LOCALBITCOINS USD wall observer XXX-rated, don't let your kids see this!

[TERA]

So recently bitcoinity added localbitcoins. (http://bitcoinity.org/markets/localbitcoins/USD) Although the volume is low, the depth on the charts is humongous, making the walls anywhere on any of the other (mtgox/bitstamp) wall threads look like tiny picket fences. For example, there are about 250,000btc of buy orders just in-between $120 and $125. Although the low volume might make these walls less relevant, they are still fun to observe.

Here on this thread we can observe the changes in the localbitcoins order book depth. We can also speculate about how this is relevant to the supply and demand of bitcoin as a whole and how it affects prices.



OK I'll start first. It looks like someone just added a 55,000BTC sell wall at $135. I guess this bearish?

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[Le Happy Merchant]

Something to consider is that people can list Bitcoins for sale, which they do not yet own. They may only have a comparable stash of dollars on an exchange to put through at the time of the transaction to minimize risk.

I think these walls are projections of Gox and Stamp for the most part, but a reasonable portion may be held by the seller outright.

The question is, could the orderbook depths on the exchanges cover the claims the users at localbitcoins make? I doubt it.

[Ente]

Difficult.

- Many offers are not backed, those are merely the *maximum* possible amount. Most will put a large sum in there to not miss out, just in case.

- Those offers follow the current exchange rate(s) even more directly than the regular walls. You enter a price formula like "Bitstamp_USD * 1.05". So where you have more or less static walls on the exchanges, these "walls" here adjust to the current spot, automatically.

- Additionally these "offers" are not binding in any way. If, as a seller, you get caught with an offer right before a huge price swing that contact will likely be closed (often with no real cosequence).

However:
- Observing the amount of sell and buy offers might give some insights
- Observing the mean distance to spot price might give some insights
- It's a neat way to see the public opinion on a particular exchange. MtGox_USD to Localbitcoin_USD has some considerable gap, for example ;-)

Ente

[johnyj]

Something to consider is that people can list Bitcoins for sale, which they do not yet own. They may only have a comparable stash of dollars on an exchange to put through at the time of the transaction to minimize risk.

I think these walls are projections of Gox and Stamp for the most part, but a reasonable portion may be held by the seller outright.

The question is, could the orderbook depths on the exchanges cover the claims the users at localbitcoins make? I doubt it.

The bid side can be imaginary since the site have no idea how much fiat money each buyer have, but the ask side should be true since you must first have those coins deposited in your LCB account to be able to sell

[johnyj]

OK I'll start first. It looks like someone just added a 55,000BTC sell wall at $135. I guess this bearish?

Should be error in the data, I don't believe that some one would have 55K coins deposited at LCB, they just had an exploit incident a few days ago. The maximum amount each seller have for my country here is less than 20 coins

[Ente]

Something to consider is that people can list Bitcoins for sale, which they do not yet own. They may only have a comparable stash of dollars on an exchange to put through at the time of the transaction to minimize risk.

I think these walls are projections of Gox and Stamp for the most part, but a reasonable portion may be held by the seller outright.

The question is, could the orderbook depths on the exchanges cover the claims the users at localbitcoins make? I doubt it.

The bid side can be imaginary since the site have no idea how much fiat money each buyer have, but the ask side should be true since you must first have those coins deposited in your LCB account to be able to sell

Nope.
You can create offers as you please.
Even when someone accepts your offer, you don't need a single Bitcoin on LCB. Conveniently, you can even transfer the bitcoins afterwards, the system calculates the total amount and then funds/escrows the trade.

So: the raw amount of offers, which is what we use in the other wallthreads, is totally random.

Ente

[johnyj]

Something to consider is that people can list Bitcoins for sale, which they do not yet own. They may only have a comparable stash of dollars on an exchange to put through at the time of the transaction to minimize risk.

I think these walls are projections of Gox and Stamp for the most part, but a reasonable portion may be held by the seller outright.

The question is, could the orderbook depths on the exchanges cover the claims the users at localbitcoins make? I doubt it.

The bid side can be imaginary since the site have no idea how much fiat money each buyer have, but the ask side should be true since you must first have those coins deposited in your LCB account to be able to sell

Nope.
You can create offers as you please.
Even when someone accepts your offer, you don't need a single Bitcoin on LCB. Conveniently, you can even transfer the bitcoins afterwards, the system calculates the total amount and then funds/escrows the trade.

So: the raw amount of offers, which is what we use in the other wallthreads, is totally random.

Ente

I tried to create an offer without coins, but my ad never showed up before I deposit the corresponding amount of coins into my LCB account

[Ente]

Something to consider is that people can list Bitcoins for sale, which they do not yet own. They may only have a comparable stash of dollars on an exchange to put through at the time of the transaction to minimize risk.

I think these walls are projections of Gox and Stamp for the most part, but a reasonable portion may be held by the seller outright.

The question is, could the orderbook depths on the exchanges cover the claims the users at localbitcoins make? I doubt it.

The bid side can be imaginary since the site have no idea how much fiat money each buyer have, but the ask side should be true since you must first have those coins deposited in your LCB account to be able to sell

Nope.
You can create offers as you please.
Even when someone accepts your offer, you don't need a single Bitcoin on LCB. Conveniently, you can even transfer the bitcoins afterwards, the system calculates the total amount and then funds/escrows the trade.

So: the raw amount of offers, which is what we use in the other wallthreads, is totally random.

Ente

I tried to create an offer without coins, but my ad never showed up before I deposit the corresponding amount of coins into my LCB account

Funny..
Ok, I'm not *that* sure then. I never had zero coins up with an ad at the same time. But I did have larger (BTC selling) offers than the amount of BTC on LCB.

Someone else has to confirm either of us I guess.

Ente

[dserrano5]

I tried to create an offer without coins, but my ad never showed up before I deposit the corresponding amount of coins into my LCB account

I've had a cash-only sell listed for some weeks and I've never had to send localbitcoins any BTC.

[Ente]

I tried to create an offer without coins, but my ad never showed up before I deposit the corresponding amount of coins into my LCB account

I've had a cash-only sell listed for some weeks and I've never had to send localbitcoins any BTC.

Right! I'm cash-only too!
Maybe that's the difference?

Ente

[johnyj]

I tried to create an offer without coins, but my ad never showed up before I deposit the corresponding amount of coins into my LCB account

I've had a cash-only sell listed for some weeks and I've never had to send localbitcoins any BTC.

Right! I'm cash-only too!
Maybe that's the difference?

Ente

That explained it, I only do online sell. So those data for online sell are more accurate, it never shows more bitcoins than I had in LCB account

[TERA]

500,000BTC ($58M USD) buy wall added at $115.

[derpinheimer]

500,000BTC ($58M USD) buy wall added at $115.

 this data is very  fishy. How could a site must of us have never heard of have so much depth. And why would someone put a $60mill bid, bigger than all exchanges put together, at a price point that would never be filled more than 1000 coins.

[MAbtc]

Something to consider is that people can list Bitcoins for sale, which they do not yet own.

This. 

[TERA]

I can imagine the meeting for this transaction being like some Mexican cartel drug exchange with assault rifles.

[BitCoiner2012]

The volume, hmm. Not evidence, but an indicator?

[prophetx]

500,000BTC ($58M USD) buy wall added at $115.

 this data is very  fishy. How could a site must of us have never heard of have so much depth. And why would someone put a $60mill bid, bigger than all exchanges put together, at a price point that would never be filled more than 1000 coins.

i'm going to add a 1,000,000 btc buy wall in an hour 

[derpinheimer]

500,000BTC ($58M USD) buy wall added at $115.

 this data is very  fishy. How could a site must of us have never heard of have so much depth. And why would someone put a $60mill bid, bigger than all exchanges put together, at a price point that would never be filled more than 1000 coins.

i'm going to add a 1,000,000 btc buy wall in an hour 

So bid and ask can be fake?.depth is useless but trades and  volume are real?

[Odalv]

500,000BTC ($58M USD) buy wall added at $115.

 this data is very  fishy. How could a site must of us have never heard of have so much depth. And why would someone put a $60mill bid, bigger than all exchanges put together, at a price point that would never be filled more than 1000 coins.

i'm going to add a 1,000,000 btc buy wall in an hour  

So bid and ask can be fake?.depth is useless but trades and  volume are real?

I'm sure trades and volume are not real, because no one know how many you did really sold/bough.

edit: but I expect much bigger volumes.