"the late 19th Century was basically a series of uncontrollable economic panics"

[forbun]

Is this true?

This seems complicated and arbitrary. Why do we even have a Federal Reserve?

As we mentioned, the U.S. didn’t have a Federal Reserve bank for a long time. This meant that the late 19th Century was basically a series of uncontrollable economic panics. It wasn’t until 1907, when the New York Stock Exchange fell 50% and depositors “ran on the bank” to recoup their money, that people warmed to the idea of a central bank and legislation passed.

http://holykaw.alltop.com/14-questions-about-the-u-s-federal-reserve-you-were-too-embarrassed-to-ask

[solex]

The late 19th Century was a period of economic and personal freedom where capitalism worked properly. Despite the economic panics living standards improved fast.

Capitalism is Darwinian, survival of the fittest, which is perfect for corporations where bankruptcy is a cleansing process. The Fed in 1913 began the process of exempting banks from the effects of competition by backstopping them with printed money, although this policy aim could not be fully acheived until the gold standard was abolished in 1971. Nevertheless the first wave of Fed interventions caused the 1920s boom which caused the 1930s bust. What has happened since 1971 shows that 100 years of the Federal Reserve has been a 100% disaster. Instead of small booms and busts the Fed creates booms and defers busts until they are so large they are effectively systemic failures.

[tristan_luther]

The late 19th Century was a period of economic and personal freedom where capitalism worked properly. Despite the economic panics living standards improved fast.

Capitalism is Darwinian, survival of the fittest, which is perfect for corporations where bankruptcy is a cleansing process. The Fed in 1913 began the process of exempting banks from the effects of competition by backstopping them with printed money, although this policy aim could not be fully acheived until the gold standard was abolished in 1971. Nevertheless the first wave of Fed interventions caused the 1920s boom which caused the 1930s bust. What has happened since 1971 shows that 100 years of the Federal Reserve has been a 100% disaster. Instead of small booms and busts the Fed creates booms and defers busts until they are so large they are effectively systemic failures.

http://historysquared.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/image63.png

Well said.

[Adrian-x]

So when exactly would be a good time to tale a home loan?

[ronimacarroni]

So when exactly would be a good time to tale a home loan?

Well they're slowly going up, so I'd say now.

[Adrian-x]

not so fast, credit (loans to businesses and people) is almost 400% of GDP, that alone should have an impact on the increase in housing prices i.e. housing prices today are largely attributed to the increase in money loaned to buy them.  " the Fed creates booms and defers busts until they are so large they are effectively systemic failures" this is what I see. OP's boom cycle is just a little large.

Here's a chart of Japanese land prices during their boom and bust cycle.  The US housing market seems to have followed a similar pattern.

If Bitcoin follows a similar trajectory, where do you think we are on the curve?