High&Low game In the High & Low game, we will quantify the war risks occurring in North Korea and predict the trend every 10 minutes. A simple game predicting whether it is above or below the red line in 10 minutes, RKM will be awarded to the winner.
・Analysis methodRegarding war risk, it is a citizen's atmosphere such as political factors, media coverage and SNS. We comprehensively compare the important items that affect the overall evaluation with the correlation coefficient with the comprehensive evaluation. However, individual factors affecting comprehensive evaluation and comprehensive risk degree have positive factors and negative factors.
With positive factors, there is no problem because it does not lead to war risk even though the evaluation is low, but it can be said that war risk is almost nothing if the numerical value is large.
Conversely, there are factors that lower overall evaluation, even if the evaluation is low. This is a negative factor. It includes political remarks and political actions. These factors tend to heat up media coverage and the risk of war will inevitably rise.
Analysis data is collected from news articles and Twitter, and natural sentences are evaluated with a score of 10 points. The analysis is calculated for each evaluation item by the following procedure.
1. Calculate the average value of operation evaluation (overall average value of overall evaluation)
2. Calculate the average value for each evaluation item (overall average value of overall evaluation)
3. Classified as good evaluation sample and bad evaluation sample for each evaluation item (median (5 points) is not included in either)
4. For the evaluation of positive and negative, use the following calculation formulacalculation formula
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