Has 100x ICOs era gone forever?

[Crypto Jaga]

Last year, we saw many good ICOs increased its ICO price more 100x (see a few examples below). Here, the increase was calculated based on All Time High (ATH) somewhere in Dec~Jan time. We also saw many existing cryptos (by early 2017) in top 30~50 increased more than 100x last year (see some examples below).

At the beginning of 2017, there were around 600 cryptos and the total market cap was around $17.5B, and this January, the no. of cryptos increased to more than 1350 and the total market cap was more than $800B (at ATH), which is 45x increase in total market cap.

So, in 2017, people bought many ICOs or those projects at early stages because some of those ideas were new (not launched before). People also chased many existing cryptos. That is why we saw price increases in both ICOs launched in 2017 and the existing cryptos. Except at later part of 2017, many ICOs had hardcap at less than $10m, where as nowadays, we see many ICOs have hardcap around $30-40m (on average), and some even go beyond $100m.

Now I fear that we will never see 100x ICOs as almost every ideas have already been put into blockchain projects, so we may not see new exciting ideas coming. Also, like we saw many existing projects gave 100x gains, now people may look into existing cryptos more than 2017. Also, I dont think we will see more than 10x in whole market from the last ATH. If we were to see similar increase in the whole market, we have to see $30T total market, which I don't think we will see in a year (or within 2 years at least). My realistic goal would be to see around $5~10T market, which is around 6~12x of the last ATH.

I would like to hear your comments on these points.

Q1. based on above facts, do you think we would be better off holding into existing projects than upcoming ICOs? or still this year as well, may some ICOs gain 100x?. Or if 2017 was 100x ICOs, do you think this year would be 10x ICOs?

Q2. Where do you think the total market would be within a year?

Q3. Is there new ideas yet to come to blockchain projects?

Q4. This is quite subjective. Why do you think many ICOs collect huge amount of money? Do they really need these big amounts to start those projects or are they simply greedy? When an ICO has hardcap at $10m, it is much easier to gain 100x (when it reaches $1B mark), but when an ICO has a hardcap at $50m, $1B market cap would give only 20x. Do you think the community (ICO participants) should force ICOs to lower their hardcap?

Q5. Many existing projects still have problems (e.g., scaling issues in bitcoin, ethereum, etc.), so do you think there will be new projects solving them and overtaking these existing projects? or when these existing projects have worked many years, they are definitely miles ahead of new projects, so new projects will have short lives until the existing projects solve them? Everyday I'm seeing many ICOs talking how they are going to solve ethereum scaling issue, but I feel when they (existing projects) have worked more more than 2~3 years, and still finding issues, how a new project would solve them earlier!

Q6. I wouldn't think this would happen, but do you think many governments would regulate crypto ecosystem (to reduce scams projects, money laundering, etc.), but will encourage new innovations such as even 20~40x increase in the whole market is still possible?

I would like to hear many opinions. When I get many ideas, I'll summarise them in a later post. Please take your time and give wonderful ideas.

ICOs in 2017
Ark*         1050x  ($0.9m)
Ethos        370x     ($ ? )
Qtum        350x    ($15m)
Vertiseum 320x    ($6.5)
Neblio       300x    ($2.5)
Populous   270x    ($10m)
Etheroll     120x    ($0.3m)
OmiseGo   110x    ($24m)
Icon          100x    ($43m)
*ICO was in Nov 2016

Already existing cryptos (at the start of 2017)
NEO      1350x
Ripple    570x
NEM      570x
Stellar   390x
Lisk       250x
ETH       170x
DASH    140x
LTC       80x

[adekogbe]

Last year ICOs were the rave of the moment, it was like the wild west and anything can happen.
A lot of ICOs did well last year, not because of how solid the project is or how revolutionary it is but because of the hype, inexperienced people getting into cryptos, and the relative few amount of ICOs being carried out.

This year a lot has changed; people are carrying out more research before making investment in projects, teams are being analyzed properly, and a lot of emphasis is placed on tok-economics..
My Answers
1. Some projects will definitely moon this year too, the 1% of solid projects always find a way to stand out from the crowd, example : zilliqa made a 19x in the first week after hitting exchanges, I definitely see it making a 100x this year.

2. There is still a lot of room for the market to grow as blockchain technology is getting more recognition and acceptance all over the world.

3. Definitely, I have the feeling the next best idea is going to make a lot of waves in the market.

4. I personally don't invest in ICOs with very high hardcaps as it takes a long time yo make reasonable ROI

5. Blockchain technology is still in its infancy stage and there are bound to be a few problems but I believe this will reduce as time goes

6. This right here as been up for a lot of debate recently because there has being an increase in the number of scam projects recently and it bring to mind an idea, instead of the government getting involved, why not develop a smart contract that vets and investigate ICOs and rates them according to some set criteria and gives a rating. This will go a long way in instilling confidence in the crypto universe and help projects.
Government involvement goes against the ideals of a decentralized platform.


Reply with your take on my ideas

[Teraboy]

First, this was actually true if you are seeing ico only from the trading aspect. i meant you were seeing it from the return after it has been traded on the exchange site.

Q1 take a look on zilliqa and all of those early adopters made more than 15x just in a few weeks after it's traded on the exchange site.

Q2 the sky is the limit and then you can take a conclusion about the total marketcap of crypto in the future.

Q3 There is a lot of new ideas come to the blockchain such as custom pos coin that will be implemented in some projects.

Q4 Not sure about that. But if the developer is not greedy and then a little money was enough to develop a working product. There is a lot of room to growth for those icos collect little amount from ico

[eyesee]

Q1. based on above facts, do you think we would be better off holding into existing projects than upcoming ICOs? or still this year as well, may some ICOs gain 100x?. Or if 2017 was 100x ICOs, do you think this year would be 10x ICOs?

There will continue to be opportunities to see 100x gains this year.  However, it seems the ICO  landscape is evolving and it is more difficult for retail investors to go in on really good projects.  Therefore maybe tougher to achieve 100x for a regular investor, but a strategy to acquire some tokens on the exchange will still come with short term gains, but maybe not quite at the 100x level.

Q2. Where do you think the total market would be within a year?

Conservatively, we will see close to last year's total market cap towards the end of the year.  Completely speculative, but if the market turns and big investors get involved, I think this is definitely achievable.

Q3. Is there new ideas yet to come to blockchain projects?

As blockchain projects progress, there will always be ways to make it better.  So long as there are efficiencies to be gained, innovation will continue and bring opportunities for new projects to enter the market. 

Q4. This is quite subjective. Why do you think many ICOs collect huge amount of money? Do they really need these big amounts to start those projects or are they simply greedy? When an ICO has hardcap at $10m, it is much easier to gain 100x (when it reaches $1B mark), but when an ICO has a hardcap at $50m, $1B market cap would give only 20x. Do you think the community (ICO participants) should force ICOs to lower their hardcap?

I see a combination of both and it depends from project to project, but I think it's unnecessary for tech projects to command $60+ million to produce a product that could be achieved by a fraction of that amount.  Retail investors are evolving and are doing more research on projects compared to last year so it may affect how ICOs execute their sales.

Q5. Many existing projects still have problems (e.g., scaling issues in bitcoin, ethereum, etc.), so do you think there will be new projects solving them and overtaking these existing projects? or when these existing projects have worked many years, they are definitely miles ahead of new projects, so new projects will have short lives until the existing projects solve them? Everyday I'm seeing many ICOs talking how they are going to solve ethereum scaling issue, but I feel when they (existing projects) have worked more more than 2~3 years, and still finding issues, how a new project would solve them earlier!

It will probably be tough to overtake Bitcoin and Ethereum anytime soon, but anything is possible.  There will be projects to improve on those two as a complimentary service, it:s just a matter of can they execute those claims.

Q6. I wouldn't think this would happen, but do you think many governments would regulate crypto ecosystem (to reduce scams projects, money laundering, etc.), but will encourage new innovations such as even 20~40x increase in the whole market is still possible?

There will be attempts to introduce regulations around cryptos and it will certainly affect the market, but how much affect it will have will depend on the regulations themselves and how and where they are being implemented.

[Yuuto]

There has definitely been a ton of repetitive projects that offer the same generic product/solution. Which is why right now I believe that we're undergoing a shift from general platform ICOs, to specialized ICOs that serve particular niches.

This is because of the fact that, unless you've got a massive, experienced team with something revolutionary in terms of your platform, there are already advanced and established altcoins out there.

100x ICOs are going to keep popping up, but without BTC in a bull market, it'll be harder and harder to find. Plus, ICO interest has died down dramatically from the peak of last year, contributing to this decrease in profits. But when the next BTC bull market comes by, I think ICOs may get hyped up once again.

[mpufatzis]

There is always place for ICOs or coins to go 100x or more. The problem is that the last 3 - 4 months the investors hesitate to invest because of the low cap. Many of them have lost money because they bought coins at higher prices. This hesitation makes them skeptical to new ICOs. I've noticed that they invest mostly in exchanges and gamble sites than other probably (my opinion) better ideas, as technology. We have to wait for some time in order the market is going to give profits agai

[krassy]

Everything is just beginning, see for yourself if the unknown coins gets x100 what will happen to the coins is very well-known campaigns? do you think that when the blockchain will be introduced everywhere and large companies will start to dress their ICO, their coins will not show 100x?

[so_stupid]

I just saw these figures, I already felt bad: D, I hope this trend will not stop. Maybe Tezos finally comes out already, although it probably will be a scam (((

[Analyst101]

I mean there might be some ICOs that can go 20x. For example, I hold some Zebi and it’s doing great. I also have some EOSdac which I think it might go even higher. However, compared to last year, we are in recession so it will be hard to see those 100x again. However, who know. It’s possible that the market will recover and we will see some coins going higher than their high during December. So we will see but I am optimistic.