What happens after the last coin is mined?

[OldGeek]

I realize that asking folks to peer into the murky future is inviting a lot of wild speculation.  However, speculation about future event possibilities can sometimes spark innovative ideas.  At the risk of drowning in a sea of ridicule, I ask these questions:

1.   What will all of the monster hashing machines do after the last coin is mined?
2.   What will the peer-to-peer network be doing?
3.   What are the large holders going to do with their massive collections of BTC?

Looking forward to some interesting ideas.

/Frank

[cryptocyprus]

I realize that asking folks to peer into the murky future is inviting a lot of wild speculation.  However, speculation about future event possibilities can sometimes spark innovative ideas.  At the risk of drowning in a sea of ridicule, I ask these questions:

1.   What will all of the monster hashing machines do after the last coin is mined?
2.   What will the peer-to-peer network be doing?
3.   What are the large holders going to do with their massive collections of BTC?

Looking forward to some interesting ideas.

/Frank

By this time there will be sufficient transaction volumes to provide miners with a greater income derived from mining fees over new block rewards.

By 2140 when the last of the 21 million are mined, the entire 21 million will be distributed amongst millions of people (only if mass adoption occurs).

[Realpra]

I realize that asking folks to peer into the murky future is inviting a lot of wild speculation.  However, speculation about future event possibilities can sometimes spark innovative ideas.  At the risk of drowning in a sea of ridicule, I ask these questions:

1.   What will all of the monster hashing machines do after the last coin is mined?
2.   What will the peer-to-peer network be doing?
3.   What are the large holders going to do with their massive collections of BTC?

Looking forward to some interesting ideas.

/Frank

Nothing will change in short. There will be less mining though and Bitcoin will be supported only with tx fees, however BTC will continue to function and be used.
The mining machines will still be useful for getting these fees and securing the network however. Mining will likely be very professional and centralized by then.

[OldGeek]

By 2140 when the last of the 21 million are mined, the entire 21 million will be distributed amongst millions of people (only if mass adoption occurs).

If you believe that the Pareto principle will apply to bitcoin, then 80% of the total 21 millions will be controlled by 20% of all holders.  That leaves open the question of what this 20% intend to do with their holdings.

Nothing will change in short. There will be less mining though and Bitcoin will be supported only with tx fees, however BTC will continue to function and be used.
The mining machines will still be useful for getting these fees and securing the network however. Mining will likely be very professional and centralized by then.

The supposition that transaction fees will be a substantial inducement to continue running hashing machines is interesting.  There seems to be an assumption that there will be a sufficient number of transactions to support the system.  I don’t have a clue about the basis of these assumptions, so please educate me.

/Frank

[Jace]

I realize that asking folks to peer into the murky future is inviting a lot of wild speculation.  However, speculation about future event possibilities can sometimes spark innovative ideas.  At the risk of drowning in a sea of ridicule, I ask these questions:

1.   What will all of the monster hashing machines do after the last coin is mined?

The last coin will never be mined (see also).

But even if it would, mining would still continue as normal, as new blocks would still be mined. They just wouldn't generate any new bitcoins, but it will remain profitable for people to keep mining nonetheless, for the transaction fees.
In fact, long before this last coin would be mined (which is never, but for argument's sake) the block reward (i.e. generation of new bitcoins) is already becoming insignificant compared to the transaction fees.

2.   What will the peer-to-peer network be doing?

Same as now.

3.   What are the large holders going to do with their massive collections of BTC?

Same as now. And same as large holders of massive collections of Euros, Dollars or gold.. Live in wealth, and spend it on hookers and coke, I suppose.

[notme]

By 2140 when the last of the 21 million are mined, the entire 21 million will be distributed amongst millions of people (only if mass adoption occurs).

If you believe that the Pareto principle will apply to bitcoin, then 80% of the total 21 millions will be controlled by 20% of all holders.  That leaves open the question of what this 20% intend to do with their holdings.

Nothing will change in short. There will be less mining though and Bitcoin will be supported only with tx fees, however BTC will continue to function and be used.
The mining machines will still be useful for getting these fees and securing the network however. Mining will likely be very professional and centralized by then.

The supposition that transaction fees will be a substantial inducement to continue running hashing machines is interesting.  There seems to be an assumption that there will be a sufficient number of transactions to support the system.  I don’t have a clue about the basis of these assumptions, so please educate me.

/Frank

Number of Transactions:
http://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions?timespan=all&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

Transaction Fees:
http://blockchain.info/charts/transaction-fees?timespan=all&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

[polrpaul]

everyone already answered your question, but:

transactions, transactions, transactions

[Remember remember the 5th of November]

How about a different question. How many transactions can Bitcoin support before wrapping back to 0?

[polrpaul]

How about a different question. How many transactions can Bitcoin support before wrapping back to 0?

Restate question?

Besides, IDGAF.

[notme]

How about a different question. How many transactions can Bitcoin support before wrapping back to 0?

They are not indexed by integers, but by the transaction id, which has enough bits for everyone on earth to send everyone on earth 1 bitcoin 21,000,000 times.... and then do it over again 1.1252x10^50 times.

[dserrano5]

How about a different question. How many transactions can Bitcoin support before wrapping back to 0?

I can see this thread quickly degrading down into yet another block size one…

[MAbtc]

Any speculation as to what the rules for transaction fees will look like?

[Jace]

How about a different question. How many transactions can Bitcoin support before wrapping back to 0?

Infinite.

[OldGeek]

Number of Transactions:
http://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions?timespan=all&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

Transaction Fees:
http://blockchain.info/charts/transaction-fees?timespan=all&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

Thanks for the links.  The charts are interesting but still don't give me a basis for establishing a future of transaction fees. 

For example, suppose that most of the transactions that are happening right now are directly related to individuals using BTC to purchase mining equipment.  I don't know if this is a valid assumption but if it is then the number of transactions will decrease substantially once the demand for equipment eases.  If the number of transactions decreases will not the fees decrease?

/Frank

[will1982]

Transaction fees will support the small amount of miners

[marcotheminer]

I think mining will stop but transactions will continue.
Not sure

[OldGeek]

I can see this thread quickly degrading down into yet another block size one…

Oh, I hope not.  I'm really interested in the speculations.  Someone surely has more than just hope and trust.

/Frank

[notme]

Number of Transactions:
http://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions?timespan=all&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

Transaction Fees:
http://blockchain.info/charts/transaction-fees?timespan=all&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

Thanks for the links.  The charts are interesting but still don't give me a basis for establishing a future of transaction fees. 

For example, suppose that most of the transactions that are happening right now are directly related to individuals using BTC to purchase mining equipment.  I don't know if this is a valid assumption but if it is then the number of transactions will decrease substantially once the demand for equipment eases.  If the number of transactions decreases will not the fees decrease?

/Frank

You can never get all the details correct.  You'll just end up stacking guesses on guesses.

However, it doesn't really matter since the stable point is where fees just barely cover expenses for miners.  The most efficient will profit slightly and the rest will lose.  The network will adjust to make sure this is how it plays out once we get past ASIC adoption.

[murraypaul]

For example, suppose that most of the transactions that are happening right now are directly related to individuals using BTC to purchase mining equipment. 

At the moment, most of the transactions are gambling.

[SheHadMANHands]