the next mining prototype and keep it for their selves or sell it for a price which making ROI will be a dream.

 you can ask me "well it is a money printing machine, what are you complaining about?", well  first we have to define what is a money printing machine:
If you invest XBTC you expect to get YBTC after (put the numbe here) months, to call that machine a money printing machine this condition must be fulfilled Y>X, if they can make this their selves they wont sell you that machine or they will sell you at a high price that you think that they are thinking about network decentralization. but no the are not

May we coin the term, "ASIC inflation?"

[johnyj]

Centralized mining is suicide, as soon as some one took over more than 50% of network, the bitcoin's promise of decentralization will brake and the security for any new transaction will become a huge problem, thus the coin's exchange rate will crash, why some ASIC manufacturers would like to achieve that?

I foresee 4-7 large ASIC device manufacturers share the market, but they would rather sell the equipment instead of mine by themselves. Lots of their cost must be paid with fiat money, if they sell those mined coins to pay for it, they will crash the exchange rate and hurt their own profit and future sale

[Bicknellski]

The small and medium sized miners will have to work collectively. That will cut down costs and provide them with many years of life in mining given there are chips with which you can base projects on.

[Searing]

The small and medium sized miners will have to work collectively. That will cut down costs and provide them with many years of life in mining given there are chips with which you can base projects on.

Not trying to be a smart ass here...but how would such a collaboration of small miners work...ipo's .....co-op....I know the American farmer (the real dirt kind) had these issues and n made co-ops out in the boonies to get elec and grain moving etc..to compete against corp farmers in the early 20th century even before the dust bowl...but how something like that comes to be I've no idea....but yeah some kinda pooling of small miners is proably the only hope...

[Nemo1024]

...or small to medium miners could move over to Zetacoin, which, while utilising SHA-256, has fast confirmation times, frequent difficulty retargeting and (slightly) inflationary economics model. All of this should be more appealing to e-commerce than BTC.

I wrote a small essay on it in another thread:

There are several things that I like about Zetacoin that have the potential for wide acceptance in e-commerce.

The most common rebuke against BTC is: "But do I have to wait for 15 minutes in the groceries store before they will let me out of the door if I buy a loaf of bread with BTC?" Zetacoin's fast confirmation solves this.

The second most common question could be formulated as: "That loaf of bread cost me 0.000017863442BTC. Say again?!" Humans (at least of the non-engineering persuasion) are bad with fractions. They like round numbers, so a statement of "I paid 312 ZET for a loaf of bread." would sit much better with an average consumer.

The fact that Zetacoin utilises SHA-256 has the potential of making it more secure than any scrypt-based coin, if even a fraction of ASICs turn their attention to ZET. GPU rigs were mostly driven by BTC enthusiasts, and as the era ASICs is coming on full power, the GPU rigs will be only operated by scrypt enthusiasts, with the majority of rigs being turned off and sold to gamers. In this climate, Zetacoin would be well-positioned to ride the wave of change.

I have no doubt that Bitcoin will live on strong in that overused gold analogy.
However, we are still in search of a day-to-day small-change payment medium, and Zetacoin might be it.