Will any new ASIC make ROI?

[PaperClip]

I want to buy an ASIC for me. I started to check what devices are now available on market and tried to calculate their profit...

I have assumed best case scenario for difficulty increase - 30M for next period, and then additional 5M for each consecutive period (this is tendency for few months already): next increase will be 30M, then 35M, then 40M, etc

I have compared ASICs from page http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/.
With difficulty increase described above - everything is perfect for almost any new device that comes online in late 2013 and early 2014 (except BFL, even in best case their Monarch will take two ears until ROI).

But, its not like having only one existing device of that type in the world. In reality as soon as these devices will start to appear online - difficulty increase will become huuuge comparing to current. Cointerra promises to deliver 2000TH/s in December. And now whole BTC network is only around 806 TH/s. And there are at least 3 more companies that will deliver another huge amount of TH/s in few months.

Soo, in January 2014 any currently available ASIC will become worthless, right?
I suppose there is only one option - to wait for new type of Bitcoin miners, that will be superior to ASICs?

[Buffer Overflow]

ASICs aren't designed to profit the consumer. They exist to profit the manufacturer only.

Why not just buy the Bitcoins you need?

[PaperClip]

But I want to have free bitcoins!

ASICs aren't designed to profit the consumer. They exist to profit the manufacturer only.

Why not just buy the Bitcoins you need?

But I want to have free bitcoins

[Meizirkki]

But I want to have free bitcoins!

ASICs aren't designed to profit the consumer. They exist to profit the manufacturer only.

Why not just buy the Bitcoins you need?

But I want to have free bitcoins

There are two potential ways to get free bitcoins. Gambling and ASICs.

In reality both of the two have a guarranteed loss somewhere between 1-100%, but you might just get lucky!

[erk]

But I want to have free bitcoins!

ASICs aren't designed to profit the consumer. They exist to profit the manufacturer only.

Why not just buy the Bitcoins you need?

But I want to have free bitcoins

There are two potential ways to get free bitcoins. Gambling and ASICs.

In reality both of the two have a guarranteed loss somewhere between 1-100%, but you might just get lucky!

Neither are free, gambling requires you put money down first, and ASICs require masses of electricity to farm a single Bitcoin.

[DobZombie]

But I want to have free bitcoins!

ASICs aren't designed to profit the consumer. They exist to profit the manufacturer only.

Why not just buy the Bitcoins you need?

But I want to have free bitcoins

This statement just made my accountant combust

O.o

[Humax]

Buying ASIC is the most retarded thing I've ever done in my life!

I didn't want to get off the Bitcoin mining train and thought that I could continue mining for years to come with ASIC.
Idea was, get the investments back at end of this year and continue mining for some profit. Talking about miscalculation.........

The reality is that we ruined the mining business by buying ASIC.
All the hashing power we buy/ordered distributed to the increase of hashing power by several times.
Manufacturers use the profit to produce more miners for themselves than we could buy.
Every step we take, the manufacturer takes 3 steps. (at least)
So, we are going backwards by every step we take.

Starting from now, I won't buy any ASIC and stick to the few bitcoins I got left.
If I got money to spare, I will buy plain bitcoins! or go on vacation.....

So the best thing to do is NOT to buy any ASICs! (imho)

[bcp19]

But I want to have free bitcoins!

ASICs aren't designed to profit the consumer. They exist to profit the manufacturer only.

Why not just buy the Bitcoins you need?

But I want to have free bitcoins

Look into Faucets.  Those are the only true 'free' bitcoins.

As for buying ASICs, dude, wait at least 6 months til things stabalize or you're tossing money in the trash.

[ujka]

.
...
Manufacturers use the profit to produce more miners for themselves than we could buy.
Every step we take, the manufacturer takes 3 steps. (at least)
So, we are going backwards by every step we take.

Starting from now, I won't buy any ASIC and stick to the few bitcoins I got left.
If I got money to spare, I will buy plain bitcoins! or go on vacation.....

+1
You said that plain and right.

[superduh]

No,  you want bitcoins,  twice as cheap to just buy now

[Trongersoll]

But I want to have free bitcoins!

ASICs aren't designed to profit the consumer. They exist to profit the manufacturer only.

Why not just buy the Bitcoins you need?

But I want to have free bitcoins

Look into Faucets.  Those are the only true 'free' bitcoins.
As for buying ASICs, dude, wait at least 6 months til things stabalize or you're tossing money in the trash.

heh, you didn't just say that. Just incase anyone doesn't get it. Faucets cost you more to consolidate the Dust they produce than they pay out. Also Electricity is also used to tap Faucets.

[davewr2013]

Some ASIC units will have a positive ROI (Return On Investment)

Others will have a negative ROI.

That should answer the question.

If you want opinions on which are which -- that is a different question .

[superduh]

btw, see this https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=297657.0 thread to get an idea of what current outlook looks like based on recent hardware deliveres

[DyslexicZombei]

HashFast has a Flash Sale. Looks like demand had slowed as I only saw 3 separate Sierra orders. I may have lit a fire under John S. to move some stock via PM yesterday morning; you can see the PM (and loverly blue ROI projections) on Page 2 of my R3/R4 Flash Sale thread for a HashFast. I may have pissed him off because he or they didn't include me in the email blast even though I have a paid R1 order & my email on record w/ them from tons of emails.

We managed to sell out 100 shares in an MPP Sierra in less than 12 hours thanks to this Flash Sales and my timely organization skills.

FWIW, and of course I'm not your attorney or financial advisor *AND* I'm trying to sell you at-cost shares w/ 20-30 min. UPS backup at only 2.75% hosting, but FCTaiChi's and updated TGB #s show a modest profit if you follow the links on Page 2 of that thread I mentioned.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=299171.0;all

To me: it looks like the sweet spot to sell them used would be at the 5-7 month mark when you're in the blue (or black), but that's just my opinion.  

Aloha!
DZ

[klondike_bar]

watch bitfury. they have some good headroom to overclock and are power efficient enough to battle many gen2 designs

[erk]

watch bitfury. they have some good headroom to overclock and are power efficient enough to battle many gen2 designs

They are only power efficient when you under clock them at the standard 2GH/s per chip speed, the efficiency drops rapidly when you go faster.

[squall1066]

ASIC's have done two things.

1) Make the rich, Richer.
2) Make the poor, Poorer.

Don't buy an ASIC unless you have adequate funds to get a few TH's, Anything less at this point is throwing money away, If you do not have this amount of funds at the ready, And you still want "in" Then buy them.

Nuff said.

[erk]

ASIC's have done two things.

1) Make the rich, Richer.
2) Make the poor, Poorer.

Don't buy an ASIC unless you have adequate funds to get a few TH's, Anything less at this point is throwing money away, If you do not have this amount of funds at the ready, And you still want "in" Then buy them.

Nuff said.

I totally disagree, once you go above a certain size mining rig, you enter the realm of requiring aircon  and data center hosting, both of which rapidly chew into the profits. I believe the future of ASICs are in the multitude of small backyard non-aiircon setups.