CROWD FUNDING ASIC

[papamoi]

i m opening the same thread in securities

i hope people will have more access on this

Who would be doing the pcb for this?

details of the chip will be provided so anyone would be able to make a pcb as it suits them

[1715305085]

1715305085

[1715305085]

1715305085

[iikun]

i m opening the same thread in securities

i hope people will have more access on this

Who would be doing the pcb for this?

details of the chip will be provided so anyone would be able to make a pcb as it suits them

which most people don't have the skills for of course. good luck tho

[papamoi]

i m opening the same thread in securities

i hope people will have more access on this

Who would be doing the pcb for this?

details of the chip will be provided so anyone would be able to make a pcb as it suits them

for 900k why not buy 10k coincraft A1, or whatever else turns up on market as real,working product in X weeks
the proposed crowd fund is a nice idea, but it's late in the game
risk/ reward ratio is not  attractive enough

again difference here is that you ll be part of the project and not customers only and you ll get chip at costs price(after the mask being paid)

there is huge difference between this project and just throwing money to some company to buy their miners

[papamoi]

this is a draft of the lay out of the chip

[eve]

some kind of middle and western or new age art work, very artistic though, I like the flowers and the trunks and vine and some leaves in between, I could draw and paint  a nicer one if you let me.

[papamoi]

Please feel free to pm if anyone is interested

thanks

[papamoi]

hi guys

i m receiving more advices than real interests in the project

i mentionning it again here,we would be able to go alone on this and sell chips with better profit ,instead we have decided to share the risk and try to sell the chip at costs price to those who will invest with us.

this is not a preorder or else project but a partnership

i hope more interested people will be in it

thanks

[Bicknellski]

This user has REAL interest in this project.

It could be integrate nicely with this proposal: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=294551.msg3157477#msg3157477 in a 2nd or 3rd iteration.

[eve]

hi guys

i m receiving more advices than real interests in the project

i mentionning it again here,we would be able to go alone on this and sell chips with better profit ,instead we have decided to share the risk and try to sell the chip at costs price to those who will invest with us.

this is not a preorder or else project but a partnership

i hope more interested people will be in it

thanks

go on your own. others not interested. you got the money and talent why need us.

[papamoi]

This user has REAL interest in this project.

It could be integrate nicely with this proposal: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=294551.msg3157477#msg3157477 in a 2nd or 3rd iteration.

well in your project you re starting with already bought chips.

here we start from almost scratch

[papamoi]

hi guys

i m receiving more advices than real interests in the project

i mentionning it again here,we would be able to go alone on this and sell chips with better profit ,instead we have decided to share the risk and try to sell the chip at costs price to those who will invest with us.

this is not a preorder or else project but a partnership

i hope more interested people will be in it

thanks

go on your own. others not interested. you got the money and talent why need us.

we still need trolls like you to make everyone happy

there is a french quote saying
il faut de tout pour faire un monde

meaning we need people like you and people like us to make it work

[CoinHoarder]

Why not IPO?

[papamoi]

Why not IPO?

i didn t wanted to go this way as i find it complicate plus i was aiming to find 10/20 investors in order to get things interesting and manageable.

 but if you have some knowledge on this and preparing all the paperwork for this

why not?

[Bicknellski]

This user has REAL interest in this project.

It could be integrate nicely with this proposal: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=294551.msg3157477#msg3157477 in a 2nd or 3rd iteration.

well in your project you re starting with already bought chips.

here we start from almost scratch

The "board" we are designing is the 'from scratch' part... possibly when you are ready we can work this crowd funded chip into the design as well. We love the idea of using something that is community based and could marry into the open hardware design we are proposing.

[Puppet]

Do you think a for profit company that would start its design from scratch today, tape out next spring and have products next summer (at the earliest) stands a good chance of earning back its NRE? I very much doubt it. If a for profit company cant, I dont see why you think a cooperative can.

Why do I doubt it? We are now at what,  10 companies working on 28nm designs? You may be shocked by the premiums they are asking for preorders, but those prices are simply a result of myopic miners and  the current low difficulty. Prices will just follow difficulty (+whatever reckless/clueless miners are willing to lose) and difficulty will follow asic pricing. Thats a feedback loop. The result is prices will plummet very very fast (as will profitability per GH). This would be true if there was just one supplier, but with a dozen that are all racing to lock in orders this will happen as fast as these companies combined can produce asics. Unless they are all even more inept than BFL, by the time you reach the market with a product, you will have to compete against 10 companies that have already recovered their NRE and are dumping chips and preorders on to a saturated market for prices barely above marginal cost, a tiny fraction of what they are today. You wont stand a chance recovering your investment.

Even if Im wrong about that, what could you possibly achieve? Assume you would be ready today, and you would be selling chips at cost (which means ~50x lower than current asic prices). What would happen? First off, you will be swamped by orders and you would never be able to fulfill them. Even if you could supply a massive amount, you would just push up difficulty tremendously, accelerating the scenario I described above. Sure, you would lower asic prices even faster than they would otherwise, but profitability would evaporate equally fast due to the D. You gain the community nothing.

There is only one "problem" right now with these asics; miners arent doing the math, or are deluded and are willing to pay far more than whats good for them. Thats the only reason prices are what they are. If miners wouldnt be willing to pay them, they would drop, simple as that. I dont see how you can fix this problem by producing yet another asic. Providing cheap asics wont solve it, it would just result in even more miners expecting windfall profits. In fact it might make the problem worse; if miners cant figure out today that $3/GH in January is a loss, how will they understand that $0.2/GH is a loss? And it will be a loss if you could supply those chips on time to everyone that wants them, since you havent solved the fundamental problem of miners overbuying, you just provide them another way to overbuy. And if you cant deliver on that demand, you will just become another BFL.

[eve]

easy friend, you know they are promoting their product or group buys etc, yes not easy to make a chip, since you are almost done and have your own funding, just do it yourself.

[papamoi]

hi puppet

i ve read briefly as it was too long,

general idea is to sell the chips to our investors at costs price but not to all customers.

our investors will have a limited supply on the first run and on the second one.

From there,they will have a discount price and would be able to act as exclusive wholesaler or whatever they wish to do with their chips.

Normal customers will pay normal price.

i do not intended to flood the market with my chips but idea is to make it affordable and viable for my investors and be able to compete on what will come available in the market.

as every plan there is as much chance that we fail than we succeed on this.

i m ready to take this risk .if there are people ready to do so it l ll be great if there is no then we ll find another way to do it.

Risk is present in every business venture so it s not for people who are waiting to make a safe investment.


i m trying to make it very transparent and i m repeating again , i m working on this since march/april but have put on hold as i ve got an agreement with bitfury and he decide not to respect his comitment  that why i ve got delayed.


thanks for reading and give me the opportunity to explain reasons ,ideas and why i m trying to do this

[chip_painter]

Do you think a for profit company that would start its design from scratch today, tape out next spring and have products next summer (at the earliest) stands a good chance of earning back its NRE? I very much doubt it. If a for profit company cant, I dont see why you think a cooperative can.

Why do I doubt it? We are now at what,  10 companies working on 28nm designs? You may be shocked by the premiums they are asking for preorders, but those prices are simply a result of myopic miners and  the current low difficulty. Prices will just follow difficulty (+whatever reckless/clueless miners are willing to lose) and difficulty will follow asic pricing. Thats a feedback loop. The result is prices will plummet very very fast (as will profitability per GH). This would be true if there was just one supplier, but with a dozen that are all racing to lock in orders this will happen as fast as these companies combined can produce asics. Unless they are all even more inept than BFL, by the time you reach the market with a product, you will have to compete against 10 companies that have already recovered their NRE and are dumping chips and preorders on to a saturated market for prices barely above marginal cost, a tiny fraction of what they are today. You wont stand a chance recovering your investment.

Even if Im wrong about that, what could you possibly achieve? Assume you would be ready today, and you would be selling chips at cost (which means ~50x lower than current asic prices). What would happen? First off, you will be swamped by orders and you would never be able to fulfill them. Even if you could supply a massive amount, you would just push up difficulty tremendously, accelerating the scenario I described above. Sure, you would lower asic prices even faster than they would otherwise, but profitability would evaporate equally fast due to the D. You gain the community nothing.

There is only one "problem" right now with these asics; miners arent doing the math, or are deluded and are willing to pay far more than whats good for them. Thats the only reason prices are what they are. If miners wouldnt be willing to pay them, they would drop, simple as that. I dont see how you can fix this problem by producing yet another asic. Providing cheap asics wont solve it, it would just result in even more miners expecting windfall profits. In fact it might make the problem worse; if miners cant figure out today that $3/GH in January is a loss, how will they understand that $0.2/GH is a loss? And it will be a loss if you could supply those chips on time to everyone that wants them, since you havent solved the fundamental problem of miners overbuying, you just provide them another way to overbuy. And if you cant deliver on that demand, you will just become another BFL.

It is still profitable, since no one is willing to opensource the design of the chip. And I think it will be profitable for a long time...

[Puppet]

It is still profitable, since no one is willing to opensource the design of the chip. And I think it will be profitable for a long time...

Whats open sourcing have to do with it? Of course selling these chips now is extremely lucrative.

As for how long, it only depends on how much these companies can produce. Because they will produce as much as they can for as long as its marginally profitable, and they will sell (or use) anything they produce. Price and difficulty explosion will just be a result of those. 

How fast can this go?  For some perspective, TSMC alone does >1000 28nm wafer starts per day. One wafer equals ~70TH using hashfast's numbers. So one day of TSMC production gives 70PH worth of bitcoin asics, which when deployed,  might be enough to make it no longer profitable to produce more asics as electricity cost might exceed mining revenue at that point. There are at least a dozen other fabs.

Of course asics have to be packaged, mounted, miners assembled and shipped/deployed. Some/many companies will falter there, but it only takes one to get it right. Its entirely feasible by next summer, prices will have plummeted so far, NRE's for new designs cant realistically be recovered and by the end 2014, we might see stagnation in the network when electricity costs put a limit on the hashrate.

[chip_painter]

It is still profitable, since no one is willing to opensource the design of the chip. And I think it will be profitable for a long time...

Whats open sourcing have to do with it? Of course selling these chips now is extremely lucrative.

As for how long, it only depends on how much these companies can produce. Because they will produce as much as they can for as long as its marginally profitable, and they will sell (or use) anything they produce. Price and difficulty explosion will just be a result of those. 

How fast can this go?  For some perspective, TSMC alone does >1000 28nm wafer starts per day. One wafer equals ~70TH using hashfast's numbers. So one day of TSMC production gives 70PH worth of bitcoin asics, which when deployed,  might be enough to make it no longer profitable to produce more asics as electricity cost might exceed mining revenue at that point. There are at least a dozen other fabs.

Of course asics have to be packaged, mounted, miners assembled and shipped/deployed. Some/many companies will falter there, but it only takes one to get it right. Its entirely feasible by next summer, prices will have plummeted so far, NRE's for new designs cant realistically be recovered and by the end 2014, we might see stagnation in the network when electricity costs put a limit on the hashrate.

Let's see what will happen. Also, that means, the bitcoin becomes the new driving force for the semiconductor industry, while it is making 'great' contribution to a greenhouse environment:)   The flaw of the bitcoin system is that a lot of energy is wasted just for getting a control of inflation. Actually a better system can make better use of these energy.