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Author Topic: Social Media Analysis for ICO Hunting [TUTORIAL]  (Read 122 times)
Castlereagh
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February 15, 2018, 09:59:31 AM
Last edit: February 15, 2018, 05:17:33 PM by Castlereagh
Merited by alexzorgo (1)
 #1

Hi there,

First things first, I'm not endorsing a get-rich quick technique here or some kind of magic technique for pinpointing 5, 10 or 100x ICOs here. The technique I'm going to quickly detail below is ONE of many different approaches I like to take when I'm doing my due diligence on prospective ICOs (which includes, obviously, reading the whitepaper, checking out the team, their previous projects, their network, the net worth of the industry, looking at the use case, yada yada yada...). However, I do think this is a useful means of measuring the 'hype' and buzz surrounding an upcoming project, which I think can - loosely - be taken as an indicator of how many people are going to be excited about participating, and potentially, getting hold of the token on exchanges etc. down the line (although it could also just indicate that they are running a MASSIVE bounty campaign, so DYOR too!). The useful thing here is that you get a quantitative result, which can be useful when making cross-project comparisons... so if you are very torn between investing in two different opportunities, something like this could help tip the scale.

Also: see the bottom of the article for an additional link to an alternative tool from alexzorgo.

OK, so first things first we're going to be using a free tool called Social Mention to get our social media 'read'.

Step 1
Go to www.socialmention.com and type the project name into the search box.



Step 2
Making sense of your results:

You're going to see an overwhelming amount of information on the next screen, and links to various mentions: however, what we're interested is the quadrant in the top left:

WePower, being the cool and worthwhile project that it is  Grin, has some nice scores here. To give you a basic outline of what the various metrics mean:
Strength - aka overall Social Media strength, the basic metric of the likelihood the brand is being talked about on social media (this read is taken over the last 24 hours). You basically want this to be as high as possible for a project you want to invest in.
Sentiment - this is the supporter to detractor ratio - how many positive posts vs how many negative posts. It's all well and good if a project is being talked about all over Twitter etc., but if it's all complaints and FOMO then it's worse than useless. In this instance, you want the first number to be as high as possible, and the second to be as low as possible. In WePower's case the ratio's off the charts, 85 positive posts to 0 negative, which is a good sign.
Passion - This is a read of how likely people who post about the brand/project will do so repeatedly - could also be seen as a read on loyalty or retention. Do people really get behind this project and believe in it? A high score here is also what you want.
Reach - Read on the range of influence - how many unique individuals are talking about the project. Again a high score is what we want.

Here are the scores from a somewhat less 'buzzing' ICO for comparison:


Step 3
So really, what we get here is a quick health-check or snapshot of how the ICO has been performing on social media over the last 24 hours. To make deeper comparisons we need to (A) break the data out and process it in something like Excel (B) and average reads over time. However, that goes beyond the scope of this little article. However, if you want to break the data out you need to click "CSV/Excel File" on the right hand task bar:


Eh voila, the data's yours to process as you want. As an example here's a snapshot of what I do with it (I also incorporate review scores):


I hope you find this useful are just ONE MORE technique you can employ when doing your due diligence on projects.

Alternatively, alexzorgo points out that you can use https://solume.io/ for even more in-depth social media vs price analysis for projects that have already launched their tokens. Very cool!
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February 15, 2018, 03:20:56 PM
Merited by Castlereagh (1)
 #2

I agree that the analysis of social networks has bigger value for project evaluation of ICO and forecasting of movement of cost of coins. There are some more resources on the Internet for the analysis of social activity. Here one of them:
https://solume.io/ - Social media analyzed and compared to price.
On twitter there is a bot which automatically each hour posts statistics on the most mentioned coins
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February 15, 2018, 05:14:32 PM
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I agree that the analysis of social networks has bigger value for project evaluation of ICO and forecasting of movement of cost of coins. There are some more resources on the Internet for the analysis of social activity. Here one of them:
https://solume.io/ - Social media analyzed and compared to price.
On twitter there is a bot which automatically each hour posts statistics on the most mentioned coins

Just had a look at this. Very cool alexzorgo - thanks. I'll add it to the list and credit you. Cheers.
KayceeMae
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February 15, 2018, 05:19:57 PM
 #4

this tool look great for ICO hunter , but many ico get very popular on media , and after listing , the bubble explose in the face of investor
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February 15, 2018, 05:37:06 PM
 #5

thanks OP for sharing this interesting info and tools.
Let's try to have many real positive keypoints before deciding to invest in something (ICOs or existing coins) and this
can also help us to choose the best moment to take a profit

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Pechalka
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February 15, 2018, 06:59:37 PM
 #6

Not bad. I don't see more new but your technique is good. I'll try to use this on interesting for me ICO's. Awesome! So many scams and ponzi! Thanks!

cryptamod
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February 15, 2018, 07:15:16 PM
 #7

So are you saying that we should put our investments thru this social media analysis?what if the coin was hyped by untrusthy person like McAfee who is just hyping some coins for him to get more bitcoins?it is not applicable in ICO hunting because theres a lot to be consider in picking a potential ICO,product,developers and founder's credibility,partnerships,roadmap and whitepaper these are just the basic impotant things that we need to check,and not this socialmedia hype,because anyone can hype a coin if you have atleast some resources and of course money to pay those websites,and FUDers.

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Castlereagh
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February 16, 2018, 04:47:28 PM
 #8

So are you saying that we should put our investments thru this social media analysis?what if the coin was hyped by untrusthy person like McAfee who is just hyping some coins for him to get more bitcoins?it is not applicable in ICO hunting because theres a lot to be consider in picking a potential ICO,product,developers and founder's credibility,partnerships,roadmap and whitepaper these are just the basic impotant things that we need to check,and not this socialmedia hype,because anyone can hype a coin if you have atleast some resources and of course money to pay those websites,and FUDers.

Yes, this is of course a valid point, but as I already said - this is just "ONE of many different approaches I like to take when I'm doing my due diligence on prospective ICOs (which includes, obviously, reading the whitepaper, checking out the team, their previous projects, their network, the net worth of the industry, looking at the use case, yada yada yada...)"

Taken in isolation this information is worse than useless. However, taken in context, the outputs from this tool can help you get a quick read on the comparative 'hype' of a range of projects, if you want to factor that in.
alexzorgo
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February 16, 2018, 04:47:49 PM
Last edit: February 16, 2018, 05:12:01 PM by alexzorgo
 #9

So are you saying that we should put our investments thru this social media analysis?what if the coin was hyped by untrusthy person like McAfee who is just hyping some coins for him to get more bitcoins?it is not applicable in ICO hunting because theres a lot to be consider in picking a potential ICO,product,developers and founder's credibility,partnerships,roadmap and whitepaper these are just the basic impotant things that we need to check,and not this socialmedia hype,because anyone can hype a coin if you have atleast some resources and of course money to pay those websites,and FUDers.

Nobody says that one should focus only on social networks when analyzing ICO and cryptomarket. The more tools for analysis, the better and comprehensively you have the opportunity to study projects.
Another resource: https://cointrendz.com/
I am not an employee of the above-mentioned resources and I have no interests in their promotion. Everyone chooses the tools that he trusts

Castlereagh
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February 16, 2018, 04:55:55 PM
 #10

Precisely this:
 
The more tools for analysis, the better and comprehensively you have the opportunity to study projects.

In fact, Cryptamod I have already written a checklist/tutorial for exactly the kind of balanced analytical process you mentioned - perhaps you would find it more useful than this article:

ICO Due Dilligence Checklist and Resources
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2956001.msg30340049#msg30340049

sserge009
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February 16, 2018, 06:48:17 PM
 #11

Indeed, as one of the techniques of analyzing the Baunity this method is very good. I would like to collect a topic of all such (and not only) methods and do something like a manual for a phased assessment of the bounty campaing. is it going to be useful?
Castlereagh
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February 16, 2018, 08:46:12 PM
 #12

Indeed, as one of the techniques of analyzing the Baunity this method is very good. I would like to collect a topic of all such (and not only) methods and do something like a manual for a phased assessment of the bounty campaing. is it going to be useful?

That's a very interesting idea sserge009 - and I think it could potentially be a powerful way for a Bounty Manager (or ICO team) to 'quantitatively' measure the impact of a campaign over time. I guess that would be where breaking the data out into Excel or alternative data processing software would more come into play for tracking and charting results over time.

Also, if you check out the advanced search tab below:


You could monitor the progress of a particular sub-section of the Social Media campaign, e.g. just Twitter or Facebook (e.g. to check whether one might be worth opening up to more participants, or to check on quality). Also, language is an option, so you could also break out the results into particular localised campaigns. Just a thought. Smiley

I think the idea of writing a manual like that would be really useful to people.
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