Please GUESS!!

[superdry]

Bitcoins are slowly but surely running out....

At the time of writing this there are currently 11674425 in circulation having been mined. So we are nearly at the 12 Million mark. The cap is at 21 Million.

Recent stats show:

Blocks Mined   174.00
Time Between Blocks   8.28 (minutes)
Bitcoins Mined   4,350 BTC

The stats are for the last 24 hour period.

So my question is this - WHAT DATE DO YOU PREDICT THE BITCOINS TO ALL HAVE BEEN MINED??

There are going to be more and more miners added to the network as time goes along so take this into consideration.

If someone gets the date right we will try and get the owner of JUST-DICE.COM to sponsor a PRIZE!

[Mooshire]

All I read was "Maybe I can get some person that has more money than me to give it away because i'm a greedy little bitch"
All joking aside, Stunna would probably be more likely to do a giveaway

[superdry]

Haha I wish I had the money to give away! I will be held to a 0.10 Bitcoin giveaway if someone guesses the correct date though. And obviously that means guessing the date long before the end - not a few days before!

So who is Stunna and can we get in touch with him? This will be a great way to get publicity for anyones website if a prize is offered... Well more than my .10 Bitcoin anyway!

[Birdy]

You will have to wait at least 50+ years until the giveaway then...
The block reward halves after a certain amount of Bitcoins are mined, so it will take very long until the last rewards are given.

[superdry]

Might aswel give it a shot birdy - So you think 2063? I think much sooner.....

[Singlebyte]

2140

[superdry]

Wow, you really think it will take that long? If it does get harder to mine wont less and less people think that its worth the electricity and stop befpre the end?

[Singlebyte]

Wow, you really think it will take that long? If it does get harder to mine wont less and less people think that its worth the electricity and stop befpre the end?

Yep...that is how they were built.  They will keep halving the block rewards till 2140.  You can read more on the basics here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin

In addition to archiving transactions, each new ledger update creates some newly minted bitcoins. The number of new bitcoins created in each update is halved every 4 years until the year 2140 when this number will round down to zero. At that time no more bitcoins will be added into circulation and the total number of bitcoins will have reached a maximum of 21 million bitcoins.

[Birdy]

2140

False, it will be ealier than 2140 ^^
Network power is more likely to grow than to drop and difficulty adjustments lag behind.

My guess would be 2120.

[Singlebyte]

2140

False, it will be ealier than 2140 ^^
Network power is more likely to grow than to drop and difficulty adjustments lag behind.

The difficulty adjusts to keep in line with the 2140 goal.  There may be some variance near the end.....but network power is factored into the equation.  As network power increases, so does difficulty to keep the inflation at its calculated date.


2120 may be realistic near the end of mining but I doubt.  I know network power is out pacing difficulty and there is a lag.  But it is nowhere where these users are predicting.  None of us will know however because it is beyond our lifetime (unless life expectancy increase with new innovation!)

[Dabs]

2139.

[superdry]

Dabs are you debs from JUST DICE?

[Birdy]

2140

False, it will be ealier than 2140 ^^
Network power is more likely to grow than to drop and difficulty adjustments lag behind.

The difficulty adjusts to keep in line with the 2140 goal.  There may be some variance near the end.....but network power is factored into the equation.  As network power increases, so does difficulty to keep the inflation at its calculated date.

When the adjustment happens there are already some days zapped away from the goal. (or added in case the network power drops, but that is way more unlikely)

[Dabs]

Dabs are you debs from JUST DICE?

No I am not. Debs is the girlfriend of dooglus.

Buy a ticket to my lotto. 1 BTC jackpot.

[superdry]

Where are the details?

[Singlebyte]

You will have to wait at least 50+ years until the giveaway then...
The block reward halves after a certain amount of Bitcoins are mined, so it will take very long until the last rewards are given.

Not sure why you first posted only 50+ years and now you are guessing 2120 (100+ years).  You seem to have a knowledge how it works but your first guess was way off.

I think me and Dabs are the closest and we should split the prize! 

[Birdy]

You will have to wait at least 50+ years until the giveaway then...
The block reward halves after a certain amount of Bitcoins are mined, so it will take very long until the last rewards are given.

Not sure why you first posted only 50+ years and now you are guessing 2120 (100+ years).  You seem to have a knowledge how it works but your first guess was way off.

I think me and Dabs are the closest and we should split the prize!  

The first one wasn't supposed to be a guess, it was more like "there is no way it could be less than 50 years/any time soon"

I would bet that you are more than 10 years off with your estimation, but we will not be around anymore to find that out, I guess xD

[viboracecata]

The difficulty is growing, but meantime the mining rig evolves as fast, as common said, the time would be 5 years later.

[superdry]

so you guess 2018?

[BurtW]

The final 0.00000001 BTC will be mined on March 2, 2138.

You can hold me to that.  If it does not happen on that exact date look dig me up and I will give you $1000 worth of BTC.  Of course that will be exactly 0.00001 BTC on that date.  You can hold me to that also.