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Author Topic: low price because of repeated large sells  (Read 5174 times)
speckman
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July 17, 2011, 06:01:01 AM
 #1

Pardon me if this is obvious but...  I feel like one of the main reasons that the price of bitcoins is hovering around 14, rather than at IDK, 30, 100 Smiley, is that there are massive sells every so often.  I'm not entirely sure that it's just one seller at a time, but it sure looks that way when I look at the charts.  The price will be fairly stable, and then there's like $100K sold in one minute, and the price will drop 50 cents or a dollar.  It will slowly recover, surely greatly helped by massive buys at some point.  But I feel like it can't get too high because these massive sells always sweep out all of the buy orders. 

So it seems to me that there are a few players, whether they're early adopters or big speculators, who are keeping the market a lot lower than it would be otherwise.  Mostly because they can't be bothered to sell small amounts at a time.  And if any of them read this, please spread out your sells a bit.  Smiley
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Alex Beckenham
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July 17, 2011, 06:08:00 AM
 #2

When 1 person sells 10000 coins, maybe 100 people buy 100 coins each.

If this is really what's happening, then I'd prefer to get it over with as soon as possible.

Because after a while the 'early adopter' argument will gradually dissolve.

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July 17, 2011, 06:16:03 AM
 #3

Agree with Alex. You will regret any sell. Go and read a book. It will be up in a couple of months.
Jaime Frontero
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July 17, 2011, 06:42:29 AM
 #4

also agree.

the more Bitcoin get spread around, the better.  because the more people who have them, the more they will be used.

yeah, there's a little bit of short-term pain.  so what?

a couple of months.  maybe even three or four.  we need the time for all the software that's being written and refined to bear fruit, anyway.

and then we bury paypal in an unmarked grave...
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July 17, 2011, 06:51:23 AM
 #5

If some early adopter sell his 99999 coins to get out of the game and he doesn't bother to sell at 13 because they costed nothing to generate, yes, we'll have a little price drop, but now that 99999 coins will be in hands of someone that will value that coins and know that they worth a lot more than 13 Smiley
speckman
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July 17, 2011, 05:48:50 PM
 #6

Well, good points.  I'm more in it for the short-term gain right now, simply because I bought my miners with money that should have gone towards bills and food.  Smiley  But also, I think this is a valid point of view because if the miners don't make a profit, there's not much incentive to mine, and thus the hash rate and security will drop.  But yeah, let's get it over with. 
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July 17, 2011, 06:15:18 PM
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I also think it's good in the long term that the price is going down. The late arrivals were complaining that the price was bubbled, too high, and unaffordable to the mainstream...

Well, here you go, maybe it will drop to the more affordable early-adopter levels again - USD parity or whatever...  Cheesy

B worked just as well at 33 US cents, for everyone except short-term speculators... Wink


macharborguy
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July 17, 2011, 06:29:14 PM
 #8

also agree.

the more Bitcoin get spread around, the better.  because the more people who have them, the more they will be used.

yeah, there's a little bit of short-term pain.  so what?

a couple of months.  maybe even three or four.  we need the time for all the software that's being written and refined to bear fruit, anyway.

and then we bury paypal in an unmarked grave...

And not just "the more people who have them the more they will be used", but also this...

the more people that have them, the more varied the sale prices will be.  1 person is more likely to sell 10,000 bitcoins for the same price on a market, as opposed to 100 people each selling 100 bitcoins at competitive prices

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dishwara
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July 17, 2011, 06:44:50 PM
 #9

I accessed silk road site & they sell ONLY for bitcoins. They also very much upset about the rapid change in bitcoin price.
Silk road closed 3-4 days before Mtgox attacked/hacked. After Mtgox attack price is VERY stable, which silk road wants VERY MUCH to sell anything.
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July 17, 2011, 07:11:43 PM
 #10

also agree.

the more Bitcoin get spread around, the better.  because the more people who have them, the more they will be used.

yeah, there's a little bit of short-term pain.  so what?

a couple of months.  maybe even three or four.  we need the time for all the software that's being written and refined to bear fruit, anyway.

and then we bury paypal in an unmarked grave...

My sentiments exactly! May be right on this, maybe not. But I'm strongly leaning on the former, however illogical i may seem to the naysayers of bitcoin viability and acceptance...time will tell, we shall see.
speckman
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July 17, 2011, 07:25:20 PM
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I also think it's good in the long term that the price is going down. The late arrivals were complaining that the price was bubbled, too high, and unaffordable to the mainstream...

Well, here you go, maybe it will drop to the more affordable early-adopter levels again - USD parity or whatever...  Cheesy

B worked just as well at 33 US cents, for everyone except short-term speculators... Wink



Yeah, it would work great for everyone but the miners who bought their equipment for, let's say $1k, knowing that it would generate a maximum of, say 60-100 bitcoins over its lifetime due to increasing difficulty.  Not cool if BTC drops to 33 cents. Smiley  Ie. in order for the miners to stick around, there has to be some sort of reasonable ratio of difficulty to price.  At the very least to cover electricity (I get it cheap but it's quite possible that I'll spend half of my earnings on the utility bill this month at the current market prices and a difficulty increase).
macharborguy
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July 17, 2011, 08:06:37 PM
 #12

all I am doing right now is mining and hording my coins.  not gonna jump into any markets, not going to play any of these gambling games on the forums.  Not going to do anything that could harm my Wallet.

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NetTecture
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July 17, 2011, 08:24:22 PM
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I also think it's good in the long term that the price is going down. The late arrivals were complaining that the price was bubbled, too high, and unaffordable to the mainstream...

Well, here you go, maybe it will drop to the more affordable early-adopter levels again - USD parity or whatever...  Cheesy

B worked just as well at 33 US cents, for everyone except short-term speculators... Wink



Yeah, it would work great for everyone but the miners who bought their equipment for, let's say $1k, knowing that it would generate a maximum of, say 60-100 bitcoins over its lifetime due to increasing difficulty.  Not cool if BTC drops to 33 cents. Smiley  Ie. in order for the miners to stick around, there has to be some sort of reasonable ratio of difficulty to price.  At the very least to cover electricity (I get it cheap but it's quite possible that I'll spend half of my earnings on the utility bill this month at the current market prices and a difficulty increase).
#

Ok, as a note - if it is not good to mine, stop - enough stop, difficulty goes down.

Second, if you think yo uare cheap in getting electricity and STILL expect to pay 50% you are delusional. I currently mine on my appartment (end user priceing) and my cost is more like 20%. And next month I switch to a commercial space - rent and all paid from the savings in power costs (only). So, if you pay 50% you do NOT get electricity "quite cheap".
pennytrader
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July 18, 2011, 03:58:13 AM
 #14

the more Bitcoin get spread around, the better.  because the more people who have them, the more they will be used.

It reminds me the pump & dump pennystock scheme: from many shares in a few hands, to a few shares in many hands. Smiley

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chuckypalumbo
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July 18, 2011, 04:35:21 AM
 #15

I had to pull my money out of BTC a few days ago, I came out $2 ahead from my initial purchase back in mid June to my exit out of bitcoins earlier this week at $14. It's just been a steady decline pretty much since Mt. Gox came back online. It sucks to see, I was really rooting for bitcoins, but with all the financial turmoil and gold and silver surging, I think you just simply have people pulling their money out of bitcoins, and putting it into precious metals and other places. Bitcoins are a great idea, but I just don't think it's time yet for it's price to be so inflated. A return to levels seen back in April would be more appropriate for now, and if its continues to survive, hopefully it bounces back if the world economy picks up as well. Right now however, gold and silver is where people should be putting their money to protect their wealth.

I bought 25 ounces of physical silver with the money I pulled out of Mt. Gox, and I'm glad I did.

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kiwiasian
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July 18, 2011, 04:36:54 AM
 #16

So you guys think the price will go up in 3 month's time?

Well last month everyone said it would be $100 by this month.
Oh what's that? They were wrong?

Hmmm.

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Bitcoin_Silver_Supply
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July 18, 2011, 04:52:42 AM
 #17

So you guys think the price will go up in 3 month's time?

Well last month everyone said it would be $100 by this month.
Oh what's that? They were wrong?

Hmmm.

Yes they were, because a lot of speculators in BTC are just starting to come to terms over how volatile a truly free market can be and they're learning the hard way. The reality is that noone knows how this is going to go because this currency is backed purely by an idea rather than any tried and tested commodity. Even "Satoshi Nakamoto" has supposedly said he has absolutely no idea what will happen to Bitcoin. It is a very bold and necessary project, but it is simply incredibly volatile and no sense of community or commitment among users is going to change that.

If you're investing heavily be sure you can afford to lose it all. If you can you may luck out and end up quite rich off a bold endeavor. If you can't you are quite likely to end up royally screwed.
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July 18, 2011, 05:08:38 AM
 #18

I think what we're seeing is simply a few early adopters dumping their coins for what they can get because they think the party is over & that we will never again see $30 highs (or at least not for a very long time) &/or they believe the price is going to drop back to < $10, so their getting what they can for them.

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Alex Beckenham
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July 18, 2011, 05:33:14 AM
 #19

I think what we're seeing is simply a few early adopters dumping there coins for what they can get because they think the party is over & that we will never again see $30 highs (or at least not for a very long time) &/or they believe the price is going to drop back to < $10, so their getting what they can for them.

And/or they don't want to sell but are being forced to by unforeseen personal circumstances. (i.e. Need cash urgently, must sell bitcoins)

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July 18, 2011, 06:08:22 AM
 #20

all I am doing right now is mining and hording my coins.  not gonna jump into any markets, not going to play any of these gambling games on the forums. 
If you're mining and hoarding Bitcoins, you're speculating. It's exactly as if you made some money, then spent it by buying Bitcoins for speculation purposes.
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