price about to go UP - reason all the overpriced asics

[superduh]

well
after careful thinking
it's my conclusion that most asics on the market will not ROI in bitcoins.
it's also quite apparent NOW once things are put in perspective that that noone will be getting ROI in fiat currency as well.
the daily bitcoin amount is limited and the amount of money (bitcoins and fiat) spent on getting a tiny portion of the pie is now insanely high.
this means that if miners are rational they will all STOP selling
otherwise they will be mining AND selling at a loss. they'd have to be either altruistic or stupid.
hence i believe in the next coming months most miners will HOLD their btc and not sell at current prices no matter what (unless they are about to be evicted or something)
nothing to do with any price movements or looking at trading patterns just stating obvious facts.
this will squeeze the supply and slowly drive prices up.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost-push_inflation (chodpaba called it)

[superduh]

That would suggest a model of Cost Push inflation.

yes,  that, thanks for bring about the correct term

[mgio]

well
after careful thinking
it's my conclusion that most asics on the market will not ROI in bitcoins.
it's also quite apparent NOW once things are put in perspective that that noone will be getting ROI in fiat currency as well.
the daily bitcoin amount is limited and the amount of money (bitcoins and fiat) spent on getting a tiny portion of the pie is now insanely high.
this means that if miners are rational they will all STOP selling
otherwise they will be mining AND selling at a loss. they'd have to be either altruistic or stupid.
hence i believe in the next coming months most miners will HOLD their btc and not sell at current prices no matter what (unless they are about to be evicted or something)
nothing to do with any price movements or looking at trading patterns just stating obvious facts.
this will squeeze the supply and slowly drive prices up.

That's not how it works.

If anything, miners will have to sell the BTC they mine to cover the costs of their expensive mining equipment.

I know I have charged the pre-orders I have on credit cards. I will sell the first few coins I mine to pay off those credit cards once those miners arrive.

Furthermore, no one will mine at a loss in the sense that the miners will make more BTC than it costs to run them. They may not make back their original investment but that is no reason to sit and hold the BTC. Since bitcoin can go both up and down and no one can predict which way it will go, you will make no more money if you sit and hold than if you sell right away.

[ElectricMucus]

It's BitPays venture capital money used to "not sell" the Bitcoins which were payment for the asics.

[superduh]

well
after careful thinking
it's my conclusion that most asics on the market will not ROI in bitcoins.
it's also quite apparent NOW once things are put in perspective that that noone will be getting ROI in fiat currency as well.
the daily bitcoin amount is limited and the amount of money (bitcoins and fiat) spent on getting a tiny portion of the pie is now insanely high.
this means that if miners are rational they will all STOP selling
otherwise they will be mining AND selling at a loss. they'd have to be either altruistic or stupid.
hence i believe in the next coming months most miners will HOLD their btc and not sell at current prices no matter what (unless they are about to be evicted or something)
nothing to do with any price movements or looking at trading patterns just stating obvious facts.
this will squeeze the supply and slowly drive prices up.

That's not how it works.

If anything, miners will have to sell the BTC they mine to cover the costs of their expensive mining equipment.

I know I have charged the pre-orders I have on credit cards. I will sell the first few coins I mine to pay off those credit cards once those miners arrive.

Furthermore, no one will mine at a loss in the sense that the miners will make more BTC than it costs to run them. They may not make back their original investment but that is no reason to sit and hold the BTC. Since bitcoin can go both up and down and no one can predict which way it will go, you will make no more money if you sit and hold than if you sell right away.

mgio, i don't think you understood my post or the financial implications you have signed up for by putting it on your credit card.
you should just cancel your preorder since it sounds like you don't actually understand what you signed up for.
in really easy terms: the money you spent on preorder on credit card will *never* be recovered at the current exchange rate.
this means you will NOT be able to pay off your credit card for this purchase AT ALL. hence what i mean by saying will not ROI  (return on investment). it's not like the first few mined coins will pay off your credit card and the rest will be icing on the cake.

what this means is that you are going into DEBT and will carry a portion of your balance with interest into the future until you somehow pay it off.
the only way you can "pay off" the credit card is if prices go UP..... by a lot.
don't worry pretty much EVERYONE is in the same boat - that's why i made this topic.

**** "first few coins" will never pay off the cost of hardware at current exchange rate- ever.
miners are better off "hoarding" their coins until prices go up to "pay off" their equipment.

[glub0x]

I belive you are right. Yeah we can t predict the future but nobody will sell at loss so in a way miners are actually buying bitcoin at a price near 200 $ when they buy asic from bfl (including delay) or asicminer...

[superduh]

I belive you are right. Yeah we can t predict the future but nobody will sell at loss so in a way miners are actually buying bitcoin at a price near 200 $ when they buy asic from bfl (including delay) or asicminer...

you got it except i'd be guessing that the price is much higher than $200 i think more than $400+ (just a guess)

[johnyj]

And if they don't sell, the daily coin supply will shrink, the price will go up for sure

Here is a poll of miner's opinion, so far I can see that only part of the miners sell the coins immediately, most possibly those early ASIC owners who have already ROIed
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=296264.0

[Ray Anastasio]

Why is the assumption that miners are jobless bums living in squalor?  Can't they make money working while their rigs mine?

[ElectricMucus]

Why is the assumption that miners are jobless bums living in squalor?  Can't they make money working while their rigs mine?

Because they have heat stroke induced brain damage.

[johnyj]

Actually the supply side is not a big problem, it will shrink no matter what, but the demand side is more difficult to estimate

The need for transaction is small, the purchase is mostly driven by long term investment. If bitcoin is allowed in the pension fond's investment portfolio, then the demand will rise fast, need some kind of breakthrough in wall street, but that will be tough

Savers like bitcoin, where are those savers?

[superduh]

based on my current  estimates miners are paying hefty price for their machines. no machine received in the last 2 months with ROI at current prices in fiat (def not in btc). currently the price miners have paid for their machines is at minimum $200! crazy irrational miners should've just held unto their coins or  bought more on their credit cards. i feel bad for those who have to pay off their credit cards

[adamstgBit]

based on my current  estimates miners are paying hefty price for their machines. no machine received in the last 2 months with ROI at current prices in fiat (def not in btc). currently the price miners have paid for their machines is at minimum $200! crazy irrational miners should've just held unto their coins or  bought more on their credit cards. i feel bad for those who have to pay off their credit cards

I spent over 50BTC on mining  in the cloud.

current hash rate: 0.00Gh/s

[superduh]

based on my current  estimates miners are paying hefty price for their machines. no machine received in the last 2 months with ROI at current prices in fiat (def not in btc). currently the price miners have paid for their machines is at minimum $200! crazy irrational miners should've just held unto their coins or  bought more on their credit cards. i feel bad for those who have to pay off their credit cards

I spent over 50BTC on mining  in the cloud.

current hash rate: 0.00Gh/s

sorry to hear...
the bloodbath is about to start in the next 1/2 months. it'll be bloody

did you get a bfl mining contract or something?

[adamstgBit]

based on my current  estimates miners are paying hefty price for their machines. no machine received in the last 2 months with ROI at current prices in fiat (def not in btc). currently the price miners have paid for their machines is at minimum $200! crazy irrational miners should've just held unto their coins or  bought more on their credit cards. i feel bad for those who have to pay off their credit cards

I spent over 50BTC on mining  in the cloud.

current hash rate: 0.00Gh/s

sorry to hear...
the bloodbath is about to start in the next 1/2 months. it'll be bloody

did you get a bfl mining contract or something?

couldhashing

[johnyj]

I guess lots of pre-order money will start to be refunded (Through CC/paypal) and reach exchange later

[DigitalHermit]

this means that if miners are rational they will all STOP selling
otherwise they will be mining AND selling at a loss. they'd have to be either altruistic or stupid.
hence i believe in the next coming months most miners will HOLD their btc and not sell at current prices no

And since the anecdotal evidence is that most miners are buying their mining rigs on credit, they will have to either repay or default on their credit cards. Unless all miners decide to just default on their credit repayment, that means they will be forced to sell BTC at less than the cost they paid to mine them, driving the cost DOWN.

I want to personally thank miners for doing this and providing cheap BTC for those of us who are simply buying!  

[superduh]

this means that if miners are rational they will all STOP selling
otherwise they will be mining AND selling at a loss. they'd have to be either altruistic or stupid.
hence i believe in the next coming months most miners will HOLD their btc and not sell at current prices no

And since the anecdotal evidence is that most miners are buying their mining rigs on credit, they will have to either repay or default on their credit cards. Unless all miners decide to just default on their credit repayment, that means they will be forced to sell BTC at less than the cost they paid to mine them, driving the cost DOWN.

I want to personally thank miners for doing this and providing cheap BTC for those of us who are simply buying!  

doubt it, what's the point of only partially repaying off your credit card at all. they'll just make minimum payments and wait it out. only mgio here sounds like he wants to sell at a neverending loss

[wachtwoord]

based on my current  estimates miners are paying hefty price for their machines. no machine received in the last 2 months with ROI at current prices in fiat (def not in btc). currently the price miners have paid for their machines is at minimum $200! crazy irrational miners should've just held unto their coins or  bought more on their credit cards. i feel bad for those who have to pay off their credit cards

I spent over 50BTC on mining  in the cloud.

current hash rate: 0.00Gh/s

sorry to hear...
the bloodbath is about to start in the next 1/2 months. it'll be bloody

did you get a bfl mining contract or something?

couldhashing

Is Thursday still the anticipated day for mining to begin?

[adamstgBit]

based on my current  estimates miners are paying hefty price for their machines. no machine received in the last 2 months with ROI at current prices in fiat (def not in btc). currently the price miners have paid for their machines is at minimum $200! crazy irrational miners should've just held unto their coins or  bought more on their credit cards. i feel bad for those who have to pay off their credit cards

I spent over 50BTC on mining  in the cloud.

current hash rate: 0.00Gh/s

sorry to hear...
the bloodbath is about to start in the next 1/2 months. it'll be bloody

did you get a bfl mining contract or something?

couldhashing

Is Thursday still the anticipated day for mining to begin?

yes