BTC in slow free fall?

[WinterWarrior]

It's the summer, price will slowly go down until mid september. Then, it will start to massively grow again.

Good point, I plan on getting my whole Comp Sci dept in on a the mining when school starts back up again

[Mushroomized]

It is no doubt the summer miner kiddies  .

[a63ntsm1th]

Im no technical analyst, but IMO i think the BTC market is far to new and far to inefficient to facilitate any serious technical analysis. Also until bitcoin becomes a more widely trusted and used currency i think pure speculation and rumor will bring much more volatility in the future.

Part of the problem is there are very few options to either sell the market short or in any way bet the market is going to go down, other than selling your own BTC.

[Desolator]

I'm thinking a ton of people used it to pay for their new graphics cards and when they were paid off, they traded for USD and stopped overworking their pretty new card and started using it for just gaming.  Or people saw the price falling and too many people are trying to hop off the currency which also means they're likely to stop mining which means we make more money and eventually BTC will recover in price so if it drops below $5/BTC I'm definitely doing a USD -> BTC transfer and sitting on em.

[Desolator]

It's the summer, price will slowly go down until mid september. Then, it will start to massively grow again.

Good point, I plan on getting my whole Comp Sci dept in on a the mining when school starts back up again

I think you're going to use about 10,000W to generate one decent radeon card worth of MH/s lol.  Unless you're all gamers in there, who knows could be the autocad lab lol.  But CPU only well, core 2 duos are generally around 8MH/s and my brand new i5-2400 1155 socket can do about 16 MH/s.  My GTS450 can do about 40 MH/s.  So unless you specifically happen to have modern model radeon cards in those PCs, it's going to be pretty power inefficient.

[John Tobey]

I see two factors keeping the price down for the medium term: the MtGox fiasco (where the exchange-reported value reached $0.01 after a high above $30) and the newbie posting policy (discouraging new users).

High volatility has long been a BTC weakness, though not applicable to block-chain currencies in general.  The MtGox fiasco has dramatically demonstrated this.  High volatility is IMO due to an early adoption rate too slow for the simplistic, programmed inflation curve, and a resulting overhang of BTC concentration.

The price rise up to June could not have come without a steady influx of users, and this forum must have formed many users' first impressions.  It certainly helped form mine.  Now new users must post only in the Newbies section (as has been argued as nauseam, I won't repeat).  This must put a wet blanket on their enthusiasm.

By the way, it's interesting that this thread is under Newbies.  I'm not a newbie, but I look first to the Newbies section for interesting reading.  I find the other sections something of a self-congratulatory echo chamber.

[72289]

It'll come back up. All currencies have depressions, and right now Bitcoin is having a slight recession. No biggie

[netrin]

Look further back, prior to the speculation spike caused by media events, 1 BTC was hovering around US$9. So if the Silkroad and other events did not bring Bitcoin into the limelight, US$9 would likely had be the "real" value of 1 BTC. What we're seeing now, in my non-financially trained opinion, is merely market correction to the correct valuation, quite possibly $9~$10 before it will climb up again.

Real = Final stable final value? Xephan meet exponential growth. Logarithmic graph please meet Xephan.

[gigabytecoin]

Hrmmm, didn't know there was such thing as a slow free fall

I wouldn't worry too much.

Just because bitcoins are not jumping $5 per day does not mean we are tanking.

Business as usual as far as I am concerned.

[BrimStone]

Think of this as "speculative investing" with the early adopters making the first profits.  The costs involved at the beginning were low and the profits were easy.

As time goes on the interest will go up and people will find ways to make money.  This will cause fluctuation in the markets until it stabilizes again.

The problem is that is interest in bitcoins does not continue, it will die.  There has to be a reason for people to make the effort to participate.  (Unfortunately so far that has been for the most legal reasons)

[Xephan]

Look further back, prior to the speculation spike caused by media events, 1 BTC was hovering around US$9. So if the Silkroad and other events did not bring Bitcoin into the limelight, US$9 would likely had be the "real" value of 1 BTC. What we're seeing now, in my non-financially trained opinion, is merely market correction to the correct valuation, quite possibly $9~$10 before it will climb up again.

Real = Final stable final value? Xephan meet exponential growth. Logarithmic graph please meet Xephan.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?m=mtgoxUSD&c=1&s=2010-11-01&e=2011-06-01&l=1&p=0&t=S&m1=10&a2=&m2=25

Ah damn, didn't check the scale!

[Oldminer]

Ah damn, didn't check the scale!

lol yea Synaptic commonly makes the same mistake. Last I heard he was reading the charts upside down..

[gigabytecoin]

I've been keeping records of various statistics, including the current value of the BTC and have noticed it steadily declining over the last few weeks.  I don't think I've seen it go up once.  Does anyone know what's going on?  The highest value I have for the BTC is from when I began keeping records, on 6/16/11.  Then it was 16.7 USD/BTC.  Today, 12.52

Since I started watching at 2:00, the sun has only gone down. It looks like it is going all the way down. What will the earth do without the sun? /sarcasm

You really need to use a longer history to learn anything about the price of bitcoins. The price is still more than twice as high as when I started watching just a couple months ago.

I found bitcoins when they were trading at about $0.60 USD/BTC. That was only back in March.

IMO we are on a steady, rocketing incline. Up 15 times over the previous 4 months. Woohooooooooooo!!!!!!!!

[bonker]

Is "slow free fall" like a "slow crash" ?

a very slow crash

[netrin]

Since I started watching at 2:00, the sun has only gone down. It looks like it is going all the way down. What will the earth do without the sun? /sarcasm

You really need to use a longer history to learn anything about the price of bitcoins. The price is still more than twice as high as when I started watching just a couple months ago.

Since December the Sun plunged into Darkness. Oh no! We'll never see $0.4 again!!!



EDIT: Pardon the sarcasm, I didn't realize this was the newbie section. For your first lesson, the sun set three times and has always risen again.

[Xephan]

lol yea Synaptic commonly makes the same mistake. Last I heard he was reading the charts upside down..

LOL that was wicked